Nearly two months after it began, Ukraine’s counteroffensive has stalled. Trying to push through Russian minefields without adequate air support or anti-aircraft weapons, the Ukrainian army has lost 26,000 men and more than 3,000 pieces of equipment, according to the latest figures from Moscow. In return, Ukraine has retaken only a handful of villages, while failing to penetrate Russia’s multilayered network of trenches and fortified positions.
General Andrey Mordvichev, commander of Russia's Central Military District, assessed that the Ukrainian army will only have enough forces to counterattack until the end of August.
“Their forces for the counteroffensive will be enough only until the end of August. Then there will be a short pause. They will not be able to achieve anything during the winter. And I think it will all end in the spring,” General Mordvichev said in an interview with Soloviov Live TV channel on July 23.
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in an interview with CNN on July 23, said that Ukraine had successfully recaptured 50% of the territory lost to Russia since the beginning of the conflict, but to regain more, Kiev faced "a very difficult fight".
“It’s still early days in the fightback. It’s very difficult,” Blinken said, adding: “It’s not going to be clear for a week or two. I think we’ll have to wait and see over the next couple of months.”
Ukrainian soldiers fire a D-20 howitzer towards Russian troops at a position near the frontline town of Bakhmut, Donetsk region, early July 2023. Photo: CNN
Late last month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky admitted that progress in counterattacking Russian forces was “slower than desired.”
Ukraine has retaken several villages in the south and areas around the ruined city of Bakhmut in the east, but has made no major breakthroughs against heavily defended Russian lines.
Risk of deadlock
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on July 23 that Ukraine’s counterattack “has failed” as he welcomed his close ally Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko for talks in St. Petersburg.
“There was no counterattack,” Russian news agencies quoted Mr. Lukashenko as saying on July 23, to which Mr. Putin responded: “There was a counterattack, but it failed.”
As the prospect of any large-scale Ukrainian breakthrough this year fades, it raises the troubling prospect for the United States and its allies of a longer war — one that will require a large amount of new sophisticated weapons and more training to give Kiev a chance of victory.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko at a museum in Kronstadt on Kotlin Island, outside St. Petersburg, July 23, 2023. Photo: Getty Images
As early as this year, when Ukraine was planning a major counteroffensive against Russian forces, Western military officials knew that the Ukrainians lacked the weapons and training needed to succeed, but allowed Kiev to launch its disastrous campaign, hoping that Ukrainian courage and resourcefulness would do the trick, the Wall Street Journal reported on July 22.
But in the end, dense minefields, extensive fortifications, and Russian air power combined to largely halt any significant Ukrainian advances. Instead, the Ukrainian campaign risks a stalemate with the potential for further loss of lives and equipment without a major shift in momentum.
Now, Ukraine is attacking Russian positions as the enemy forces have had months to build up extensive defenses including minefields, fences and bunkers. Western military doctrine holds that to attack an entrenched enemy, an attacking force must be at least three times the size of the enemy and use a combination of air and ground forces.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during his nightly video address to the nation, July 23, 2023. Photo: President.gov.ua
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian military lacks everything, including manpower, training and resources, when it comes to such rules.
“Ukraine really needs to be able to scale up and synchronize its military operations if it wants to successfully penetrate Russian defenses,” said Franz-Stefan Gady, an independent military analyst who recently toured Ukraine’s front lines.
Instead of concentrating forces in attacks that require multiple units firing multiple rocket and artillery rounds—supporting simultaneous ground assaults—Ukraine is attacking in a sequential manner, with artillery strikes followed by company-sized infantry attacks, Gady said. Such tactics serve as a warning to the Russians that they are attacking, he said.
Air superiority
The small-scale approach—easier for commanders to coordinate than pushing ground forces under artillery support—had its weaknesses, such as reduced mobility. Getting wounded soldiers safely away from the front and carrying fresh ammunition was more dangerous in company-level operations because the medical and logistics corps were less protected.
Conducting large-scale simultaneous attacks is difficult for any armed force – even Western ones that are more heavily armed and better equipped than Ukraine’s – because integrating large numbers of ground and air troops into a lightning-fast and fierce frontal assault is extremely difficult.
No Western military would attempt to penetrate established defenses without control of the skies.
“The United States would never attempt to defeat a prepared defense without air superiority, but they (the Ukrainians) do not have air superiority,” said John Nagl, a retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel who is now an associate professor of war studies at the U.S. Army War College. “Not to overstate it, but air superiority is critical to a ground engagement with reasonable losses and casualties,” Nagl said.
Map assessing the situation on the ground in the Russia-Ukraine conflict as of July 23, 2023. Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and Critical Threats Project of the American Enterprise Institute (AEI)
“The Russians are now able to make better use of their air assets,” said Douglas Barrie, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a London-based think tank. “Russia does not have air superiority over the whole of Ukraine, but from a defensive standpoint, they are in a much better position.”
Asked whether Ukraine would buy US-made F-16 fighter jets, Secretary of State Blinken said in an interview with CNN on July 23 that he believed that would happen. “And it’s important to make sure that when they do, they’re properly trained, they can maintain the aircraft, they can use them wisely.”
An 11-nation coalition will begin training Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 fighter jets in August in Denmark, and a training center will be set up in Romania, Reuters reported.
Ukraine has long requested Lockheed Martin-made F-16s, but White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said last month that no final decision had been made on whether Washington would send the aircraft. US officials estimate it would take at least 18 months to train and deliver the aircraft to Ukraine.
The US has provided more than $41 billion in military aid to Ukraine since Russia launched its military campaign in the Eastern European country last February .
Minh Duc (According to WSJ, TASS, Reuters)
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