Last week ended with the recovery of VN-Index but liquidity decreased, reaching only over 12,000 billion VND per session. Foreign investors still sold strongly, has the stock market found the bottom?
VN-Index quickly bounced back after losing the 1,200 mark for about 5 minutes on November 20 - Photo: QUANG DINH
Talking to Tuoi Tre Online , experts have given a basic scenario for the stock market in the new week.
The stock market is not so "scary"
• Mr. Vu Duy Khanh, Director of Analysis at Smart Invest Securities:
- The stock market may continue its sideways trend. Due to the low valuation base, it will not lead to a sell-off when stocks fall to the 1,200 zone, but we do not have enough stories to attract speculative cash flow back to push the VN-Index higher.
Overall, the possibility of a market breakout will be limited as foreign investors continue to net sell as they are now. Since the beginning of the year, foreign investors have net sold about 65% of trading sessions.
The accumulated net volume of foreign investors selling since the beginning of the year has reached over 2 billion shares, equivalent to more than 92,000 billion VND, a record high number in the Vietnamese stock market.
Mr. Vu Duy Khanh
However, I think 1,180 - 1,200 is still a strong support zone and bottom-finding demand will appear.
In the past two weeks, the number of small and medium-cap stocks increasing in price has also increased more and more, and stocks that create a bottom price base often increase well from 20-30%.
Especially the double bottom pattern group calculated on weekly charts and many stocks with good business prospects tend to exceed the peak.
So the market is not really that scary. The bottom will depend on each investor's risk appetite and strategy. In the long term, the 1,180 area has a good valuation.
I think it is very difficult to predict the current foreign trading trend. With high US government bond yields and a strong US dollar index, foreign investors are still under pressure to buy US stocks.
Baseline scenario for the stock market
• Mr. Doan Minh Tuan - Head of Research and Investment Department, FIDT:
- In conditions where market risks remain high, it will be very difficult for cash flow to explode to cause the VN-Index to increase rapidly in the short term.
In the current context, we believe that there is a high probability that VN-Index will continue to accumulate a narrow range of 1,220 - 1,250 points in the short term, until there is a big enough change from global risk conditions such as the rapid decline of the USD index and the rapid decline of domestic exchange rates, liquidity and interest rates.
The state of the market recovering technically, narrow margin accumulation will be suitable for accumulating stocks in the reasonable value zone, at times of deep market correction.
Mr. Doan Minh Tuan
When the market is uncertain, the strategy is to disburse in parts and diversify the investment portfolio (should not focus on stocks that are too marketable or speculative).
Uncertain market cash flow conditions favor stock accumulation, limiting short-term high trading exposure.
In the base case, we still believe that the recent deep market correction has reflected most of the "hypothetical risks" in the medium term.
At that time, any significant reversal of key global variables will create an opportunity to help VN-Index successfully bottom out, reversing the mid-term correction trend.
Stock market attention is focused on exchange rates, what do experts predict?
• Ms. Tran Thi Khanh Hien - Director of Analysis, MB Securities (MBS):
- After cooling down significantly in the past two months, the USD/VND exchange rate has rebounded under strong upward pressure from the USD since early October.
The depreciation of the dong is not only affected by external factors but also by the seasonal increase in domestic demand for foreign currency.
Mrs. Tran Thi Khanh Hien
Pressure on exchange rates will decrease in the coming time thanks to intervention measures of the State Bank.
This process will be modest, as the policies proposed by the new US president will help the USD maintain its upward momentum and put increased pressure on the exchange rate.
We forecast the exchange rate will return to 25,000 VND/USD by the end of this year, under positive factors such as: positive trade surplus, FDI inflows and strong recovery of tourism.
The stability of the macro environment is likely to be maintained and further improved, which will be the basis for exchange rate stability in 2024.
In addition, pressure on exchange rates is expected to gradually decrease in the coming time as the Fed has begun a rate cutting cycle and will likely continue to maintain the cuts, but at a slower pace.
Source: https://tuoitre.vn/chung-khoan-tuan-moi-chua-co-cau-chuyen-de-keo-dong-tien-1-200-lieu-da-la-day-20241124214346695.htm
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