Pepper exports in 2025 are expected to have many advantages.

Pepper exports to the US record increase

According to the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association, in 2024, Vietnam exported 250,600 tons of pepper of all kinds, of which black pepper reached 220,269 tons and white pepper reached 30,331 tons. Total export turnover reached nearly 1.32 billion USD, of which black pepper reached nearly 1.18 billion USD and white pepper reached 200.6 million USD. Compared to 2023, the export volume decreased by 5.1%, but the export turnover increased by 45.4%. The average export price of black pepper in 2024 reached 5,154 USD/ton, up 49.7% and white pepper reached 6,884 USD/ton, up 38.9% compared to last year.

Pepper exports to the US increased to a record high in volume. Illustrative photo.

Olam Vietnam is the largest pepper exporter in 2024, reaching 27,800 tons, accounting for 11.1% and compared to 2023, exports increased by 36.9%. Next are the enterprises: Phuc Sinh reached 22,293 tons, accounting for 8.9%, up 41.1%; Nedspice Vietnam reached 20,420 tons, accounting for 8.1%, up 6.4%; Haprosimex JSC reached 17,899 tons, accounting for 7.1%, up 63.8%; Tran Chau reached 16,210 tons, accounting for 6.5%, down 2.0% compared to 2023.

In addition, there are also a number of other enterprises with a sudden increase in export volume such as Simexco Dak Lak reaching 13,352 tons, up 150.3%; Lien Thanh reaching 12,224 tons, up 32.4%; Intimex Group reaching 5,171 tons, up 42.8%; Sinh Loc Phat reaching 4,119 tons, up 50.7%; Hanfimex reaching 3,426 tons, up 68.2%.

The United States is Vietnam's largest pepper export market in 2024, reaching 72,311 tons, accounting for 28.9% and increasing by 33.2% compared to 2023, which is also the highest record export volume ever, up 21% compared to the previous record year of 2021 reaching 59,778 tons.

Next are the markets: UAE reached 16,391 tons, up 35.1%, accounting for 6.5%; Germany reached 14,580 tons, up 58.2%, accounting for 5.8%; Netherlands reached 10,745 tons, up 35.2%, accounting for 4.3%; India reached 10,617 tons, down 17.1%, accounting for 4.2%.

China's imports ranked 6th at 10,549 tons, down 82.4% and accounting for 4.2% market share.

Pepper export quantity and value from 2022-2024 (Unit: Ton, million USD)

On the contrary, in 2024, Vietnam imported 36,727 tons of pepper of all kinds, of which black pepper reached 31,755 tons, white pepper reached 4,972 tons, total import turnover reached 176.2 million USD, compared to 2023, import volume increased by 38.4%, turnover increased by 99.5%.

Indonesia, Brazil and Cambodia are the three largest pepper suppliers to Vietnam, reaching 17,194 tons, 9,558 tons and 6,798 tons, of which imports from Indonesia and Cambodia increased by 431.2% and 80.7%, while imports from Brazil decreased by 42.4%.

Olam Vietnam is the largest importer with 12,462 tons, up 36.5% and accounting for 33.9% of the market share, followed by Tran Chau with 4,167 tons, Harris Spice with 2,379 tons, Phuc Sinh with 1,999 tons and Phuc Thinh with 1,920 tons.

Domestic prices in the last 3 months of 2024 did not fluctuate much and remained at an average of 140,000 - 150,000 VND/kg. Compared to the beginning of the year, domestic prices of black pepper increased by 75.6% and white pepper increased by 68.8%, similarly, export prices also increased by 30.7% for black pepper and 28.6% for white pepper.

Pepper output is forecast to continue to decline.

The impact of climate change in 2024 will partly affect pepper production of farmers. However, some areas of the provinces recorded favorable weather conditions.

Pepper export quantity and value from 2022-2024 (Unit: Ton, million USD)

In Dak Nong, the capital of Vietnam’s pepper, output was recorded at the same level as last year. Production in some areas in the remaining key provinces such as Gia Lai, Binh Phuoc, Dong Nai and Ba Ria – Vung Tau also showed positive trends as pepper prices increased, so farmers boldly invested in caring for and restoring existing pepper gardens.

Meanwhile, in Dak Lak province, the province with the second largest pepper area and output, it is estimated to decrease as people switch to growing durian trees and there are not many new plantings. It is expected that farmers will not start harvesting pepper until after Tet and this will last until the end of April 2025.

Global pepper production in 2025 is forecast to continue to decline compared to 2024, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline since 2022. This reflects the fact that pepper is no longer the main crop for many farmers, especially in the context of the significant increase in economic value of other crops such as durian, coffee and oil palm. In addition, climate change with extreme weather events has reduced productivity and increased the cost of maintaining pepper production.

Commenting on the export market, Ms. Hoang Thi Lien - President of the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association - said that in 2024, China will reduce pepper imports from Vietnam by 82.4% but increase imports from Indonesia by 76.8%. However, this increase in imports is still not enough to meet total consumption demand in China.

Pepper inventories in this market are low, while expectations of a price drop have not materialized as prices have remained stable at VND140,000/kg for the past three months. It is predicted that China will probably wait until Vietnam's main harvest (after Tet) to start buying again.

Global pepper prices in 2025 are expected to remain high due to reduced supply, while demand in major markets such as the United States and Europe remains stable. Pepper use in the food and spice processing industries remains the main driver of the market.

On the business side, Mr. Ho Tri Nhuan - Director of Gohan Company Limited - said that with the assessments of supply and market demand, pepper export in 2025 will have many advantages but also many unpredictable factors.

Specifically, stable market demand and reduced output in some places will help pepper prices continue to remain high. However, depending on the purchasing pace of important markets such as the United States and China, the price increase may increase sharply or only be about 10-15% compared to present.

According to Mr. Ho Nhuan Tri, it is forecasted that China will increase purchases as soon as Vietnam enters its main harvest season in March - April 2025, while the US may buy more slowly due to large inventories from 2024. Vietnamese pepper will also be under competitive pressure from other pepper producers. Enterprises need to closely monitor market developments and purchasing movements from partners to have appropriate purchasing, storage, and cash flow plans, both increasing output and export turnover and ensuring business efficiency.

Vietnam and Brazil will maintain their positions as the world's two largest pepper exporters in 2024. However, Indonesia has emerged as a significant supplier, especially when Vietnam and Brazil suffered crop failures last year.

In 2025, Brazil’s output is expected to recover, while Indonesia’s output could decline due to investment constraints and unfavorable weather conditions. India, a major consumer, is also expected to see a decline in output due to the impact of floods, which have led farmers to limit investment and liquidate inventories as domestic prices fall.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/xuat-khau-ho-tieu-nam-2025-du-bao-co-nhieu-thuan-loi-370001.html