Ukraine is in dire need of F-16 fighter jets from the West in its conflict with Russia. However, it will not be in time for Kiev's long-awaited counter-offensive.
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| Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is lobbying Western allies to provide F-16 fighter jets. (Source: AP) |
The necessary upgrade
For months, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been lobbying Western allies to supply his country with F-16 fighter jets, claiming their “historic” delivery would “significantly strengthen” Kiev’s forces.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin has condemned the proposal, calling it a huge risk and saying countries providing aircraft or training Ukrainian troops, including Britain, were “playing with fire”.
Like the HIMARS missile launcher, Leopard tanks and Patriot missiles before them, the F-16s have become a symbol of Western support, which Ukrainians say will provide the strength to push back Russian forces.
According to military experts, the appearance of these new fighter jets will be a much-needed upgrade for the Ukrainian army in the confrontation with Russia's superior air force.
However, they also warned that it would take months to fully integrate the new weapons into the Ukrainian military's systems, meaning the new fighters are unlikely to play any significant role in the Eastern European country's long-awaited counter-offensive this year.
Of all the surprises Kiev's forces have pulled off over the past 15 months, their ability to counter Russian airpower would be one of the biggest.
Russia's superior fighter jets are expected to quickly destroy Ukraine's aging fleet, giving Moscow the upper hand in conducting air strikes at will.
On the contrary, the Ukrainian air force remained steadfast, while Russian aircraft operating in Ukraine continuously faced the risk of being shot down by surface-to-air missiles, although the Ukrainian air force suffered heavy losses and the balance of power remained unfavorable to Ukraine.
Ukrainian pilots say they have to fly fighter jets, such as the MiG-29, at dangerously low altitudes to avoid more powerful Russian fighters and their formidable air defense systems.
This limits their ability to conduct air strikes on Russian positions. They also report being outnumbered by Russia's Su-35s and R-37 missiles, which have superior ranges.
As a result, Kiev has suffered serious losses in pilots and aircraft. Colonel Volodymyr Lohachov, head of the Ukrainian Air Force’s aviation development department, told reporters earlier this month that “our pilots are flying on a knife’s edge.”
Not a miracle
Last week, retired RAF General Edward Stringer told the Financial Times : “The F-16 is not a miracle, but a symbol of a more balanced conflict.”
“I don’t think the F-16s will give Ukraine air superiority in and of themselves, and I don’t think that’s their purpose,” said Gareth Jennings, an aviation expert at Janes. “Instead, they will allow Kiev to keep the Russian air force at as far a distance as possible.”
The US-made F-16 “Fighting Falcon” first entered service with the US Air Force in 1980.
The single-seat fighter aircraft designed for both air-to-air and air-to-ground combat has become popular with militaries around the world.
Currently, many countries have removed and sold off their F-16s to replace them with more modern aircraft such as the F-35.
But according to some experts, the F-16s are still a “quantum leap” compared to what the Ukrainian air force currently possesses. Besides, their combat effectiveness will depend on which type of F-16 is provided.
Even though the F-16 system has been upgraded with internal electronic systems and radars by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) over the years, some aviation analysts still warn that if Ukraine is only provided with older versions of the F16, they will still be surpassed by the latest Russian aircraft.
Commenting that the West will provide Kiev with outdated aid, Mr. Douglas Barrie, senior expert on military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said: "The weapons and equipment that Western countries have provided to Ukraine are not so 'outdated' that they are useless, but are quite new."
Also crucial will be the type of weapons provided. Providing longer-range air-to-air missiles than the AIM-120 would help support Ukrainian forces in the long term, Barrie said.
The F-16s can also be equipped with JDAM precision-guided bombs and HARM anti-radiation missiles designed to enhance air defense capabilities. Both of these weapons have been delivered to Ukraine.
However, according to Justin Bronk of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), even with these features, the F-16 still needs to be wary of Russian air defense systems, which means the fighters have to fly close to the ground when near the front line, which will reduce their effectiveness.
So how quickly all this can be done is the biggest question. Pilot training alone is estimated to take at least four months, with some forecasting even longer.
Ukraine will also need mechanics, ground support and logistics. Using Western contractors may save time but it is a mission of the utmost importance. It means the F-16s are unlikely to play a role in any imminent counter-attack.
Barrie believes that if a counterattack is launched in the near future, Ukraine will have to use all of its air power. Therefore, the greatest effect of the F-16s will probably be in the medium and long term, as an important guarantee for Ukraine's future.
Kiev has long said that regardless of the outcome of the campaign to regain territory, Ukraine needs a NATO-standard military force to defend the country in the long term.
Many see US President Joe Biden's decision to allow allies to export F-16s as an acknowledgement that Kiev's concerns are valid and that Washington is ready to do so.
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