Being "tortured" by the US, UAE quickly limits the situation of "smuggling" goods to Russia?

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has come under scrutiny from the United States and the European Union (EU) over its ties to Russia, which have undermined Western efforts to pressure Moscow economically in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Earlier in September, representatives from the UK, EU and US visited the UAE to express concerns about the Gulf state’s ties to Russia, saying they wanted to block Russian access to certain products such as computer chips and electronic components that could be used to bolster Russia’s war effort.

Now, under increasing pressure from the West and the growing threat of the Israel-Hamas war spilling over into other parts of the Middle East, Abu Dhabi is likely making some policy adjustments.

Under pressure of sanctions

The European Commission (EC) – the EU’s executive arm – updated its member states this week on the latest development that the UAE has agreed to restrict the re-export to Russia of “sensitive” goods that could be used in the Ukraine conflict, Bloomberg reported on November 10.

A UAE official told Bloomberg in an emailed statement that it is taking measures to restrict exports and re-exports of certain products to conflict zones and has an export control legal framework to continuously monitor exports of dual-use products (those that serve both military and civilian purposes).

In addition, the UAE maintains close dialogue with international partners on the conflict in Ukraine and its impact on the global economy, the official added.

This marks a victory for Ukraine's allies, which have been trying to cut off the flow of military goods to Russia, Bloomberg reported.

World - Being — The White House imposed sanctions on UAE-based entities for allegedly violating US export controls and for providing support to Russia in the war in Ukraine. Photo: The Cradle

In recent months, the US and EU have stepped up efforts to enforce trade restrictions, focusing in particular on clamping down on Russia’s ability to circumvent sanctions to obtain high-priority goods including dozens of types of technology and components used in weapons found in Ukraine or needed to produce them.

Earlier this year, the US warned the UAE, Oman and Türkiye against trying to evade sanctions and export controls imposed on Moscow last year. Then, in April, Washington imposed sanctions on two UAE-based entities, drone maker Aeromotus and electrical equipment specialist Hulm Al Sahra.

Aeromotus is alleged to have shipped UAVs and robotics technology to Russian importers after Moscow launched its military campaign in Ukraine last February, according to the US Treasury Department. Meanwhile, Hulm Al Sahra was sanctioned for allegedly shipping approximately $190,000 worth of US-origin semiconductors subject to US export controls, as well as machinery, electronic and optical equipment to Russian companies in the second half of 2022.

And the latest round of sanctions announced by the US earlier this month were imposed on a series of UAE companies accused of shipping aviation equipment and data-receiving machinery to Russia, alongside hundreds of companies and individuals from Türkiye and China.

This time, UAE-based financial firm ARX Financial Engineering was sanctioned for allegedly attempting to get Russian rubles sent from sanctioned VTB Bank (Russia) and converted into USD.

Consider based on benefits

Shortly after a September visit to the UAE by Western officials, Bloomberg reported that Abu Dhabi was considering requiring export licenses for certain technologies, including semiconductors.

Such a move, if it is made, would not only be due to growing pressure from the West but also because of the growing threat of the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip escalating to other parts of the Middle East. In such a scenario, the UAE would want to strengthen its ties with its “security umbrella,” the United States, experts say.

“If the UAE requests an export license, it would be a sign that they feel the costs of not complying with Western restrictions have exceeded the benefits of some trade with Russia,” Mark Katz, a professor at George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government in Virginia, said in an interview with Al Jazeera.

“It is also a sign that the UAE does not want to damage its relationship with the US, especially when faced with the risk of a broader conflict in the Middle East involving Iran. And then the UAE wants the US to protect it from Tehran.”

Additionally, with the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) set to begin later this month, host country UAE will want the surrounding area to be as quiet as possible.

The question is, when the UAE imposes export controls, it is unclear how this will create problems for UAE-Russia relations.

“Moscow may understand that the UAE will make this move under pressure from the West. Moreover, this move may only reduce, not eliminate, cooperation between the UAE and Russia. Moscow wants to maintain any possible cooperation with the UAE,” Professor Katz said.

Perhaps such export licenses could help advance Abu Dhabi's interests – both in terms of its reputation as a Middle Eastern trading hub, and national security concerns related to the Russia-Iran alliance.

“The export license will help reinforce the idea that the UAE is a trustworthy place to do business,” Gordon Gray, former US ambassador to Tunisia, told Al Jazeera. “The UAE has strong political and economic incentives to maintain good relations with the US and the EU. It is also undoubtedly suspicious of the growing military alliance between Russia and Iran, and wants to protect its national security by preventing dual-use goods from falling into Iranian hands.”

There is always a solution

Officials in the UAE are concerned about Moscow’s deepening partnership with Tehran—in part because of the non-state actors Tehran funds and in part because of its UAV and ballistic missile production activities—and are also concerned about the potential for these to exacerbate security crises in the Middle East.

However, taking cues from the West when it comes to relations with Russia will not be without certain risks for the UAE. Russia is reportedly receiving UAVs and other weapons systems from Iran for its military campaign in Ukraine.

From Abu Dhabi’s perspective, given Russia’s dependence on Iran and the “shallower” cooperation between the UAE and Russia, Moscow is likely to lean more towards Tehran if a contentious issue arises in UAE-Iran relations. This could spell trouble for the UAE.

In fact, Moscow may not see this as a possibility to prevent Abu Dhabi from complying with Western sanctions against Russia, according to Mr. Gray. The question is whether the UAE really wants to “appease” the US and its allies by restricting exports to Russia.

“The UAE and other Gulf states are not too keen on damaging their relations with Russia,” Imad Harb, Director of Research and Analysis at the Arab Center in Washington DC, told Al Jazeera.

“If the UAE does impose these controls, it would be for geopolitical reasons, in particular to show that it is complying with the wishes of the US and the EU. But even if Abu Dhabi does impose export controls, there are always ways around them because what companies and individuals care about most is their business and commercial interests.”

According to Mr. Harb, the issuance of these export licenses is unlikely to have too much of a negative impact on Russia-UAE relations. “The UAE can always arrange to sell goods to Russia through Iran because Tehran has good relations with Moscow and is always willing to help Moscow circumvent any sanctions,” he said .

Minh Duc (According to Al Jazeera, Bloomberg, AP)

Source