| Agricultural, forestry and fishery exports in 2024 aim for 54 - 55 billion USD China is the top export market for Vietnam's agricultural, forestry and fishery products in 2023 |
1. Earning 13.4 billion USD, wood and wood products exports recorded no growth for the first time
According to estimates from the General Department of Customs, in 2023, the export turnover of wood and wood products is estimated to reach 13.4 billion USD, down 16.2% compared to 2022. Of which, the export turnover of wood products is estimated to reach 9.2 billion USD, down 22.9% compared to 2022. With this result, the wood industry has only achieved about 79% of the target of 17.5 billion USD set at the beginning of 2023.
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| Wood and wood products exports in 2023 will only earn 13.4 billion USD |
In the context of low global economic growth, weak global consumer demand, increasing protectionist barriers, and many countries continuing to maintain tight monetary policies, the export situation of wood and wood products in the last month of 2023 will face many difficulties. In addition, major economies that are Vietnam's export partners such as the United States and the EU have reduced spending on purchasing regular and non-essential products, making it difficult for exported wood and wood products to recover.
In 2024, the difficulties for the wood industry are forecast to last as unfavorable factors still exist such as widespread geopolitical crisis, global economic recession, and the main export markets have not recovered. Although inventories in the main consumption markets tend to decrease, the recovery momentum is still relatively slow, and global consumption has not yet seen a clear recovery.
At the same time, the wood industry still faces challenges such as competitive orders and increasingly high requirements for design and quality. Because foreign trade barriers are increasingly strict, certificates of sustainable forest management or carbon emission reduction certificates later require wood products to comply when exported to foreign markets.
In 2024, the forestry sector aims to achieve an export turnover of 17.5 billion USD. In the context of many challenges in the export market, Mr. Nguyen Quoc Tri - Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development said that these targets are quite high and suggested that the Forestry Department reconsider this target.
2. Earning 5.69 billion USD, fruits and vegetables have the strongest export growth rate among agricultural, forestry and fishery products.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, by the end of 2023, fruit and vegetable exports will reach 5.69 billion USD, an increase of 69% compared to 2022. This is the item with the strongest export growth rate among agricultural, forestry and fishery products.
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| 2023 is the year that witnessed the "change of throne" in the fruit and vegetable industry. Surpassing dragon fruit and durian, the fruit and vegetable industry has become the product with the highest export turnover. |
Notably, durian has made a very positive contribution to the growth of the fruit and vegetable industry with a proportion of more than 40%, with export turnover expected to reach more than 2.2 billion USD, 5 times higher than in 2022.
In 2024, with an optimistic perspective, Mr. Dang Phuc Nguyen - General Secretary of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association (Vinafruit) commented that Vietnam's fruit and vegetable industry is forecasted to continue to set new peaks, possibly surpassing 6 billion USD, even reaching 7 billion USD, thereby creating a driving force to become a fruit and vegetable export powerhouse.
Mr. Dang Phuc Nguyen hopes that after the visit of General Secretary and President of China Xi Jinping to Vietnam, Vietnam's fruit and vegetable exports to the market of 1.4 billion people will expand in terms of products, scale, and market share.
According to Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Phung Duc Tien, if Vietnam signs the Protocol on exporting frozen durian to China in the near future, the export value will certainly increase. Besides durian, Deputy Minister Phung Duc Tien said that coconut is also a product with great potential, especially in the Chinese market. Currently, the coconut growing area in Vietnam is about 194,000 hectares, with an output of 1.4 million tons.
3. Rice exports earned 4.78 billion USD, reaching a 34-year peak
2023 is considered a successful year for the Vietnamese rice industry when all the factors of favorable weather, favorable terrain and favorable people converge, thereby helping rice exports earn 4.78 billion USD, an increase of 38.4% over the same period last year with an output of about 8 million tons (according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development).
Notably, although the cultivated area in 2023 decreased by 9 thousand hectares, the yield increased by 1 quintal/ha, resulting in the rice output for the whole year of 2023 still reaching 43.5 million tons.
