Although the US presidential election is still four months away and the variables on the race to the White House are unpredictable, the European Union (EU) is still patiently preparing for the possibility of meeting Mr. Trump again.
According to the Financial Times (UK), Brussels is building a two-step trade strategy to deal with Mr. Donald Trump, offering the Republican presidential candidate a quick deal if he wins the election, and targeted retaliation if he chooses to apply additional punitive tariffs.
Ms. Kamala Harris (left) and Mr. Donald Trump. Photo: CNBC
EU officials see a “carrot and stick” approach as the best response to Mr Trump’s announcement of a minimum 10% tariff, which they estimate could reduce EU exports by around €150bn a year.
If Mr Trump wins the November election, Brussels negotiators plan to approach his team before he takes office, to discuss which US products the EU could buy in greater quantities.
If talks on improving trade fail and Mr Trump imposes higher tariffs, the European Commission's trade arm will draw up a list of imports on which it could impose tariffs of 50% or more.
“We have to show that we are partners with the United States, not a problem,” a senior EU official said on July 29. “We will seek agreements, but we are ready to defend ourselves if necessary. We will not be led by fear.”
Mr Trump's tenure from 2017 to 2021 was a painful one for the EU, which has a significant trade surplus in goods with the US.
After Mr Trump imposed tariffs on €6.4bn worth of steel and aluminium imports from the EU and elsewhere in 2018 on national security grounds, the EU responded with countervailing tariffs worth €2.8bn.
In designing the measures, Brussels chose to target Mr. Trump’s core voters by imposing steep tariffs on bourbon whiskey, Harley-Davidson motorcycles and powerboats. Those tariffs are suspended until March, part of a temporary agreement with the Biden administration to suspend tariffs on metals.
EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said he hoped the two sides could avoid a repeat of the “confrontations” of the past.
“We believe that the US and the EU are strategic allies and especially in the current geopolitical context, it is important that we work together on trade,” said Mr. Dombrovskis.
However, the EU official added: "We have defended our interests with tariffs and we are ready to defend our interests again if necessary."
Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius recently predicted that a tariff war would be more damaging to the EU than the US. It would cost the EU 1% of GDP, compared to 0.5% for the US. However, it would also add 1.1% to US inflation, compared to 0.1% in the EU.
Brussels policymakers hope Mr Trump will not want to stoke inflation when voters are worried about the cost of living. But, a senior EU official said: “Whatever happens this time, we are better prepared.”
These days, on the other side of the Atlantic, the 2024 US presidential election is heating up. As Mr. Trump once again races for the White House, he faces unprecedented challenges.
After incumbent US President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the race, the issue of age returned to cause trouble for Mr. Trump himself. At 78 years old, Mr. Trump would be the oldest president ever to take office if re-elected.
In contrast, Kamala Harris, who is on track to become the Democratic presidential frontrunner, represents a new generation of leadership. At 59, Harris brings a fresh perspective and extensive experience as a former senator and current vice president.
But Harris is not without hurdles. She must first shore up Democratic support and address concerns about her experience and effectiveness.
The 2024 election will revolve around a number of important issues, with economic recovery and inflation being top priorities for many American voters, requiring candidates to offer credible solutions to restore economic stability.
Minh Duc (According to Financial Times, Times of India)
Source: https://www.nguoiduatin.vn/chien-luoc-2-buoc-cua-eu-cho-tinh-huong-tai-ngo-ong-trump-204240729182345378.htm
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