Domestic exchange rates have cooled down significantly as the USD weakens - Photo: QUANG DINH
USD price increases at banks
The State Bank announced the central exchange rate of the Vietnamese Dong to the USD on September 18 at 24,151 VND, an increase of 10 VND compared to yesterday.
At commercial banks, the USD/VND exchange rate also increased simultaneously. At Vietcombank, the bank bought and sold USD at the end of the day at 24,440 - 24,810 VND, an increase of 40 VND compared to the previous session.
During the session, many banks adjusted the USD price up by 80 VND/USD compared to yesterday. But at the end of the afternoon session, the USD price at many banks cooled down, the increase in many places narrowed to only 10-20 VND, or some places only increased the buying price.
The domestic USD/VND exchange rate has rebounded after many days of decline. Notably, the sudden upward trend occurred right before the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, focusing on interest rate adjustment.
Observing the international market, the domestic exchange rate movement today is similar to the trend of the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback's fluctuations against 6 major currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF). Today, DXY increased by 0.25%, reaching 101.01 points, then fell back to 100.72.
Ms. Tran Thi Khanh Hien - Director of Analysis at MB Securities (MBS) - said that the DXY index plummeted throughout August. Starting the month at 104.4, the DXY index continuously decreased and hit bottom at 100.6 - the lowest level in more than a year on August 27.
This development occurred in the context of inflation in the US having cooled down significantly. Thereby, the Fed chairman confidently declared the US victory in the fight against inflation and believed that it was time to adjust policy.
However, the pace of interest rate cuts will depend on data and the outlook for the US economy, according to MBS experts.
By the end of the month, the USD recovered to 101.7 after the US raised its second quarter GDP growth to 3%, showing that the economy is still recovering positively.
With positive inflation data, the Fed is expected to cut 0.25 percentage points, bringing interest rates to 5% - 5.25% in September. This is 0.5 percentage points lower than the forecast of many economists.
Will the exchange rate at the end of the year be below 25,000 VND?
According to Ms. Hien, the recent weakening of the USD has pushed the VND to recover quickly. Looking back, the pressure on the exchange rate has decreased significantly in August thanks to the weakening of the USD.
Compared to early August, the interbank USD/VND exchange rate has now dropped 1.4% to over 24,800 VND/USD, marking a 2% increase compared to the beginning of the year. The exchange rate on the free market has also dropped sharply to below 25,000 VND.
According to experts from Rong Viet Securities, the pressure on USD demand to increase again in the late third quarter and early fourth quarter will not put pressure on the exchange rate outlook.
The USD/VND exchange rate at the end of 2024 may fluctuate around 25,000 VND/USD, an increase of about 3% compared to the end of last year.
It is not impossible that the State Bank will increase the buying rate to add more foreign currency to foreign exchange reserves.
According to Ms. Hoang Viet Phuong - Director of SSI Securities Investment Analysis and Consulting Center, for the first time since April 2024, the State Bank has adjusted the selling rate at the exchange down to 25,385 VND (from the previous 25,450 VND).
Although the buying rate at the transaction is still much lower than the interbank rate, in the context of the cooling USD, SSI experts do not rule out the possibility that the State Bank will increase this buying rate (like the end of 2022) to be able to add more foreign currency to foreign exchange reserves.
Source: https://tuoitre.vn/gia-usd-trong-nuoc-bat-ngo-bat-tang-truoc-cuoc-hop-cua-fed-20240918211257296.htm
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