65 F-16 “Peregrine Falcons” are not enough to “make spring” for Ukraine

The US-made F-16 Fighting Falcon has long been at the top of the list of military hardware platforms that Ukraine wants to better counter Russia.

Although Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway have committed to providing up to 65 of these fourth-generation jets, the first of these “Peregrines” will not be delivered until at least late this summer.

“All Ukrainians are waiting for the day when the first F-16s will appear in our skies,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in February.

The question being asked in the aviation world is whether the number of Western fighters is too small to affect the course of the war?

Not a “game-changing weapon”...

The Netherlands, along with Denmark and Norway, have pledged to provide Ukraine with older F-16 Fighting Falcons as NATO nations modernize their fleets with the more modern F-35 Lightning II.

“In total, we will deliver 24 F-16 fighter jets. They will be delivered to Ukraine as soon as everything is ready. The timing depends on the training of Ukrainian pilots and technicians, as well as on the infrastructure,” Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren said in an interview with Ukrinform (Ukraine) in The Hague earlier this month.

But delays in getting the F-16s to Ukraine could limit their effectiveness. Earlier this month, a senior Ukrainian military officer told Politico that “the F-16s are needed in 2023, but they will be irrelevant in 2024.”

World - 65 F-16 — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (left) and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen (right) sit on an F-16 at Skrydstrup air base in Vojens, northern Denmark, August 20, 2023. Photo: Breaking Defense

The anti-tank missiles provided by the UK and the US in the early weeks of the war proved decisive for Kiev’s forces, the official said. Conversely, long delays in the delivery of some weapons – such as Western main battle tanks (MBTs) that only arrived on the front lines last year – have made them less important on the battlefield. The same is true for the F-16.

Additionally, experts suggested to Newsweek that the number of fighter jets Ukraine operates would likely be too small to make a strategic difference across the nearly 1,000-kilometer front, especially since Russia has had plenty of time to prepare since the US publicly announced its decision to allow the transfer of F-16s last August.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has also sought to play down expectations about what the Falcons could bring. He said that while the F-16s could expand the capabilities of the Ukrainian military, they would not be able to have a significant impact on the situation in the combat zone.

“A single weapon cannot change the situation on the battlefield,” Stoltenberg was quoted as saying by Ukrainska Pravda. “This is not a silver bullet that can change the course of the war. However, the F-16s are very important. They will further strengthen Ukraine’s ability to repel the Russian advance.”

Additionally, Ukraine will need more training, as well as ammunition, spare parts, and infrastructure when receiving Fighting Falcons from its allies. Building runways and facilities equipped to operate these fighters is also an immediate and expensive endeavor.

For those reasons, the F-16 should not be considered a “game-changer” in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

…But there are still certain effects

The F-16 is a fourth-generation jet fighter that has been in production since the 1970s and is used by more than 20 air forces around the world . In many respects, the “Peregrine Falcon” is the most successful and popular fighter aircraft in service today.

Although no longer in service with the US Air Force, it continues to be produced by aerospace and defense giant Lockheed Martin for sale overseas.

The F-16 Fighting Falcon is a capable aircraft but it will also be “a magnet for Russian air defenses and Russian aircraft,” warned Frank Ledwidge, a senior lecturer in Law and War Studies at the University of Portsmouth and a former British Army intelligence officer.

Since Moscow possesses an advanced arsenal that includes air defense systems and surface-to-air missiles, the F-16 fighters delivered to Ukraine will essentially become vulnerable to attack.

In his latest warning to NATO, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in late March that the F-16 fighter jets the West had promised to send to Ukraine would not change the situation on the battlefield.

“And we will destroy aircraft just as we destroy tanks, armored vehicles and other equipment today, including multiple launch missile systems,” Putin said, stressing that F-16s taking off in any third country would become “our legitimate target.”

As the F-16s continue to be deployed to Kiev, the Ukrainian military is also facing shortages of other essential weapons and military systems. The most prominent shortage at the moment is ammunition for Western artillery and weapons that have been delivered to Kiev for over two years.

Ukrainian officials say it is becoming increasingly difficult to hold off Moscow’s forces as Kiev’s supply of artillery shells dwindles. If the Fighting Falcon’s “game-changing” capabilities are no longer available, the Falcons may still be welcome in Ukraine as they can help increase ammunition deliveries.

The presence of the F-16 Fighting Falcon could help Kiev hold the line and could make the air war in Ukraine even more costly for the Kremlin, as Russian forces are believed to have lost a number of Su-34 and Su-35 fighters. The Fighting Falcon may not provide absolute protection over Ukrainian skies, but it will ensure that Russia can never feel it has air superiority .

Minh Duc (According to National Interest, Newsweek)

Source