In 2024, the steel industry has passed the most difficult period. However, with the challenges still present, in 2025 the steel industry still needs more time to make a breakthrough.
Recovering from the bottom
The steel industry has been sluggish in the second and third quarters, but overall it has maintained a more stable growth rate than the same period last year. Notably, at the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter, the steel industry received important “support” from the “heat” of the Chinese steel industry.
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| In 2024, the steel industry has passed the most difficult period. However, with the challenges still present, in 2025 the steel industry still needs more time to make a breakthrough. Photo: Hoa Phat Steel |
At this time, steel prices here have recovered from multi-year lows and even climbed to a three-month high. Prices of steelmaking raw materials, iron ore, have also continued to rise.
Accordingly, steel prices in the domestic market have also started to increase again since the end of September. After many consecutive adjustments, domestic steel prices are currently stable at around 14 million VND/ton.
Recently, Hoa Phat Group Joint Stock Company announced that it has just supplied 10,000 tons of large-sized steel pipes to the project of the largest National Exhibition Center in Southeast Asia in Dong Anh (Hanoi). The products used in the project are large-sized steel pipes for processing steel structures.
Not only supplying the domestic market, in the context of the world market demand gradually recovering, Hoa Phat continues to promote the export of construction steel. By the end of the third quarter of 2024, Hoa Phat's steel export output exceeded 1 million tons, equivalent to the whole year of 2021.
Notably, many other steel manufacturing enterprises such as Nam Kim Steel Joint Stock Company, Hoa Sen Group Joint Stock Company... also prospered in production and consumption.
Assessing the prospects of the steel industry, Mr. Duong Duc Quang, Deputy General Director of the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), said that this year, the Vietnamese steel industry has shown many signs of recovery and has gradually stabilized after a long period of decline. The recovery data is still mainly compared based on the low base level of last year. Therefore, in the short term, our steel industry has not been able to break through to a new growth phase and is expected to continue to be sluggish, at least in the first half of next year. However, in terms of opportunities, this can be considered a time for the Vietnamese steel industry to make efforts to improve and seek a more sustainable direction in the future.
Regarding this issue, Mr. Pham Cong Thao, Deputy General Director of Vietnam Steel Corporation, said that according to the forecast of the World Steel Association, the demand for finished steel in 2024 will grow by 1.9% compared to 2023, of which the steel consumption demand of the European region will grow by 5.7% (this is also one of the largest steel export markets of Vietnam), and the ASEAN region will grow by 5.2%.
2025 - the domestic market will break out
According to experts, the domestic steel market will make a breakthrough in 2025. The main driving force is the recovery of the real estate market when the supply of apartments in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City is forecast to increase by an average of 21% per year in the period 2025 - 2026.
The rebound from domestic demand will boost the growth of steel enterprises in the coming time. Previously, on December 5, 2024, Hoa Phat Dung Quat Steel Joint Stock Company, a member of Hoa Phat Group, officially opened a 300-ton blast furnace at Hoa Phat Dung Quat 2 Iron and Steel Complex, located in Dung Quat Economic Zone.
According to the plan, the super project will be put into production in phase 1 in 2025, with blast furnace 1 operating at 50% capacity, equivalent to 1.4 million tons, contributing positively to the business results of Hoa Phat Group. By 2026, blast furnace 2 will start operating at 50% capacity, while the capacity of furnace 1 will be increased to 80%. By 2028, the entire system will reach maximum capacity.
Ms. Vo Thi Ngoc Han, Senior Research Director of Industry and Technology, Ho Chi Minh City Securities Company, said that the steel industry has an optimistic outlook thanks to the Government's large investment in infrastructure, along with the recovery of the real estate market when legal problems are resolved and projects are cleared. It is forecasted that steel consumption in Vietnam will record a growth rate of 14% by the end of 2024 and an increase of 11% in 2025.
In the immediate future, to "revive" the steel industry, according to economic experts, ministries, branches and localities need to step up the implementation of public investment projects; remove difficulties for the real estate market, lead and attract investment from the whole society to increase total demand for the steel industry.
At the same time, urgently and effectively implement regional and local planning and national sectoral planning, including 4 sectoral planning in the fields of energy and minerals, contributing to creating demand for consumption and exploitation and processing of minerals for steel production.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade has recently requested industry associations to promote their role as a bridge to support steel production and trading enterprises; strengthen forecasting and provide information on the demand for iron and steel, especially construction steel, to enterprises to balance the demand for steel supplied to the domestic market and for export; actively support steel enterprises to be proactive in production, balance domestic consumption and export of steel products to improve production and business efficiency.
Source: https://congthuong.vn/qua-giai-doan-kho-khan-nganh-thep-sang-cua-phuc-hoi-trong-nam-2025-366139.html
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