Ukraine’s summer offensive, which began in June, has been a race against time. Observers say it has been delayed by up to nine months because of problems with Western arms deliveries to Ukraine. This has pushed Kyiv closer to the unfavorable mud season that is beginning to hit Ukraine, according to Newsweek .
In a counteroffensive over the past four months, the Ukrainian military claims to have retaken some areas controlled by Russian forces, but what has been achieved is less than what the country's political and military leaders may have hoped.
Ukrainian servicemen position a Skif anti-tank rocket launcher at a frontline position in Zaporizhzhia province on October 20.
Now the weather has changed, and even this week's significant troop influx of US military aid may not be enough to combat the challenges nature brings with it each season. "The autumn rains and winter cold change everything. Only the strongest and most adaptable to the new conditions will survive," Major Viktor Tregubov, who serves with the Ukrainian armed forces in the eastern Donetsk region, recently told Newsweek .
Putin: Russia 'actively defends', counterattack on Ukraine completely fails
Ukraine no longer has many opportunities?
"I'm afraid we should now admit that Ukraine has little chance of making significant territorial gains this summer," strategic analyst Frederik Mertens of the Hague Center for Security Studies told Newsweek . "It's no longer possible to count on breaking the bridge [connecting mainland Russia] to the Crimean peninsula before rasputitsa [Ukrainian mud season]. That part of Ukraine's summer offensive has failed."
Cutting off the land corridor connecting mainland Russia to Crimea and isolating the peninsula would be a major victory for Ukraine and is seen as one of the main objectives of the counteroffensive. Kyiv had hoped to open a road down to the Russian-controlled city of Tokmak in southern Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia province, from there to the city of Melitopol before reaching the Sea of Azov.
But Ukraine's mud season has always been a major one in the last months of the year, as it is in 2022. "Surely, it is much harder to be in the trenches than [in] the summer," said Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Goncharenko. He said many Ukrainian soldiers had been in the trenches for nearly 20 months, so "they are exhausted and tired." "It will be a harsh winter. We need to accept the truth," Goncharenko said.
"Cold weather doesn't really make you happier. If we're talking about combat readiness, the autumn rains and winter cold will change everything and limit the offensive capabilities of both sides," Goncharenko told Newsweek .
Ukrainian General: Winter does not affect counterattack because soldiers are mainly on foot
Ukraine's Solid Statement
Despite the impending weather that threatens to hamper the offensive, Ukraine has pledged to continue its efforts. Last month, Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's military intelligence, said that "in cold, wet and muddy weather, fighting is more difficult," but that "the fighting will continue, the counteroffensive will continue."
Ukrainian army captain Volodymyr Omelyan told Newsweek that fighting in the east and south is still possible, but that it will be a "big challenge." Omelyan added that it is difficult to predict how Ukraine's operations will unfold, but that Ukraine is "very grateful" to Western countries that have supported Kyiv.
M1A2 Abrams vehicle in a training exercise
Still, Ukraine remains optimistic. "Russia has been fighting against Ukraine since 2014; many autumns, winters and springs have been spent in combat operations," Yury Fedorenko, commander of the Achilles drone company of the 92nd Mechanized Brigade based in Kharkiv province, told Newsweek.
When it started to get cold and rainy, the ground became muddy, complicating logistics and disrupting deliveries to frontline positions. “But the enemy had the same problem,” Mr. Fedorenko asserted.
Ukraine's terrain is about to get muddy, is the Abrams tank suitable?
The mud could disrupt the deployment of 31 new Abrams tanks being delivered to Ukraine. The heavy M1 Abrams tanks supplied by the US will get bogged down due to their “limited mobility” in the muddy terrain and will likely need specialized armored vehicles to get them out, said Marina Miron, a postdoctoral researcher in the war studies department at King’s College London.
But it was not just tanks that helped bring victory. Commander Fedorenko said Ukrainian sources stressed the importance of drones and long-range missiles in destroying Russian assets and storage facilities far from the front line during the winter and spring.
Mr Fedorenko said guns, missile launchers and ammunition were even more important in maintaining pressure on Russian forces. "In areas that are impassable in the cold because of the mud, it is very important that we can ensure a firepower advantage over the enemy," Mr Fedorenko stressed.
Winter is not easy for Ukraine with its wounded energy system
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has long been a war of attrition, and there is no sign of that changing, according to Newsweek . Ukrainian MP Goncharenko said Kyiv needs to overcome the upcoming difficult situation to make much-needed progress and preserve Ukraine's experienced but battle-weary forces.
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