Russian goods to EU drop to record low but "headache" problem remains

While EU imports from Russia fell to a record low in the second quarter of 2024, there are signs that the sanctions imposed by Brussels on Moscow are being evaded through trade with third countries.

Data released by the EU's official statistics agency Eurostat on August 28 showed that imports into the bloc from its eastern neighbor fell by 16% between the first and second quarters of this year.

In June, the total value of imports fell to €2.47 billion – the lowest monthly level since Eurostat began collecting data in January 2002. This was followed by April and May, which saw the second and third lowest monthly import levels on record, at €2.66 billion and €2.89 billion, respectively.

Exports also recorded a similarly sharp decline, down 9.5% quarter-on-quarter to €2.43 billion in June, the lowest since January 2003 and the third lowest on record.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Photo: The Telegraph

EU imports from Russia fell sharply immediately after Moscow launched its special military operation in Ukraine in February 2022, but the decline slowed from the second quarter of 2023. Exports followed a similar trend, with the decline later being more stable than the initial decline.

Philipp Lausberg, an analyst at the European Policy Center (EPC), told Euractiv that one possible reason for this is that recent rounds of Brussels' 14 sanctions packages against Moscow have focused less on banning imports of specific items, such as oil and coal, and more on enforcement and preventing circumvention.

Another potential reason for this is the relative stability in commodity prices – especially energy prices – since the start of 2023, said Alexander Kolyandr, non-resident senior fellow at the Centre for European Policy Analysis (CEPS).

“Russia is selling liquefied natural gas (LNG). The supply is constant, but Europe also does not want to reduce its purchases of anything from Russia – and so the final outcome basically depends on the market price of the commodity,” Mr Kolyandr told Euractiv.

While Russian exports to the EU have declined, a “headache” continues: sanctions evasion through parallel trade mechanisms. This is why trade between European countries and countries in Asia, the Caucasus and the Middle East has increased sharply since February 2022.

Mr. Kolyandr noted that, from 2021 to 2023, EU exports to Uzbekistan almost doubled from (€2.30 billion to €4.35 billion), sales of goods to Armenia almost tripled (€757 million to €2.16 billion) and exports to Kyrgyzstan increased more than tenfold (€263 million to €2.73 billion).

“Russia may have evaded sanctions by trading with third countries,” the CEPS expert said, adding that non-Soviet countries such as China and Türkiye could also be key routes to avoid sanctions.

Meanwhile, Mr. Lausberg said that although the situation of evading sanctions causes headaches for the EU, the way to evade sanctions also causes damage to Russia as it has to buy products such as high-tech goods and electronics at higher prices than before.

Minh Duc (According to Euractiv)

Source: https://www.nguoiduatin.vn/hang-nga-vao-eu-giam-xuong-muc-thap-ky-luc-nhung-van-de-dau-dau-van-con-204240829202341737.htm