"We are approaching, or may have reached, the end of a long period of gradual reduction in the number of nuclear weapons worldwide," Dan Smith, director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI, Sweden), told AFP.
The total number of nuclear warheads in the nine countries - Britain, China, France, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia and the United States - fell from 12,710 at the start of 2022 to 12,512 at the start of 2023, according to AFP citing data from SIPRI. Of these, 9,576 were in "military stockpiles for use", 86 more than a year earlier.
SIPRI distinguishes between countries' available stocks and total stocks, including older stocks expected to be phased out.
China's DF-41 nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile during a military parade in Beijing
“The stockpile is usable nuclear warheads, and those numbers are starting to increase,” said Smith, noting that the number is still far from the more than 70,000 in the 1980s. However, he warned: “The big picture is that we’ve had more than 30 years of declining warhead numbers, and we see that coming to an end.”
Among the countries that increased their nuclear arsenals, China was estimated to have increased its stockpile significantly, from 350 to 410 warheads. India, Pakistan and North Korea also increased their stockpiles, and Russia increased to a smaller extent, from 4,477 to 4,489, while the rest maintained the size of their arsenals. Russia and the United States together still account for nearly 90 percent of the world's total nuclear weapons.
US says it is under pressure to modernize nuclear weapons from China and North Korea
Researchers at SIPRI also noted that diplomatic efforts on nuclear arms control and disarmament have failed since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
They pointed out that the US suspended the "bilateral strategic stability dialogue" with Russia after Moscow launched a military operation in Ukraine on February 24, 2022. In February 2023, Moscow announced that it was suspending its participation in the Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START) signed with the US in 2010.
SIPRI noted in a statement that New START "is the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty limiting the strategic nuclear forces of Russia and the United States."
Mr Smith said the increase in nuclear weapons stockpiles could not be explained by the Russia-Ukraine conflict because it took longer to develop new warheads and much of the increase was in countries not directly affected.
China has also invested heavily in its military as its economy and influence have grown. "What we are seeing is China emerging as a world power, that is the reality of our times," Mr Smith said, according to AFP.
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