The Supercomputer predicts that Man Utd's chances of reaching the round of 16 are only a fraction of those of their two opponents in Group A, Copenhagen and Galatasaray.
On November 30, supercomputer Betsie predicted that Man Utd only had a 7.2% chance of passing the Champions League group stage, much lower than Copenhagen's 53.84% and Galatasaray's 39.03%.
In the most recent round of Group A matches this week, Man Utd drew 3-3 at Galatasaray, while Copenhagen drew 0-0 at Bayern. The English representative is currently at the bottom with four points after five matches. Meanwhile, with 13 points, Bayern has won the first ticket and the top position in the group. Copenhagen and Galatasaray are ranked right above Man Utd, with five points each. To win the remaining ticket to the next round, the "Red Devils" need to beat Bayern in the final round, and hope that the match between Copenhagen and Galatasaray ends in a draw.
Man Utd players were disappointed in the 3-3 draw with Galatasaray in the fifth round of the Champions League group stage on the evening of November 28, at Ali Sami Yen Stadium, Turkey. Photo: Reuters
The Betsie calculator was created by bookmaker Bettingexpert. The predictions are based on 100,000 simulations of this season's Champions League campaign, results from the start of the season in every league and every country involved, the expectations of each team before the tournament and the expected number of goals in each match.
The computer predicts that Man City has a 28.89% chance of successfully defending the title. This is much higher than the other two candidates, Bayern with 16.19% and Real Madrid with 12.27%. The chance of winning the title for Man Utd is 0.65%.
Betsie's computer predictions for the top 12 teams. From left are the columns: team name, chance of winning the title, chance of reaching the final and chance of getting through the group stage. Photo: Sun
Dortmund are top of Group F with 10 points and have already secured one of the two tickets to the next round. Meanwhile, PSG have only seven points, while Newcastle and Milan both have five points. Newcastle have a better head-to-head record than PSG, having won 4-1 and drawn 1-1 in their two meetings. Dortmund still need at least a draw with PSG in their final match to keep their lead. Meanwhile, Newcastle need to beat Milan in their remaining match, while hoping PSG either draw or lose to Dortmund.
According to UEFA regulations, when two or more teams are tied on points, the positions will be determined by the following priorities: points from head-to-head matches, goal difference from head-to-head matches and goals scored in head-to-head matches. If the indexes are still level, UEFA will also consider the results of each team's six group stage matches.
The final round of Champions League group stage matches will take place on December 12 and 13.
Thanh Quy (according to Bettingexpert )
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