The UAE's The National News website on June 13 quoted defense analysts as saying that Russia's "well-coordinated" defense forces had destroyed up to two Ukrainian armored battalions in the opening week of Kiev's counterattack.
Using a combination of advanced attack helicopters, killer drones, thermobaric weapons, minefields and electronic warfare, Moscow's military performed better than expected.
There is evidence so far that shows how the Russians coordinated their operations, a military intelligence analyst told The National News.
“Their defense seems to be very well coordinated, in that they can isolate and push Ukrainian formations into dead corners,” the analyst said. “What happens next could be quite violent and bloody.”
The Ukrainians faced a formidable defense that included vast minefields, precision missile strikes, and coordinated artillery fire support.
Ukrainian tanks fire in Chasiv Yar, Donetsk region, June 7, 2023. Photo: Daily Sabah
The Ukrainians were also forced to drive through open fields, where they risked becoming easy targets, said defense analyst Tim Ripley.
“If they go through areas like that without protection, they will definitely suffer,” said Mr. Ripley, a former analyst at global open-source intelligence firm Janes. “The Russians are not panicking, they are just taking their time, beating the enemy with a well-organized defense.”
The Russians are believed to be using a retreat tactic to “lure” Ukrainian forces beyond the range of their air defenses and electronic warfare before attacking. It is understood that the Ukrainian military will seek to attack after dark, as it has more thermal imaging and night vision equipment than the Russians.
After a week of fighting in the southern Zaporizhzhia region, Ukrainian troops have advanced 10 km into Russian-controlled territory but have yet to reach the main defense line, which is 20 km away. Heavy rains in the coming days will be another obstacle for Ukrainian tanks and Russian aviation.
War of Attrition
While it is too early to assess Ukraine's counteroffensive after a week of fighting, analysts believe the conflict is becoming a war of attrition for both sides.
Mr Ripley said the attrition was “not surprising” because it was no secret that the Ukrainians were going to attack and the Russians had months to prepare.
“They (Ukrainians) have no element of surprise, they are advancing straight into enemy positions with no air cover and limited terrain to hide in,” he said. “The question is how much damage they are willing to do for a single objective. So it is turning into a war of attrition.”
The defensive line stretches nearly 1,000 kilometers across some 100,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory controlled by Moscow, with thousands of positions, deployed from Russia’s western edge all the way to the Crimean peninsula on the Black Sea, including minefields, anti-tank ditches, concrete “dragon’s teeth” defenses and trenches.
The positions, which Reuters reviewed using satellite images taken in April, are concentrated mainly on the strategically important southern frontline, where Ukrainian forces could attempt to breach the “land bridge” linking Russian territory to Crimea and dividing Moscow’s forces.
The most heavily fortified Russian front line is south of Zaporizhzhia, where Ukraine is expected to attempt to breach and sever the “land bridge” connecting Russian territory to the Crimean peninsula. Sources: open-source intelligence analyst Brady Africk, Financial Times research, American Enterprise Institute (AEI) Critical Threats Project, Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Graphics: Financial Times (updated 5/19/2023)
Rob Lee, a leading Western military blogger and former US Marine, assessed that Moscow's strategy on the southern front may be aimed at maximizing Ukrainian casualties before Kiev's troops can reach Russia's main defense line.
Mr Lee, who is also a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) and one of several analysts tracking losses on both sides based on satellite imagery and photos, warned that the toughest phase of the war is still ahead.
“This was always going to be difficult and take time. Ukraine appears to be making significant progress, but the toughest battles in this offensive may not begin for another week or so,” Lee tweeted on June 12.
Ka-52, Lancet and TOS-1
Open source intelligence has shown losses of modern Leopard 2 tanks and Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, reported on social media such as Telegram – a messaging app popular with Russian military bloggers.
Particularly effective were the Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopter, the Lancet attack drone, the TOS-1 heavy thermobaric gun and electronic warfare, which had revealed many shortcomings in the earlier stages of the conflict.
Some commentators compare the Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopter, nicknamed the Crocodile, to the American AH-64 Apache. Although the Russian weapon had technical problems and 23 were shot down in the first eight months of the conflict, it is now being used effectively in defense.
A Leopard 2 tank and a Bradley armored personnel carrier are seen destroyed in the Zaporizhzhia region during the first week of a Ukrainian counter-offensive to retake territory from Russia, June 2023. Photo: EPA/The National News
The twin-rotor helicopter reportedly successfully hovered above the tree line to target modern Ukrainian armor. It carried 12 Vortex anti-tank missiles with a range of 8 km and was equipped with a nearly jam-proof laser guidance system.
“The Crocodiles are doing what attack helicopters are supposed to do, which is to locate formations that have penetrated the defenses to attack and take out the enemy very quickly,” said the intelligence analyst.
To counter the threat, the Ukrainians could deploy air defense systems, but this would make them more vulnerable. It cannot be ruled out that Ukraine could use the US HIMARS “goddess” or the British Storm Shadow cruise missiles from helicopters to support the counterattack.
There were also reports on June 12 that Ukraine shot down a Ka-52 on the southern front line, The National News said.
While the Ka-52 has proven its worth in defense, Russian mobile anti-tank teams have used the Lancet attack drone as a long-range sniper weapon.
Capable of diving at 300 km/h carrying a 1 kg warhead, this weapon, unlike Iran's kamikaze killer drones, has destroyed more than 100 Ukrainian tanks or artillery pieces since last year.
