Rice prices are rising, which one is better at taking advantage of the opportunity, Vietnam or Thailand?

According to customs data, in 2023, Thailand will lead in output with 8.8 million tons of exported rice, followed by Vietnam with 8.2 million tons. The value of Thai rice will reach 5.2 billion USD and that of Vietnam will be 4.8 billion USD.

Compared to the same period in 2022, rice exports from both Thailand and Vietnam increased by 1.1 million tons, respectively; Thailand in 2022 was nearly 7.7 million tons and Vietnam 7.1 million tons. This figure shows that the shortage of supply from India leaves a large gap (about 4-5 million tons of rice) that the remaining sources cannot compensate for.

In terms of price, during the period from when India stopped exporting rice until mid-December 2023, the price of Vietnam's 5% broken rice was always higher than Thailand's. At times, the price of Vietnamese rice was up to 105 USD higher than Thai rice. Specifically, in the first week of November 2023, the price of Vietnam's 5% broken rice was 663, while Thailand's was only 558 USD/ton.

In the last month of 2023, Vietnam's limited rice supply caused traditional customers such as the Philippines, Indonesia, and China to turn to Thailand, causing the price of rice from this country to increase significantly and end the year at the same level as Vietnamese rice at 660 USD/ton.

However, in 2024, Thailand only set a rice export target of 7.5 million tons, down 1.3 million tons compared to 2023. The reason is that dry weather affected the country's first crop of the year. On the other hand, Thais proactively reduced rice export output due to concerns that India would resume exports in the second half of 2024.

While the winter-spring rice crop in Vietnam's Mekong Delta is about to enter its peak harvest in February and March, many believe that at that time, rice prices will still be high due to high demand from importing countries, especially Indonesia.

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