Stocks continue to face shaky sessions

The stock market has just recorded its sharpest weekly decline since mid-April 2024, but the matched liquidity has not decreased much (15% lower than the 20-week average). In the context of a relatively stable macro situation, this reinforces the possibility that this is just a mild correction of the market.

Foreign investors' trading activities last week continued to be the focus, especially the nearly VND1,800 billion in VNDiamond ETF certificates that were traded. Securities companies' self-trading was the one that created liquidity for foreign investors to sell this ETF. Foreign investors' strong net selling partly caused the market to shake strongly, in the context of reduced liquidity.

Entering July, the market is waiting for very important data for businesses and investment organizations, which is the semi-annual report with audit review... showing a fairly clear business picture of listed businesses this year.

According to analysis by experts from HSC Securities Company, the correction situation is expanding and there are no signs of a slowdown in the decline, so the short-term equilibrium point has not yet appeared. It is forecasted that in the trading sessions of the first week of July, the fluctuations are likely to recur and the index may test a stronger support level around 1,230 - 1,245 points, the old peak of 2023.

Quantitative indicators continue to weaken with cash flow losing short-term momentum and withdrawing from many stock groups. Large-cap stocks are still the most heavily ousted and show no signs of improvement, especially in the context of this group being under strong net selling pressure from foreign investors. The correction of the securities group makes recovery efforts more difficult as the banking group has already fallen into a downward trend since the correction in April. On the contrary, the mid- and small-cap groups still attract the attention of short-term cash flow and create bright spots, even in sessions when the index fluctuates and corrects.

In the positive scenario, HSC experts believe that the uptrend will likely return to its starting point and source, with the most recent expectation being the large-cap group. This is consistent with the early correction of this group such as banking, real estate, and recently the securities group.

In addition, if the recovery is initiated on the support of the large-cap group, it will help the uptrend become stronger and more reliable compared to the current industry rotation around the small and medium-cap groups (causing the VN-Index to not have enough momentum to surpass the 1,300-point threshold).

Experts from Kafi Securities Company also believe that VN-Index will likely continue to move in a technical correction phase, after retreating from the resistance zone of 1,290 - 1,300 points. However, a tight accumulation phase at the support zone of 1,250 +/- 20 points is necessary to create a foundation for the index to absorb selling pressure and increase points again.

In the current accumulation phase, the strategy of holding stocks with positive profits to wait for a strong resistance is being prioritized. On the other hand, this is a reasonable stage to start restructuring the portfolio, waiting for the business results of the second quarter of 2024 to be gradually announced in the next 2 weeks, prioritizing disbursement into bluechip stocks with favorable business prospects and attracting cash flow such as retail, banking, securities, logistics, seaports.

Source: https://laodong.vn/kinh-doanh/chung-khoan-tiep-tuc-doi-mat-voi-nhung-phien-rung-lac-1359962.ldo