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| Rice exports: Reached a 34-year peak |
According to Mr. Nguyen Nhu Cuong - Director of the Department of Crop Production (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development), in 2024, the rice production plan for 2024 will be adjusted a bit, we will only plant 7.1 hectares of rice, the area will decrease slightly but Vietnam will strive to harvest rice output of over 43 million tons.
Export rice prices on the world market are forecast to remain high in 2024 - 2025, which are favorable for Vietnam's rice production.
If the situation is favorable, the production plan is ensured, the impacts of El Nino are minimized, and there are no large-scale epidemics or natural disasters, the leader of the Department of Crop Production predicts that rice export turnover in 2024 will reach 7.5 - 8 million tons.
4. Coffee exports earned 4.18 billion USD
The Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) cited statistics from the General Department of Customs, saying that it is estimated that Vietnam's coffee exports in 2023 will reach approximately 1.61 million tons, worth 4.18 billion USD, down 9.6% in volume, but up 3.1% in value compared to 2022. The average export price of coffee in 2023 will reach 2,834 USD/ton, up 14.1% compared to 2022.
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| Coffee exports earned 4.18 billion USD. Photo: Nguyen Hanh |
In 2023, Vietnam's coffee exports will benefit from a sharp increase in Robusta coffee prices. At the end of the year, Robusta coffee prices in the world reached a 28-year high due to concerns about low inventories and limited sales.
It is forecasted that in 2024, the Vietnamese coffee industry will continue to benefit as Robusta coffee prices will remain high, possibly even peaking due to concerns about supply shortages.
According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, in the 2023/2024 crop year, Vietnam's coffee output is expected to decrease to 1.6 - 1.7 million tons, lower than 1.78 million tons in the 2022/2023 crop year.
In 2024, the Vietnamese coffee industry will focus on many solutions for sustainable development, traceability, especially meeting the EU's EUDR deforestation regulations. This will be one of the factors helping the Vietnamese coffee industry boost exports to the EU market.
Many experts have also forecast that coffee exports in 2024 could reach from 4.5 to 5 billion USD.
5. Cashew nut exports earned 3.63 billion USD
After 2 adjustments to the plan to reduce the value, cashew nut exports still earned 3.63 billion USD (according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development), higher than the previous estimate (about 3.18 billion USD).
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| Cashew exports earn 3.63 billion USD |
Vietnam is the largest importer of raw cashews and the largest exporter of cashew kernels (accounting for about 70% of the world market). Vietnam is also the country that owns and produces almost all the equipment for processing cashew nuts, and has become an exporter of machinery and equipment that is sought after by other countries. Moreover, the quality of Vietnamese cashew nuts, according to consultants, importers, and roasters around the world, is considered to have a delicious, aromatic flavor, very unique compared to cashew nuts from other countries.
Cashew industry businesses believe that cashew exports in 2024 have good prospects because many world markets such as the EU, Japan, etc. still have demand for cashew products.
6. Shrimp exports in 2023 will only earn 3.38 billion USD
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development said that in 2023, Vietnam's shrimp exports will only earn 3.38 billion USD, down 21.7% over the same period last year.
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| Shrimp exports in 2023 will only earn 3.38 billion USD |
Explaining this decline, the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers shared that in the last month of 2023, there was a sharp decline from key markets such as the United States, EU, and China due to economic fluctuations and previous inventories in the markets, combined with competition from shrimp from other countries.
Mr. Duong Long Tri - Deputy General Secretary of the Vietnam Fisheries Association said that, up to now, the output of farmed shrimp is about 1.1 million tons, the export value is still only fluctuating from 3.5 - 4 billion USD, previously, our output was 700 thousand tons also achieved equivalent export value. Therefore, it is necessary to consider preliminary processing and processing solutions to increase product value to increase export turnover.
Vietnamese shrimp is now present in more than 150 countries. However, not only Vietnamese shrimp can conquer the world market, but many other countries are competing with Vietnamese shrimp by applying science and technology in shrimp production. Therefore, in order for Vietnamese shrimp to maintain this competitive position, experts agree that the Vietnamese shrimp industry must have its own direction.
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