The Lancet, which has a range of 40km and can be carried like a backpack, can also be used to take out other drones.
A still from a video posted on the pro-Russian Telegram channel obtf_kaskad in early June 2023 shows the moment a Russian Lancet attack drone struck several military vehicles in Ukraine. Photo: Business Insider
The Russian TOS-1 thermobaric gun – used in Afghanistan in the 1980s – can create a series of shock waves that are longer and larger than those of conventional solid explosives, and a vacuum that sucks out all the surrounding oxygen. It is often used to attack dense formations.
The Russian Defense Ministry has “highlighted the role of Russian thermobaric artillery systems in attacking Ukrainian positions on the western front of Zaporizhzhia,” the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in an assessment of the fighting situation on June 11.
“Thermite artillery units have been firing at Ukrainian forces repeatedly over the past few days, and Russia has described the units as necessary to repel frontal Ukrainian attacks,” the Washington-based think tank said.
The Ukrainians managed to retaliate, destroying two of the tracked missile systems, most likely using US-made 155mm Paladin guns.
Electronic warfare and minefields
Recent Ukrainian armored attacks have reportedly been disrupted by Russia's extensive electronic warfare systems, an intelligence analyst told The National News.
“The reason a recent attack failed is believed to be because their communications systems were so badly degraded that they couldn't communicate with each other and they couldn't make decisions about how to escape.”
Brigadier General Ben Barry, senior fellow for land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), said the Russians had deployed a very high level of electronic warfare, making it more difficult for the Ukrainians to command and control their drones.
Russia has successfully improved its electronic warfare during the war, ISW said. Some Ukrainian mechanized units were not trained to “fight without communications or with suppressed GPS,” the US think tank added.
A still from a video posted on the pro-Russian Telegram channel BOBRMORF in early June 2023 shows a Russian drone preparing to attack a military convoy in Ukraine. Photo: Business Insider
In addition, the Ukrainian vanguard also faced belts of anti-tank and anti-personnel depth charges along the defensive line, and the Russians were also using mobile minelayers to slow the enemy's advance.
“In this battle right now, the Russians are using long-range anti-tank mines and can create a minefield instantly,” Ripley said. “For example, if they see an enemy armored formation coming across a field, they can immediately drop a minefield in front of that formation.”
Ukrainians risked hitting mines as they advanced deep into enemy-controlled territory, and could then be exposed to explosives again if forced to retreat.
Russia's 58th Combined Arms Corps, one of Moscow's most effective fighting units, is in the Zaporizhzhia region, and the Kremlin has also transferred other forces from Kherson because positions there are no longer needed after the collapse of the Nova Kakhovka hydroelectric dam.
Question about motivation to attack
Ukraine has been preparing for a counteroffensive for at least six months after recapturing the key southwestern city of Kherson in November, a large swath of the northeastern Kharkiv region in September, and forcing Russian forces to withdraw from the area around Kiev in the north in early April.
The Ukrainian military has formed 12 armored brigades for the offensive, nine of which will be trained and equipped by the West, analysts told Reuters on June 15. A brigade typically consists of at least 3,500-4,000 troops. Ukraine said it had formed eight assault brigades of 40,000 soldiers selected by the Ukrainian Interior Ministry.
So far only three of the 12 brigades are fighting in the southeast, said Konrad Muzyka, a military analyst in Poland who closely follows the war.
The main attacks came near the Ukrainian-controlled town of Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region and Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk region, about 80 km to the east.
Those attacks may indicate that Ukrainian generals are eyeing Tokmak, a Russian-controlled town in the Zaporizhzia region about 25 kilometers from the front line. Another 50 kilometers away is the Russian-controlled city of Melitopol. Both cities are heavily fortified.
Ukrainian soldiers drive a BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicle past a destroyed car in the village of Neskuchne, June 13, 2023. The village in the Donetsk region was recaptured from Russia during Ukraine's summer offensive. Photo: RFE/RL
Near Velyka Novosilka, Ukraine has liberated a cluster of four villages, including the two that Reuters visited on June 13 and 14, as well as two other nearby villages, Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Anna Malyar said on June 12.
The Ukrainian army has advanced 6.5 kilometers and recaptured 90 square kilometers of territory, Ms. Malyar said, speaking on the ground along a 100-kilometer stretch of the southern frontline. On June 14, the Ukrainian official said that Ukraine had advanced 300-350 meters in various areas in the previous 24 hours.
“They did pretty well initially,” said analyst Muzyka. “My main concern after five or six days of this is that the momentum seems to have stalled. The momentum they built in the first few days is basically gone and we don’t know why.”
The counter-offensive has been complicated by Ukraine’s lack of air power. Kiev has been lobbying the West for months to provide F-16 fighter jets, but it will be several months at least before the first modern fighters are deployed to the front lines.
Kiev has imposed a news blackout to protect the security of the operation, making it difficult to provide independent battlefield assessments. Russian President Vladimir Putin has described Kiev's offensive so far as a failure with heavy losses.
Images shared by Russian military bloggers show destroyed or damaged Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and US-made Leopard 2 tanks, both top military aid items provided by the West for the counter-offensive.
Mr Muzyka estimates that Ukraine may have lost up to 15% of its Bradleys and a few percent of its Leopard tanks.
Meanwhile, Mr. Jack Watling - senior expert on land warfare at the RUSI consultancy, said it was too early to say whether the counterattack was successful or failed .
Minh Duc (According to The National News, Reuters)
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