Associate Professor, Dr. Tran Kim Chung, former Deputy Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM), commented that the socio-economic context in 2024 will have many differences from 2023, but in 2024, the real estate market will likely continue to wait if there are no breakthroughs.
Associate Professor Dr. Tran Kim Chung said that in 2024, although it is difficult to predict the world economy, it is unlikely that there will be any major fluctuations. 2024 is a preparation year, with no major elections or political-economic-social cycles. Regional conflicts have also occurred, which may vary in scale but are not sudden.
Besides, the domestic macroeconomic situation has not had many sudden changes, most likely following a gradual and extrapolated trend. However, all factors have prospects for recovery and better development than in 2023.
The socio-economic context in 2024 is different from 2023, but in 2024, the real estate market will likely continue to wait if there are no breakthroughs. (Photo: TNCK)
Associate Professor, Dr. Tran Kim Chung also said that the draft Land Law (amended), whether slow or fast, will be passed in 2024 and take effect together with the Housing Law and the Real Estate Business Law on January 1, 2025. If the amended Land Law fully reflects the spirit of Resolution 18-NQ/TW of the 13th Central Executive Committee and Resolution 06-NQ/TW of the Politburo on urban areas, the real estate market will have many opportunities when the market mechanism is promoted.
At the same time, the real estate market after two years of adjustment has accumulated new potential. At the same time, difficulties have been gradually resolved, especially bank interest rates have been lowered and bond debt has been gradually handled.
In addition, businesses in difficulty have emerged and there is no further fluctuation. Therefore, partners are also more secure in investment decisions.
“I think 2024 is considered a difficult year for the Vietnamese real estate industry, but it also has many new opportunities,” said Mr. Chung.
Accordingly, Mr. Chung proposed 3 scenarios for the real estate market in 2024. The first scenario is incremental extrapolation. If all factors do not have a breakthrough, the market will continue its slow upward trend. This scenario is likely to happen, considering all aspects: Market cycle, market factors, market contexts, market stakeholders, real estate market policies, etc.
The second scenario is a strong market rally, kicking off a new growth cycle. This is the desired scenario but needs some nudges.
There are three requirements to support this scenario, namely a surge in foreign investment as a result of the upgrading of Vietnam-US relations and the shift of capital from traditional countries to emerging markets; the Land Law is passed and sub-law documents are completed with a supportive and market-boosting trend; monetary and financial instruments are loosened (low bank interest rates, credit expansion; real estate bond backlogs are thoroughly handled, real estate businesses have access to a new capital cycle).
However, for all the requirements to converge, it is necessary to have the synchronous coordination of all relevant agencies. This is the scenario that everyone wants and waits for, but the possibility of it happening is not high.
Associate Professor, Dr. Tran Kim Chung, former Deputy Director, Central Institute for Economic Management. (Photo: CFL)
The third scenario is that the real estate market declines. This is an undesirable scenario but it can still happen. If there are difficult factors for the market such as an unstable world economy, difficult macroeconomics, slow foreign investment... the market will fall into a state of stagnation due to lack of resources and motivation for development.
The most significant risk in 2024 is from the impact of the world situation when it is in a difficult to predict period. Next is partner risk, in a period of market stagnation, fluctuations of businesses greatly affect related parties, so this is something that always needs to be taken into account.
There are also other risks from the market, macroeconomics, policies... Basically, the passage of the new Land Law will have a positive impact on the real estate market: the market is more transparent, more regular, more feasible and more sanctionable.
“2023 will pass with waiting. In 2024, the market will likely continue to wait if there is no sudden change. However, if favorable factors converge, the market will move at the end of the year. On the contrary, if instability appears, the market will continue to wait, even decline,” said Mr. Chung.
Source
![[Photo] Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh chairs Government Conference with localities on economic growth](https://vstatic.vietnam.vn/vietnam/resource/IMAGE/2025/2/21/f34583484f2643a2a2b72168a0d64baa)
Comment (0)