2025 is expected to be an important turning point, opening a period of recovery and development of the real estate market after a period of stagnation.
According to market research companies, this will be the period when the market begins to break out, thanks to public investment policies, infrastructure development and promotion of social housing.
Experts from Dat Xanh Services Economic - Financial - Real Estate Research Institute (Dat Xanh Services - FERI) commented that the real estate market has gone through many stages of fluctuations, from crisis to recovery. In particular, 2024 - 2025 is the accumulation and preparation stage, with clearer signs of recovery from 2026 thanks to a stable economy, a complete legal framework and restored market confidence. The fact that real estate-related laws take effect from August 2024 will continue to create a foundation for transparent and stable development, promote project progress and increase housing supply.
Mr. Le Hoang Chau, Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association, proposed that the Government soon issue decrees guiding implementation to overcome legal shortcomings and remove difficulties for real estate projects. In particular, there should be specific mechanisms and policies to handle projects with legal problems in Ho Chi Minh City, Da Nang and Khanh Hoa, helping to clear the supply.
According to CBRE Vietnam, removing legal obstacles will contribute to boosting housing supply. In the 2025-2026 period, apartment supply in Ho Chi Minh City is expected to improve significantly, with about 8,000 - 9,000 apartments in 2025 and 11,000 apartments in 2026.
Mr. Vo Hong Thang, Deputy General Director of DKRA Group, expressed his belief that 2025 will mark a recovery of the market, with a sharp increase in supply thanks to legal policies and infrastructure development. The expected supply of apartments will range from 13,000 to 15,000 units, concentrated in Ho Chi Minh City and Binh Duong province. The supply of land plots will also increase, reaching about 3,000 to 3,500 plots, mainly in Binh Duong, Dong Nai and Long An provinces - areas that benefit from key infrastructure projects such as Ring Road 3, Ring Road 4 and Long Thanh airport. Meanwhile, Tay Ninh, Ba Ria - Vung Tau and Ho Chi Minh City are still in a state of scarce supply.
Mr. Vo Hong Thang emphasized that legal solutions are the most important factor for the sustainable development of the real estate market in 2025. Solving issues related to land use fees for backlogged projects is urgent, in order to create conditions for businesses, people and the state to benefit, while helping the market to be vibrant and healthy. In addition, it is necessary to speed up the implementation of old projects, simplify administrative procedures, combined with the rapid implementation of real estate-related laws to shorten the licensing process. When the legal system is more open, the market will soon stabilize and develop healthily.
Capital flows continue to be a key factor in the market. However, according to experts, when projects have clear legal status, capital flows will automatically flow in through mortgage and merger and acquisition (M&A) channels. Banks are willing to provide capital with preferential interest rates for legally compliant projects, while foreign investment funds are still very interested in the Vietnamese real estate market, especially in Ho Chi Minh City.
According to Dat Xanh Services - FERI, the most optimistic scenario is that new supply could increase by 30% - 40% in 2025, floating interest rates fluctuate between 10% - 12%, selling prices increase by 10% - 15% and absorption rates reach 35% - 40%. This is a positive signal for the sustainable development of the real estate market in the coming period.
Source: https://nld.com.vn/tin-hieu-tich-cuc-tu-nguon-cung-bat-dong-san-19625021721233551.htm
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