(CLO) Associate Professor, Dr. Tran Kim Chung, former Deputy Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management, said that in 2025, the Vietnamese real estate market will face five main risks.
At the workshop “Price market developments in Vietnam in 2024 and forecast for 2025” held on the morning of January 9, Associate Professor, Dr. Tran Kim Chung, former Deputy Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management, said that the real estate market in 2025 will face certain risks.
The first relates to international risks. In the context of unpredictable geopolitical conflicts in the world, coupled with competition between major countries, especially with the new US administration, international socio-economic risks are present but very difficult to predict.
In 2025, the Vietnamese real estate market will face 5 main risks. (Photo: ST)
Second, macroeconomic risks. In 2025, the macro economy is forecast to be stable. Therefore, the real estate market will basically be stable.
“Normally, according to the 10-year cycle of the real estate market, 2025 is the year the real estate market benefits from macroeconomic policies,” said Associate Professor, Dr. Tran Kim Chung.
Third, there will not be many policy and mechanism risks in 2025. The basic policies that were passed in 2024, although there are still some policies that need to be continued, will basically not appear in 2025. Therefore, the policy risks in 2025 are very few.
Fourth, market risk. In 2025, apart from major fluctuations outside the Vietnamese economy, there are not many indicators of fluctuations in the domestic market, so it can be seen that the real estate market risk in 2025 is low.
Fifth, counterparty risks in 2025 will not have major fluctuations. The difficulties of enterprises, especially in terms of procedures and capital (bonds), have been fully exposed. Therefore, potential counterparty risks in 2025 will be minimized.
In that context, Associate Professor Dr. Tran Kim Chung proposed 3 scenarios for the real estate market in 2025.
Neutral scenario, the market shows signs of heating up but not strongly. This is the most likely and clearest scenario in the context of the end of 2024.
Positive scenario, the market explodes, all segments grow strongly. However, this scenario is very unlikely to happen.
The worst case scenario, the one that no one wants and is unlikely to happen, is a bear market. However, it can still happen if external factors arise in the economy.
Faced with adverse impacts on the real estate market, Associate Professor Dr. Tran Kim Chung recommended continuing to promote the institutionalization of issues related to the real estate market, especially tax tools and derivative financial instruments.
At the same time, urgently pass the Law on Real Estate Tax. Second, research and realize derivative financial instruments, such as shared ownership, mutual savings funds, re-mortgage systems, and real estate investment trusts.
Associate Professor, Dr. Tran Kim Chung proposed realizing and implementing mechanisms, such as: reclaiming land adjacent to infrastructure works, auctioning them, and constructing according to the plan to create capital for infrastructure development.
Mr. Chung also proposed a mechanism to use local budgets to invest in central infrastructure projects and infrastructure projects outside the province (in regional linkages)...
Associate Professor Dr. Tran Kim Chung also suggested synchronizing planning in provinces and centrally-run cities. The most important thing is to synchronize planning and place it on a land parcel map.
In addition, focus on reviewing, unifying, and synchronizing urban development, infrastructure, and production plans in the province through synchronizing planning and implementation plans, thereby having a provincial-level action program on urban and rural development, infrastructure works, and real estate projects.
"The real estate market in 2025 will develop explosively if all relevant documents are simultaneously institutionalized; planning is synchronized; derivative instruments are fully financialized; market information is digitized and land and real estate management is differentiated," said Mr. Chung.
Source: https://www.congluan.vn/nhan-dien-nhung-rui-ro-tac-dong-toi-thi-truong-bat-dong-san-nam-2025-dau-la-rao-can-post329677.html
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