Rubber exports in 2023 will only earn 2.89 billion USD

In September 2023, rubber exports to China increased for the 8th consecutive month. List of 3 agricultural and forestry products subject to the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR)

The Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) cited statistics from the General Department of Customs estimating that in 2023, Vietnam's rubber exports will reach about 2.14 million tons, worth 2.89 billion USD, down 0.04% in volume and 12.7% in value compared to 2022. The average export price will reach 1,350 USD/ton, down 12.7% compared to 2022.

Xuất khẩu cao su năm 2023 chỉ thu về 2,89 tỷ USD

In 2023, Vietnam's rubber exports will face many difficulties due to a sharp decline in rubber export prices, so the value of rubber exports will be much lower than the same period last year. Meanwhile, the recovery of production activities in China is weaker than forecast, causing both rubber consumption and selling prices to remain low.

In 2023, rubber exports to most markets will still decrease compared to the same period in 2022, especially large markets such as: India, the United States, Germany, Taiwan (China), Turkey, Sri Lanka, Russia, Indonesia, Spain... However, exports to some markets still grew well in volume such as: China, Korea, the Netherlands, Singapore, the Czech Republic...

Of which, China is still the largest market for Vietnam's rubber consumption, accounting for 79.22% in volume and 78.08% in value of the country's total rubber exports in the first 11 months of 2023. India ranked second, accounting for 5.34% in volume and 5.49% in value of the country's total rubber exports in the first 11 months of 2023.

In the world market, in 2023, rubber prices in the Asian market fluctuated strongly, with prices staying low in the first two quarters of the year and increasing again in the third and fourth quarters of 2023. Prices reached their highest levels of the year in October and November 2023, but then fell again. In December 2023, rubber prices fluctuated in opposite directions, compared to the end of the previous month, prices in Japan decreased; while prices in Shanghai and Thailand increased, driven by stable demand from Chinese factories, market hopes for stimulus measures in China, and concerns about a possible supply shortage in Thailand.

In the domestic market, in 2023, domestic raw rubber latex prices fluctuated according to world market trends. High latex prices decreased in the first two quarters of the year, then increased again in the third and fourth quarters of 2023.

In December 2023, raw rubber latex prices in some provinces and cities fluctuated slightly, rubber latex purchase prices in Binh Phuoc and Gia Lai were stable, while prices in Binh Duong and Ba Ria - Vung Tau increased slightly compared to the end of last month.

Of which, Phu Rieng Rubber Company kept the purchase price at 285-305 VND/TSC. Binh Long Rubber Company kept the purchase price at 285-295 VND/TSC. However, Ba Ria Rubber Company adjusted the purchase price to 283-293 VND/TSC, an increase of 3 VND/TSC; Phuoc Hoa Rubber Company also adjusted the purchase price of raw rubber latex to 314-316 VND/TSC, an increase of 3 VND/TSC compared to the end of November 2023.

According to the Vietnam Rubber Industry Group (VRG), in 2023, the Group's exploited rubber latex output is estimated to reach 445,000 tons, exceeding the annual plan by 4.7%, up 3.5% (equivalent to an increase of 15,400 tons) compared to the previous year; consumption reached 520,290 tons of all kinds of rubber, reaching 102.4% of the annual plan, up 3.8% (equivalent to an increase of 18,968 tons) compared to 2022. On average in 2023, the selling price of rubber latex of the whole Group is estimated at about 30.5 million VND/ton, down 5.8 million VND/ton (equivalent to a decrease of nearly 16%) compared to the selling price in 2022.

According to industry experts, in the coming time, Chinese demand will remain the key factor affecting rubber prices in Vietnam. In addition, fluctuations in oil prices due to concerns about trade disruptions in the Suez Canal will also indirectly affect rubber prices.

In 2024, China is expected to boost automobile consumption and manufacturing activities, leading to increased demand for rubber imports to produce tires and other products. China's increased rubber imports will be a driving force for rising global rubber prices. Meanwhile, nearly 80% of Vietnam's total rubber exports are exported to China.

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