Pepper output is forecast to continue to decrease by 10-15%, with very little inventory left, and with high demand... pepper prices are forecast to continue to be high in 2025.
Mr. Hoang Phuoc Binh - former Permanent Vice President of Chu Se Pepper Association had an interview with reporters of Industry and Trade Newspaper about this issue.
Sir, as someone with more than 40 years of experience growing pepper, what is your assessment of this year's pepper crop?
Mr. Hoang Phuoc Binh: We have just surveyed key pepper growing provinces and recorded opinions from pepper growers showing that this year, the general consensus is that the pepper growing area is expected to decrease by 10-15% compared to last year, in which, in Dak Lak province, the area decreased more than in other localities because pepper is encroached by other crops, including durian and coffee.
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| Growers take care of pepper gardens for the new crop. Photo: Hoang Thien |
In particular, the three southeastern provinces of Ba Ria – Vung Tau, Dong Nai, and Binh Phuoc, where large areas of cultivation have also decreased. In Dak Nong province, the eastern half of the province had a good harvest but the western half had a bad harvest. The decrease in area means a decrease in output.
An example of the story of the reduced area is that we talked to a pepper dealer who shared that they had bought dozens of tons of pepper roots to sell to Chinese traders for medicine and food seasoning.
Along with the forecast of reduced output, the current inventory is also almost depleted. The reason is that in the past 4 years (from 2020 to now), there has been no new planting area. Not to mention that from 2018 to the end of 2022, in existing pepper gardens, gardeners did not plant more pepper but only cultivated on existing crops. It was not until 2023 that some households planted additional crops (planting new trees to replace old or diseased trees), and there were very few new pepper gardens in the form of specialized gardens.
It can be said that the newly planted area is generally insignificant and with this area, it will take another 4 years for us to have additional pepper harvest.
This means that the pepper gardens that are currently being harvested were all planted in 2017 or earlier. Many of these gardens have entered the aging stage, and pepper output may continue to decrease. In fact, this has been happening since last year. With such developments, pepper growers need to make calculations for their pepper gardens, the amount of pepper harvested, and the selling price.
In 2024, pepper prices will increase sharply, which means farmers will have more profits. So what is the reason why pepper plants continue to be invaded by other crops, sir?
Mr. Hoang Phuoc Binh: Currently, durian and coffee trees bring in huge income. For example, with durian trees, if done well, they can yield billions of VND/ha after deducting costs. Or like with coffee trees, they also bring in income from 300 - 400 million VND/ha. But with pepper trees today, it is difficult to find areas that can generate such income.
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| Mr. Hoang Phuoc Binh - Former Permanent Vice President and General Secretary of Chu Se Pepper Association (Gia Lai) |
We have consulted in many regions, many people who have grown pepper said they are afraid to grow pepper again. Those who have grown pepper and have switched to other crops are only 20-25% likely to return to growing pepper. In their current thinking, they are looking towards coffee and durian, not pepper.
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the pepper area nationwide in 2023 will reach 115,000 hectares, down 4.2% compared to 2022 and down 24.3% compared to the year with the highest area in 2017, about 151,900 hectares. According to the planning of the agricultural sector, the pepper area is expected to decrease to about 110,000 hectares in the coming time.
This means that a large area of pepper that has decreased in recent times has been replaced by durian and coffee trees. Therefore, at this point, it is very difficult to expand the area to develop pepper trees on a large scale and quickly like in previous cycles.
Regarding labor, we surveyed many areas and found that the majority of pepper growers are elderly.
Another problem is that if anyone wants to grow pepper in the future, they can only use their own capital and cannot borrow from the bank. Because in the previous cycle, when the price dropped to the lowest, people suffered losses, and the bank had a lot of overdue debt, so they were also hesitant to lend to farmers to grow pepper.
With such forecasts on output and season, what is your assessment of pepper prices in the coming time?
Mr. Hoang Phuoc Binh: It is expected that farmers will start harvesting pepper after the Lunar New Year of At Ty and it will last until the end of April 2025. This will prolong the time gap for supplying goods to the market.
On the other hand, people have a very large income from coffee and durian, with income much higher than previous years due to good selling prices. This means that many families with pepper gardens are doing business, if they do not have income from pepper, they have other sources of income and are not under pressure to sell right at the time of harvest. Therefore, the pressure to sell will be less, the supply of goods to the market will be less than in previous years.
Another problem is that on June 13, 2024, pepper prices have 'jumped' from 120,000 - 130,000 VND/kg to 180,000 VND/kg. Therefore, it is predicted that this year, pepper growers will also have the mentality of leaving their goods waiting for prices to increase rather than selling immediately after harvest.
In 2024, China bought very little pepper from Vietnam, so it is predicted that they will need to buy a lot in the 2025 crop. Along with that, other markets have a common mentality of waiting for Vietnam's harvest season to focus massively on buying.
Vietnam's pepper output currently accounts for about 60% of the world's total demand. Perhaps, buyers' demand is greater than sellers' demand. With less supply and more demand, pepper prices will be better than they are now.
Currently, pepper price is around 150,000 VND/kg. It is forecasted that in 2025, pepper price may increase to over 240,000 - 250,000 VND/kg.
Thank you!
| Global pepper production in 2025 is forecast to continue to decline compared to 2024, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline since 2022. This reflects the fact that pepper is no longer the main crop for many farmers, especially in the context of the significant increase in economic value of other crops such as durian, coffee and oil palm. In addition, climate change with extreme weather events has reduced productivity and increased the cost of maintaining pepper production. |
Source: https://congthuong.vn/nam-2025-gia-ho-tieu-duoc-du-bao-se-len-240000-250000-dongkg-371042.html
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