Vietnam's coffee exports in the first 15 days of February reached 74,737 tons, up 1.2% compared to the first half of January and up 21.1% compared to the same period in 2024. However, the cumulative volume from the beginning of the year to February 15, the amount of coffee exported only reached 210,610 tons, down 29.7% compared to the same period last year, with revenue increasing 25.4% to 1.16 billion USD, according to the General Department of Customs.
Coffee price today 21/2/2025
World coffee prices fell sharply on both London and New York exchanges. Robusta futures fell by 115 USD/ton and Arabica fell by 22 cents/lb.
Domestic coffee prices today, February 21, are trading in the range of 130,700 - 132,000 VND/kg.
Industry insiders say the sharp drop in prices was expected. Traders say data suggests roasters are likely to have stockpiled enough coffee at this point, after buying heavily in recent weeks as they lost hope of a price drop, Reuters reports.
Meanwhile, the market is being manipulated by speculators, as inventory on the floor fluctuates sharply, causing prices to fluctuate during the session. After days of strong increases, bulls are taking profits or selling every time the market rises, to avoid investing too much in coffee. Even a falling USD cannot reverse the situation of coffee falling across the floor.
The recovery in arabica stocks has added to the pressure on long positions in the futures market. ICE-monitored arabica stocks have risen 2.7% over the past two sessions to 779,063 bags on Thursday, rebounding from a nine-month low of 758,514 bags on Tuesday.
However, Arabica prices are unlikely to fall sharply in the short term due to lower crop prospects for the 2025-2026 crop in Brazil, the world’s largest producer. As of February 11, Brazilian producers had sold 88% of their 2024-2025 crop, up from 79% a year earlier and the five-year average of 82%, according to a Safras & Mercado report. Meanwhile, pre-sales of 2025-2026 crop have been slow, reaching just 13%, well below the four-year average of 22%, reflecting a lack of new supply and farmers’ reluctance to sell.
Lower-than-average rainfall in Brazil has also raised concerns about supply and supported prices. Production is forecast to fall 8% to 59.75 million bags, according to a broker. Brazil’s Cooxupe coffee cooperative, the country’s largest coffee exporter, expects farmers’ coffee output to fall nearly 10% in 2025 due to hot, dry weather last year.
Robusta prices were also pressured by a rise in ICE-monitored robusta inventories. Robusta inventories hit a nearly five-month high of 4,603 lots on January 31, but then fell to a nearly two-month low of 4,297 lots on February 18. Robusta inventories later recovered slightly to 4,355 lots.
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| Domestic coffee prices on February 20 increased by 800 - 1,400 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: YouTube) |
According to World & Vietnam , at the end of the trading session on February 20, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange for delivery in March 2025 decreased by 115 USD, trading at 5,641 USD/ton. The delivery in May 2025 decreased by 91 USD, trading at 5,655 USD/ton. The average trading volume was low.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York floor, delivery term May 2025 decreased by 22 cents, trading at 389.90 cents/lb. Meanwhile, delivery term July 2025 decreased by 17.75 cents, trading at 379.55 cents/lb. Trading volume is high.
Domestic coffee prices on February 20 increased by 800 - 1,400 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg
(Source: giacaphe.com) |
World coffee prices have shown signs of recovery as supply from two major producing countries, Brazil and Vietnam, has limited sales.
The world continues to worry about limited coffee supplies due to unfavorable weather conditions in Brazil. In addition, during Vietnam's coffee harvest season, heavy rains affect the harvesting process and the quality and yield of beans.
According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO) report, in the first three months of the 2024-2025 crop year (October to December 2024), global coffee exports decreased by 0.8% compared to the previous crop year, down to 32.2 million bags.
The rise in coffee prices can lead to higher retail prices and lower demand. This sharp increase has affected demand in major markets and is starting to slow consumption growth in emerging economies.
According to the General Department of Customs, Vietnam's coffee exports in January reached 134,005 thousand tons, worth approximately 729 million USD, down sharply by 43.7% in volume but still up 0.3% in value compared to the same period in 2024. Compared to many years ago, this year's harvest in Vietnam was much later. The factors that affected it were unusual weather that caused the rainy season to end late, frequent unseasonal rains, especially storm No. 10 in the East Sea in late December 2024 that caused widespread rain in the Central Highlands; at the same time, coffee growers replanted some new varieties that ripened later.
Experts believe that coffee prices will continue to be supported in 2025 as supply has not improved. However, with the complicated geopolitical and economic situation, the upward momentum of coffee prices may face obstacles this year.
In 2024, it seemed that many businesses would benefit from the sudden increase in coffee prices, but the business results of listed companies were not as expected. Many businesses had declining profits, even losses due to high costs.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-2122025-gia-ca-phe-dong-loat-tut-doc-robusta-mat-hon-100-usd-lam-ro-ve-thong-tin-thieu-hut-nguon-cung-305061.html
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