Bank stocks continue to lead the market in 2024

The "golden ring" of credit growth is removed

Sharing at the Talkshow "HoSE welcomes new recruits, what opportunities for investors?" on the morning of March 11, Mr. Phan Nguyen Huu Phuong - Director of Ho Chi Minh City Branch, DNSE Securities Company commented that bank stocks will continue to play a leading role in the market during the price increase in the first half of 2024.

Many stocks have surpassed all-time highs such as: BIDV, VCB, ACB, MB... Large banks, good asset quality, the valuation of the banking industry in general is in the most attractive range.

Mr. Vo Hoang Hai - Deputy General Director of Nam A Commercial Joint Stock Bank (Nam A Bank) also commented that in the last months of 2023 and early 2024, there is a positive shift in the stock market, especially the banking industry regaining its role as "king" stocks, leading the market with a capitalization contribution of about 40% and profits contributing over 60-70% of the total profit of the whole market.

Mr. Vo Hoang Hai - Deputy General Director of Nam A Commercial Joint Stock Bank.

"The reason is that the "golden ring" on credit growth has been removed when, from the beginning of 2024, banks have been granted appropriate credit room, eliminating the administrative mechanism of requesting credit granting quarterly or periodically," said Mr. Hai.

Mr. Hai also commented that in 2024, everything is predicted to be favorable when the tight monetary policy in countries stops, inflationary pressure is gone, interest rates tend to decrease, contributing to stabilizing the exchange rate. Accordingly, the market expects to welcome continued loosening of monetary policy in the third and fourth quarters of 2024. Thanks to that, money flows will begin to flow into the banking industry.

Making predictions about bank stocks in the coming time, Mr. Tran Thang Long - Director of Analysis of BIDV Bank Securities Company - BSC said that 2024 is a relatively positive year with favorable market performance, business health recovery, and investors' cash flow will be more favorable due to interest rates remaining at low levels.

According to BSC's calculations, the INDEX in an optimistic scenario could increase by 1,420 points. The average market profit would increase by about 20%, and the valuation would increase by about 15%.

Banking stocks are likely to continue to lead the Vietnamese stock market in 2024. In the third and fourth quarters of 2024, bank profits are expected to increase rapidly, with room for price increases for banking stocks despite previously increasing by 20-30% in 2023.

Mr. Tran Thang Long - Director of Analysis of BIDV Bank Securities Company - BSC shared at the Talkshow.

Waiting for the "ripe" opportunity to change floors

Sharing at the Talkshow, Mr. Tran Thang Long also emphasized that the move to list shares on HoSE is very important. It is not just simply listing shares but also needs to meet more strict requirements of managers regarding charter capital, information reporting, listing time, etc.

These factors help listed businesses and banks increase transparency and recognition with investors, who are also potential customers of businesses and banks.

On Mr. Phuong's side, the expert pointed out some regulations set forth when transferring floors that businesses and banks need to meet such as making profits for 2 consecutive years, meeting some criteria on ROE, having more than 300 shareholders...

"Almost all businesses that change floors in 2024 are able to meet the above conditions. However, perhaps businesses are waiting for the market to mature, just out of the sharp decline from the second half of 2022 and 2023, to welcome a new wave of investment rather than listing regulations.

These units are waiting for the "east wind", waiting for the right time to change floors. When the market enters a new uptrend, they achieve the goal of increasing liquidity, brand recognition, and increasing the ability to mobilize capital in the stock market," Mr. Phuong commented.

Talking about the opportunities and challenges in the process of transferring floors for businesses and banks, according to Mr. Phuong, it is necessary to look directly at the reality that in the first two months of 2024, credit growth is negative, capital flows are not going to the market, and businesses are still in the defensive phase. At the same time, investors should also carefully monitor the exchange rate issue.

Mr. Long added that the economy has gone through a period of many fluctuations not only domestically but also internationally. Accordingly, the past two years have experienced many political fluctuations, wars, armed conflicts or increases in raw material prices. 2024 will continue to be a year of great external challenges with many potential geopolitical conflicts that are likely to continue.

However, the floor transfer also brings great opportunities for businesses and banks. Mr. Hai commented that, in reality, the floor transfer process of Nam A Bank shows that the floor transfer will help banks and businesses more easily approach foreign investors.

The transfer of floors will bring more opportunities, entering a larger, more transparent playing field as well as a larger capital market, moving towards the international market .

Source: https://www.nguoiduatin.vn/co-phieu-ngan-hang-tiep-tuc-dan-song-thi-truong-trong-nam-2024-a653519.html