Find and fix what's holding back your business, and your economy will grow by at least 8%

How the Vietnamese economy can achieve high growth, at least 8% by 2025, continues to be a topic that experts and businesses want to discuss.

How the Vietnamese economy can achieve high growth, at least 8% by 2025, continues to be a topic that experts and businesses want to discuss.

Deputy Prime Minister Ho Duc Phoc attended and delivered a speech at the 17th Vietnam Economic Scenario Forum, Spring 2025 Plenary Session on the afternoon of January 7, 2025.

The 17th Vietnam Economic Scenario Forum, Spring 2025 Plenary Session seemed like it would never end after 4 hours of continuous work on the afternoon of January 7, 2024. The topic - also the questions discussed, what is the growth driver of the economy in 2025 and what is the solution for the economy to achieve a high growth target, at least 8% and higher, is of great concern not only to economic experts. Businesses do not want to miss the opportunity to contribute more initiatives.

"High growth is difficult, but ensuring sustainability in high growth is even more difficult," Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Hong Son, Deputy Head of the Central Economic Commission emphasized in the opening of the Forum.

This is a Forum organized by the Vietnam Association of Science and Technology, Vietnam Economic Magazine and Vietnam Association of Small and Medium Enterprises, with content direction from the Central Economic Committee.

Growth challenges are not small, but there are ways to do it.

The growth rate of 8% and higher in 2025 is not only challenging in terms of high numbers, but also in terms of a fairly high base of 7.09% in 2024. Even the driving forces that created growth in 2024, such as exports, public investment, and consumption, seem unlikely to have a breakthrough.

Dr. Nguyen Bich Lam, former General Director of the General Statistics Office, spoke at Session 1 of the Forum with the topic of Growth Breakthrough from Traditional Driving Forces.

Even the export momentum that has just broken records - with a turnover of 405.53 billion USD, an increase of 14.3%, more than twice the planned target for 2024 - although still a driving force, whether it can surpass it is a difficult question. There are many reasons to worry, one is that the world economy may slow down, the world's consumers are not enthusiastic again... In particular, domestic and foreign experts have mentioned the rather complicated impacts of the Trump 2.0 administration, with tax increase scenarios.

Mr. Tran Quoc Khanh, former Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade, also mentioned the difficulties in diversifying export markets - although this is always a natural requirement and a priority for supporting businesses of the Ministry of Industry and Trade.

“It is not easy to find alternative markets to the US and China for products with large export turnover, because there are not many such large markets,” Mr. Khanh clarified his point of view. Therefore, Mr. Khanh’s point of view is that businesses need to continue to meet the requirements of the markets, ensuring the requirements of transparency of origin.

Regarding public investment motivation, according to Mr. Nguyen Ba Hung, Chief Economist of ADB Bank, the Government has allocated a budget of about 6-7% of GDP, equivalent to developing economies, but the implementation has only reached about 5% of GDP.

“That means low implementation efficiency. The recent reforms of the Government are creating opportunities to promote disbursement, such as amending regulations, but it needs to be done quickly, stronger measures are needed. The Government can do it right away, which is to reduce procedures more strongly,” Mr. Hung recommended.

In particular, Dr. Nguyen Bich Lam, former General Director of the General Statistics Office, is also not confident with the driving force that accounts for 63% of GDP growth, which is final consumption, by both the Government and the people.

“Currently, the growth rate of final consumption is only about 5-6%, compared to double-digit growth before the pandemic. To boost growth, it is necessary to increase the stimulus for the final consumption of the economy,” Dr. Lam recommended.

However, the method is not only to create income for people, policies to promote people's spending (such as reducing family deductions, reducing VAT rates...), Mr. Lam is concerned about the rate of consumption of imported goods, including imported services. Mr. Lam mentioned the trade deficit of 380 million USD in tourism services.

“5.6 million Vietnamese tourists going abroad spend more than 17.6 million foreign tourists coming to Vietnam. Why? Because domestic airfares are expensive, because there are not many products and services to buy...”, Mr. Lam said. If the reasons can be identified, there will be appropriate policy solutions.

Business perspective: The key words are “practical and fast”

Representing the business community participating in the discussion, Mr. Dau Anh Tuan, Deputy Secretary General of the Vietnam Federation of Commerce and Industry (VCCI), said that the growth space from the business perspective is very clear. That is the quality of regulations, the quality of enforcement and the quality of coordination.

Session 2 of the Forum with the theme of Unleashing new resources and motivations

“We had the opportunity to survey 30 projects that have just finished the investment phase. We have redrawn the actual process that the project must go through. This process is far different from the regulations in the documents. Many times, just one problem can cause the project to be blocked,” said Mr. Tuan.

Therefore, from the business perspective, growth momentum will come when two groups of problems are solved. One is the group of procedures to quickly bring capital into the economy. Two is the group of procedures to quickly bring goods to the market.

Specifically, Mr. Tuan proposed to review and prioritize immediately removing procedures related to land, planning, and construction procedures, ending the situation where a project takes 2-3 years to complete procedures.

“With the proposal of the Ministry of Planning and Investment in amending the Investment Law, there are special investment procedures for high-tech projects in industrial zones. The implementation here can be studied, experience gained and replicated, which will reduce costs for investors and quickly put capital into operation,” said Mr. Tuan.

Along with that, Mr. Tuan recommended cutting down on procedures related to customs clearance of goods and reducing storage time in warehouses. “Money and goods will circulate quickly, creating growth momentum,” Mr. Tuan expressed his opinion when referring to the requirements for removing institutional bottlenecks.

Also from the perspective of needing to change from practice, Mr. Dominic Scriven, Chairman of Dragon Capital, said that the best way is to evaluate and review the regulations and mechanisms currently in place, especially the problems and regulations that are having differences between entities, in order to make changes.

“Vietnam should dissect and look into the paradoxes to find ways to change. For example, the government bond interest rate is less than 2% while businesses want to borrow capital by issuing corporate bonds, the interest rate must be 9%. The risk gap for non-state entities is too high! This is just one example,” Mr. Dominic Scriven recommended.

Businesses expect that if they just find out what is hindering growth and development and prioritize removing it immediately, the growth space of the economy can reach at least 8%.

This is the basis for Mr. Phan Duc Hieu, Standing Member of the National Assembly's Economic Committee, to continue to emphasize the view that a business environment with low compliance costs, low risks, and promoting innovation... will promote growth.

"The driving force for growth will come from the creativity of businesses that are allowed to do what the law does not prohibit, what the law does not regulate," Mr. Hieu expressed his opinion.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/tim-va-sua-ngay-nhung-gi-dang-can-tro-doanh-nghiep-nen-kinh-te-se-tang-it-nhat-8-d239705.html