Vietnam's exports grow again in the first months of the year

Export growth in January 2024 was impressive and the export recovery is expected to continue its rapid growth momentum in the coming months.

Finding solutions to regain export growth momentum

What is the solution for sustainable export growth?

Sự tăng trưởng mạnh của xuất khẩu Việt Nam trong tháng 1 là do mức tăng gần 60% so với cùng kỳ trong mảng xuất khẩu máy tính và sản phẩm điện tử.

Vietnam's strong export growth in January was due to a nearly 60% year-on-year increase in exports of computers and electronic products.

VinaCapital in its recently published report stated that Vietnam's export growth is on the path to recovery, thereby becoming a positive signal for the economy.

Mr. Michael Kokalari - Director of Macroeconomic Analysis and Market Research at VinaCapital said that Vietnam's exports continued to increase in the fourth quarter of 2023 and increased sharply by 42% over the same period in January this year thanks to a 33% increase in the export of high-tech electronic products.

"The growth in January was impressive, despite coinciding with the Tet holiday, but due to the decline in exports last year. VinaCapital expects Vietnam's export recovery to continue its rapid growth momentum in the coming months," said Mr. Michael Kokalari.

U.S. companies over-ordered “Made in Vietnam” products during the Covid-19 supply chain disruptions and had to cut orders for these products last year to reduce inventory, but that trend is coming to an end after the fastest inventory reduction in more than 10 years, according to VinaCapital economists.

Lượng hàng tồn kho của các doanh nghiệp Mỹ đang giảm mạnh.

US business inventories are falling sharply.

As a result, Vietnam's export orders picked up again in January this year. The same was true in China, where new orders improved significantly last month.

Mr. Michael Kokalari said that the strong growth of Vietnam's exports in January was due to a nearly 60% increase in the export of computers and electronic products compared to the same period last year. Global personal computer (PC) industry revenue fell 30% year-on-year in early 2023 but grew again at the end of last year, partly due to users upgrading to higher configuration machines to handle artificial intelligence (AI).

Global smartphone sales are also expected to return to growth by the end of 2023. Vietnam's smartphone exports increased 16% year-on-year in January, thanks to the launch of the new Samsung S24 model during the month.

VinaCapital expects Vietnam's export recovery to continue its rapid growth momentum in the coming months.

The US is Vietnam's largest export market, so the recovery of consumption in this market has a huge impact on our country's export orders.

In 2022, for the first time, the export turnover of goods to the US reached 110 billion USD, and in 2023, affected by economic recession and high inflation, exports to the US decreased by 11.4%, reaching 97 billion USD.

In January 2024, the trade surplus to the US market is estimated at 8.2 billion USD, an increase of 57.6% over the same period last year.

VinaCapital assessed that the broad economic recovery from exports, production and consumption will boost listed company profits. This expected listed company profits to recover from a 33% decline in 2023 to a 50% increase in 2024 and listed banks' profits to increase from 6% to 18%.

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