ANTD.VN - Although the corporate bond market has gone through its most difficult period, the possibility of default is no longer there, but the "dropping point" of bond debt has shifted to around the middle of next year. This requires synchronous solutions to resolve.
Bond default unlikely
According to data from the Vietnam Bond Market Association (VBMA), from the beginning of the year to mid-August 2024, the total value of corporate bond issuance was recorded at VND 212,512 billion, with 13 public issuances worth VND 22,773 billion (accounting for 10.7% of the total issuance value) and 195 private issuances worth VND 189,739 billion (accounting for 89.3% of the total).
Along with that, businesses bought back before maturity reached 111,910 billion VND, down 27.1% over the same period in 2023.
Statistics from the State Securities Commission show that, as of the end of July 2024, in terms of market size, the value of listed corporate bonds reached about VND 773,000 billion, with 1,043 bond codes of 264 issuers recorded on the corporate bond trading system of the Hanoi Stock Exchange.
In the primary market, the value of successful issuances in the first 7 months of the year reached more than VND 174,000 billion, an increase of more than 2.78 times over the same period in 2023, of which the value of private issuance accounted for 87% and the value of public issuance accounted for 13%.
In the secondary market, according to transaction reports from the Hanoi Stock Exchange, by the end of July 2024, the total transaction value reached nearly VND 576 trillion, with an average of about VND 4 trillion per session.
Thus, it can be seen that the corporate bond market has warmed up significantly, especially after the Government's Decree 08 was issued, which removed some difficulties for businesses such as allowing businesses to negotiate and extend bond debt, postpone conditions for professional securities investors, and credit ratings.
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The bond market is gradually improving. |
According to economic expert, Dr. Can Van Luc, the story of corporate bond maturity, especially real estate enterprises, can be said to have overcome the most difficult period (June - August 2023) since Decree 08 was issued.
Mr. Luc said that this year, the bond market has 213,000 billion VND maturing, of which real estate alone accounts for 37%, equivalent to about 70,000 billion VND.
Basically, 60% of businesses have extended their 2-year terms (peak June 2025), businesses proactively buy back bonds according to issuance conditions and start issuing again to reduce capital pressure. In addition, the real estate market is warming up, businesses are willing to sell assets to set aside a portion to pay off debt.
Therefore, the expert believes that the phenomenon of bankruptcy is unlikely to happen because the most difficult time has passed, and there are many synchronous solutions to solve it. In fact, real estate businesses do not need to discount products by 40-50% like before, discounting about 10% has already sold.
Removing legal obstacles to resolve bond debt "drop point"
However, many opinions are concerned that Decree 08 has expired since the beginning of this year, the difficulties of the bond market may return to a difficult period when the "falling point" of bond debt extension may fall in mid-2025.
According to Ms. Tran Kim Dung, Deputy Director of the Securities Offering Management Department, State Securities Commission, Decree 08 has expired, so the time for the Government to loosen the issuance of individual corporate bonds is temporarily postponed. Whether or not the amendment of Decree 65 will continue to be open for negotiation or not, we still have to wait for the opinion of the Ministry of Finance.
According to Mr. Pham Van Hieu, Deputy Head of the Financial Market Department, Department of Banking and Finance, Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Finance has reported to the Government on the implementation status. Currently, according to the Government's viewpoint, some provisions that have been suspended or expired in Decree 08 will begin to be implemented according to Decree 65 from January 1, 2024 (professional investor standards and credit ratings).
The remaining two amendments in Decree 08 will continue to be implemented in accordance with the spirit of the Decree (debt extension, bond payment with other assets). Regarding the study of amending Decree 65, the Ministry of Finance is reviewing and amending a number of articles of the Securities Law. After that, closely following the Securities Law to amend Decree 65.
This means that businesses can still negotiate a debt deferral with bondholders in accordance with Decree 08. However, according to Mr. Nguyen Quang Thuan, General Director of FiinRatings, the extension of Decree 08 is not a big problem. The bigger problem is that overdue debt is very large in 2024-2025.
What we can do is to involve the Government's project on solving real estate legal problems. Once this problem is solved, handling overdue debt will be very easy.
“It should be noted that the largest source of money is not bank loans or bonds but money received from customers, which means that support from the surrounding area is also very important. We should not only focus on rescuing bonds. Surrounding measures are much more important, which is legal "cleanliness" - Mr. Thuan said.
Source: https://www.anninhthudo.vn/thi-truong-trai-phieu-doanh-nghiep-lieu-da-ha-canh-mem-post586996.antd
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