The runoff election for Türkiye's president between Kemal Kilicdaroglu (left) and Recep Tayyip Erdogan will take place on May 28, 2023. Photo: Financial Times
Turks will go to the polls on May 28 in a runoff presidential election between incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu.
The election will determine whether Mr Erdogan can extend his 20-year rule with a third five-year term as president.
Far right voters
In the first round of voting on May 14, Mr. Erdogan received 49.5% of the vote, just short of the majority needed (more than 50%) to avoid a second round of voting that is seen as a referendum on how he leads this Eurasian transcontinental country.
Mr. Kilicdaroglu, the candidate of the coalition of six opposition parties, received 44.9% of the votes.
Coming in third was Mr. Sinan Ogan - candidate representing the Alliance of Extreme Nationalists (ATA) with 5.2% of the votes.
Despite being eliminated, this far-right candidate has the potential to become a kingmaker – the person who plays a decisive role in the victory or defeat of the two opponents in the upcoming runoff round.
The task for Mr Erdogan and Mr Kilicdaroglu now is how to attract the 2.8 million far-right voters who can make a difference.
Since then, Mr Kilicdaroglu has doubled down on calls for the nationalist candidate to choose sides, while also shifting his stance on immigration, especially on Turkey’s 3.7 million Syrian refugees, despite previously focusing on fighting corruption and protecting human rights.
“It is a contradiction,” Sinan Ciddi, a political scientist specializing in Türkiye and a researcher at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD) think tank, told Euronews.
“For months they have been talking about integration, about difference… And now, in the space of about 10 days, the candidate of the center-left Republican People's Party (CHP) has moved completely to the right.”
Mr. Sinan Ogan speaks at a press conference in the capital Ankara, May 22, 2023, declaring his support for Mr. Erdogan in the second round of elections. Photo: Daily Sabah
But Mr Kilicdaroglu’s efforts have been less successful. On May 22, Mr Ogan announced his support for Mr Erdogan, although it is unclear how many of the 5.2% of voters who voted for the far-right candidate in the first round will follow his lead in the upcoming runoff.
The disintegration of the ATA Alliance after its recent election defeat also makes it more difficult to predict how far-right voters will vote on May 28.
Domestic and foreign affairs
The vote will decide not only who leads Türkiye, a NATO member state of 85 million people whose economy has been deeply affected by a cost-of-living crisis, but also shape its foreign policy.
Critics of Mr Erdogan say his government has silenced dissent, eroded rights and taken control of the judiciary. Officials have denied the allegations.
The economy is a key aspect of the Turkish presidential race. Economists say Mr Erdogan’s unusually low interest rates despite rising prices have pushed inflation to 85% last year and caused the lira to lose a tenth of its value against the dollar over the past decade. Mr Kilicdaroglu has pledged to return to more orthodox economic policy and restore the independence of the Turkish Central Bank.
On the foreign front, under Erdogan, Türkiye has increased its military power in the Middle East and beyond, forged closer ties with Russia, and seen its relations with the European Union (EU) and the United States become increasingly strained. Ankara has so far blocked Sweden’s membership in the NATO military alliance.
Türkiye and the United Nations also brokered a deal between Moscow and Kiev on Ukrainian grain exports across the Black Sea, and Erdogan said last week that the deal had been extended by two months.
A ship loaded with grain in Chornomorsk, Ukraine, on July 29, 2022, is expected to sail to Türkiye under the Black Sea grain initiative brokered by Ankara and the United Nations. Photo released on the official Telegram channel of the Office of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy.
It is unclear whether, if Mr Erdogan loses, his successor will be able to achieve the same success he has created for Türkiye on the world stage.
According to Türkiye's election regulations, news, forecasts and comments about the vote are banned until 6pm local time on May 28, and the media is only free to report on election results from 9pm onwards. (Vietnam time is 4 hours ahead of Turkey time).
However, Türkiye's Supreme Election Council (YSK) may allow the media to report the results earlier, and often does. The results of the May 28 Turkish presidential runoff election may come out earlier than the May 14 general election, as the second round of voting is relatively simple.
Minh Duc (According to Euronews, Reuters, Politico.eu)
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