On March 1, 2024, citing information from Rice Outlook on the website of the Economic Research Service of the United States Department of Agriculture-USDA, the Vietnam Trade Office in Houston (USA) said that global rice output in the 2023-2024 crop year is expected to reach a record 513.7 million tons (milled), up 0.2 million tons compared to the forecast last month and 0.8 million tons compared to a year earlier.
In February 2024, rice production is forecast to increase in Sri Lanka and Uzbekistan, offsetting declines in the Philippines and Kazakhstan.
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| Global rice production in 2023-24 is expected to reach a record 513.7 million tonnes. Illustrative photo |
On an annual basis, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Myanmar, Cambodia, Colombia, Egypt, the European Union, Ghana, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, the United States and Uruguay account for the majority of the projected increase in global rice production in 2023-24. Of these, Pakistan and the United States are projected to achieve the largest increase in production in 2023-24 as both countries harvested unusually small crops in 2022-23 due to adverse weather.
The forecast for U.S. early grain exports in 2023/24 was raised 2.0 million cwt to 63.0 million, and the forecast for total U.S. rice exports in 2023/24 was raised 2.0 million cwt to 87.0 million cwt, 35% higher than a year earlier and the highest since 2020/21. Long-grain coarse rice accounted for the entire upward revision to the February 2024 U.S. rice export forecast.
On the 2024 importing side, forecasts were raised for Indonesia, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, and the United States, but lowered for China, Nepal, Nigeria, Sri Lanka, and Türkiye. Over the past month, milled rice prices from both Thailand and Vietnam declined, while US milled rice quotes were unchanged.
According to the US Department of Agriculture, the global rice supply in 2024 is forecast to decrease, while import demand from many countries tends to increase. Typically, global rice trade continues to be affected by India's policy of temporarily suspending rice exports.
Along with that, the global rice supply is forecasted to no longer be abundant when the main supplier accounting for 40% of global output, India, will decrease by 4 million tons compared to the previous crop year, to only 132 million tons; other markets such as the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Cambodia... are also forecasted to decrease in output due to the impact of the El Nino phenomenon and climate change.
Global ending stocks for 2023-24 are forecast at 167.2 million tonnes, down 8.6 million tonnes from the previous season and the lowest in six seasons.
Meanwhile, in the domestic market, the country's rice output in 2024 is expected to remain at the same level as in 2023 (43.5 million tons) under optimistic weather conditions. However, the volume of rice inventory carried over to 2024 will decrease sharply, so it is necessary to closely balance the rice output of each crop with domestic consumption demand.
Rice exports in 2024 are forecast to continue to be vibrant as demand from major consumer markets in Southeast Asia such as Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, China and Africa increases due to concerns that the hot El Nino weather will last until mid-2024.
Domestic prices are also forecast to remain stable at high levels and maintain an upward trend. Therefore, the rice export plan for 2024 is about 6.5 million tons.
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