Opportunities and challenges for Egypt in the Israel-Hamas conflict

Efforts to promote the peace process for the Israel-Hamas conflict are an opportunity for Egypt to maintain, promote its interests and expand its influence in the Middle East and Africa.

Egypt has emerged as a key player in mitigating the damage and promoting peace in the Israel-Hamas conflict. In this photo: The second aid shipment enters the Gaza Strip from the Egyptian-controlled Rafah border crossing on October 22. (Source: AFP)

Special role

In recent days, Egypt has emerged as a country with a special role in finding a solution to the increasingly tense conflict between Israel and the Islamic Movement Hamas. Recently, on October 21, a convoy of 20 vehicles, carrying aid, necessities and fuel, entered the Gaza Strip from Egypt's Rafah border gate.

This is the first aid shipment to the area under siege by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) since October 9, two days after Hamas launched a surprise attack that killed 1,400 Israelis. In the following days, two other humanitarian aid shipments also passed through the Rafah border crossing.

Writing on social network X , the United Nations (UN) Humanitarian Coordinator, Mr. Martin Griffiths, praised the shipments passing through Egypt's Rafah border crossing: "I am confident that such shipments will be the beginning of sustainable efforts to deliver essential goods - including food, water, medicine and fuel - to the people of Gaza in a safe, reliable, unconditional and unhindered manner."

The UN estimates that at least 100 shipments a day are needed to keep Gazans alive today. The Rafah border crossing between Egypt and the region will become a focal point in UN and international efforts to mitigate the humanitarian crisis there.

Egypt’s role in mitigating the damage from the conflict is not limited to the Rafah border crossing. On October 21, Cairo hosted a peace summit to de-escalate the conflict. With only a few days of preparation, the special event was attended by a large number of representatives from other countries and regional organizations.

Among them are Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, Jordan's King Abdullah II, Qatar's Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, United Arab Emirates (UAE) President Mohamed bin Zayed, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, European Union (EU) High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Canadian President Justin Trudeau and Chinese Special Envoy for the Middle East Ze Xuan.

The conference failed to produce a joint statement, but it reflected the international community’s concern and commitment to ending the Israel-Hamas conflict, with Egypt emerging as a key player. Why is this happening?

The peace summit on the Israel-Hamas conflict took place on October 21 in Cairo, Egypt. (Source: Reuters)

Many advantages

First of all, geographically, Egypt shares a 206km border with Israel, stretching along the eastern edge of the Sinai Peninsula to its junction with the Gaza Strip and the Gulf of Aqaba in the Red Sea. More importantly, it is home to Rafah, the only border crossing between Gaza and the outside world that is not controlled by Israel. As such, Egypt plays a key role in the international community’s current humanitarian efforts in Gaza.

Historically, the Jewish State and Cairo have had a troubled past. The two sides have gone through many confrontations such as the Arab-Israeli War (1948) and the Yom Kippur War (1973). However, the 1979 peace agreement brokered by then US President Jimmy Carter became a turning point, laying the foundation for the two sides to establish bilateral relations in 1980. Egypt has become one of the rare Arab countries to have relations with the Jewish State.

Since then, despite some ups and downs, bilateral relations have maintained a steady growth momentum. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has close ties with Cairo, stated in 2011: “Egypt is not only our most important partner in the region, but our bilateral cooperation has gone beyond strategic.”

In that context, according to Ms. Mirette Mabrouk, Director of the Egypt Program at the Washington-based Middle East Institute (USA), when Israel besieged the Gaza Strip, this country and the US "expected that in the context of Cairo's economic difficulties, Egypt would accept to trade financial support for the people of the Gaza Strip to come here".

In terms of status, despite economic hardship and internal and external political upheaval over the past decade, Egypt still has a significant voice in the region. The fact that the Peace Summit, despite not having much time to prepare, still attracted the participation of 30 national and regional leaders is a clear demonstration.

“Egypt is not only our most important partner in the region, but our bilateral cooperation has gone beyond strategic.” (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu)

Many barriers

But that does not mean everything is “rosy” for Egypt in its efforts to promote the peace process for the Israel-Hamas conflict, especially with the following barriers.

First, the serious impact of this conflict. Despite hopes that Egypt could accept Gaza refugees in exchange for economic aid, and calls from several countries, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has refused. This is understandable, since Egypt already hosts 9 million refugees and migrants from many other countries, including Syria, Sudan, Yemen and Libya. Opening the door to the Palestinians would mean Cairo would have to deal with the resulting security issues.

Mr. Robert Satloff, Executive Director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (USA), commented that Cairo clearly understood the serious political consequences once it “nodded”: “They consider this a red line that cannot be crossed. Therefore, the Cairo government would rather face economic difficulties than accept a large number of refugees.”

Equally worrying is the economic impact. S&P (USA) assessed that in the context of Egypt's economic difficulties, the conflict right next to the border will directly affect energy imports/exports: "The closure of Israel's Tamar oil field has caused Egypt's gas imports to decrease from 22.6 million to 17 million cubic meters/day, affecting domestic consumption and exports."

Finally, despite the persuasive appeals to Egypt, the US, Israel and the West have maintained a certain caution towards the North African country. The West has repeatedly reported the human rights situation to Cairo. For the US, it was the recent incident involving Senator Robert Menendez, who was accused of collaborating with Egypt. In the worst case, the US's annual aid to Cairo would be suspended.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi (right) talks with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on October 15 in Cairo. (Source: Reuters)

Meanwhile, Israel has reason to be cautious as despite good bilateral relations between the two governments, anti-Semitism in Egypt remains high.

An August 2022 survey by the Washington Institute found that only 11% of respondents supported cooperation with Israel, and 14% supported Israel normalizing relations with the Arab world. These numbers have not changed significantly over the past decades.

Interestingly, this is in stark contrast to the government-level relationship that has existed for the past 40 years. However, Mr. El-Sisi clearly does not want to miss a good opportunity to “score points”, with the Egyptian presidential election taking place in less than 2 months.

This partly explains the interesting message of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi when receiving US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on October 15. On the one hand, he did not hesitate to say that Israel had exceeded its “right to self-defense”, a phrase that has been mentioned many times by the Jewish State and the West in recent times. On the other hand, the Egyptian leader made it clear that his country “has never targeted Jews” in the region.

Through the above statements, it can be seen that the Egyptian leader wants to maintain domestic support while not losing relations with the Jewish State.

In the past, Egypt has been an important mediator between Israel and Hamas. Will history repeat itself?

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/thoi-co-thach-thuc-cho-ai-cap-trong-xung-dot-israel-hamas-247348.html