La Nina could replace El Nino this year

The US National Weather Service predicts that El Nino will weaken in the coming months, giving way to La Nina, which could cool global temperatures.

Flooding in Los Angeles on February 5. Photo: Washington Post — Flooding in Los Angeles on February 5. Photo: *Washington Post*

Signs of a record-strong El Nino global climate pattern have become apparent in recent weeks, including devastating wildfires in South America and flooding in California. However, scientists predict the pattern could disappear within months, according to the Washington Post . Forecasters at the US National Weather Service warned of El Nina on February 8, predicting a 55% chance of an El Nino-like pattern developing by August 2024.

The development of La Nina has major implications for weather in the United States and around the world. It can temporarily slow the global warming that began about nine months ago when El Nino took hold. La Nina is also known for fueling a strong and destructive Atlantic hurricane season, while also promoting drought conditions in Southern California and the U.S. Midwest. It tends to cool global temperatures. While it won’t end the decade-long warming of the planet, La Nina can reduce the extreme levels of warming that scientists have recently observed.

January 2024 was the warmest month on record for Earth, marking the eighth consecutive month of record temperatures. It also marked the end of a 12-month period in which the planet reached the worrying milestone of 1.5 degrees Celsius above the 19th-century average, before fossil fuel consumption became widespread, according to the European Union's climate change agency, Copernicus Climate Change Service.

What are El Nino and La Nina?

Earth's weather is influenced by El Nino or La Nina depending on conditions along the equatorial Pacific Ocean. When the east-west trade winds weaken or even reverse, warm ocean water collects along the surface of the central and eastern Pacific, leading to El Nino and its knock-on effects on weather around the world, including warmer-than-normal conditions in the southern United States, including Southern California, a weakened Atlantic hurricane season, and drought and wildfires in Indonesia and southern Africa.

Climate scientists' predictions for the coming months

Forecasters at the National Weather Service said on February 8 that the eastern and central Pacific Ocean warmed up in January, as did the wind patterns associated with El Nino. Meanwhile, climate forecasting models indicate that El Nino will remain weak through the spring months. The forecasts predict a 79% chance of “neutral” conditions, absent of both El Nino and La Nina, from April to June 2024.

The researchers note that it can be difficult to predict how El Nino or La Nina will develop in the spring months, as the model often switches around that time, making it more challenging to predict trends. But rapid shifts to La Nina are common after record-breaking El Ninos, such as the current one. Similar examples occurred during the strong El Ninos of 1982-83 and 1997-98, according to Tom Di Liberto, a climate scientist at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Regardless of how quickly it weakens, El Niño is likely to continue influencing global climate patterns for months to come. “Even though it has passed its peak, it still has some impact,” Di Liberto said.

Impact of La Nina transition

Scientists will be closely watching how the shift from the warming pattern of El Nino to the cooling influence of La Nina could impact average temperatures around the world. That could help answer the crucial question of whether the pace of global warming and climate change is accelerating.

It's possible that a shift to La Nina could moderate global temperatures in 2024 and prevent them from exceeding 2023, supporting the hypothesis that 2023 marks a stable path for global temperatures, according to Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

But if 2024 ends up warmer than scientists expect, despite the existence of the La Nina pattern, it could add to the evidence that the system has changed. Climate change also provides more data and opportunities to learn how global warming might affect El Nino and La Nina. Climate scientists don’t have a clear answer yet, but they suspect the frequency of strong El Nino and La Nina events will likely increase over the next century.

An Khang (According to Washington Post )

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