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| Türkiye election: Economic stalemate and 'love affair' with Russia test reformer Erdogan. In photo: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (left) and President Vladimir V. Putin during a meeting in Sochi, 2021. (Source: Kremlin) |
Observers say that a defeat for Mr Erdogan in the Turkish election would make Moscow nervous because it could lose an important economic and diplomatic partnership, while Western leaders would be happy to have “an easier Turkey”.
The results of the Turkish presidential election show that incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has passed the first test by winning 49.35% of the votes, while his main rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu won 45% of the votes. No candidate won 50%, so the “race” will move to the second round, held on May 28.
The “Weight” of Ankara
Commenting on the results, Russia said it expects cooperation with Ankara to continue and deepen, regardless of who wins the election.
But in fact , every development of the Turkish election is being closely monitored not only from the Kremlin, but also from Western capitals, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) headquarters, or the White House. and across the region — where President Erdogan has asserted Turkish “power,” while strengthening ties with Russia and straining Ankara’s own traditional alliance with the United States.
Reality has shown that the influence could not be better, demonstrating Ankara's "weight" in the vast international economic and political system, causing policymakers in the West, Moscow, the Middle East and beyond... to give President Erdogan special attention.
Because the results of this election will not only decide who will be the important leader of the country of 85 million people, but also decide how to run the country, the direction of the economy to escape the current deadlock and shape foreign policy in the face of unpredictable turns, which will impact the economic and political life of the region.
As former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt made no secret of saying, “we all want an easier Türkiye.” Ankara, a strategically important member of NATO, has become an increasingly complex and unpredictable partner for the European Union (EU) under Erdogan.
For example, in the 10 packages of Western sanctions against Russia related to the military campaign in Ukraine, Türkiye has announced that it will not participate. Because for Ankara, applying sanctions will harm its own economy more than the Russian economy.
The Turkish presidential spokesman also said that Ankara adheres to its own interests and does not follow the West in sanctioning Russia, as it is guided by pragmatic economic considerations and a balanced policy.
By refusing to enforce Western sanctions against Moscow, President Erdogan has helped undermine efforts to isolate the Kremlin and starve it of funds for its military campaign.
However, thanks to that, the Turkish economy, which has been struggling recently, has benefited from the sharp drop in Russian oil prices, helping leader Erdogan "seek" another 5-year term.
Win-win
For Russia, under President Erdogan, Türkiye has become an indispensable trading partner and sometimes a trusted diplomatic intermediary, such as the grain deal with Kiev. This relationship has become even more important to the Kremlin since the military conflict with Ukraine.
For the Turkish economy, Erdogan’s 20 years in power have seen a non-aligned foreign policy—one that has often frustrated Western allies but opened up economic opportunities, as well as “valuable” diplomacy with Moscow—perhaps never been better.
Not only has Erdogan refused to join Western sanctions against Russia and provided the country with oil and gas, Turkey has also become a much-needed importer for Moscow and a vital link to the global economy amid tightening Western sanctions.
For its part, Türkiye has benefited not only from cheap energy, but also from Russian investment and tourism revenue, which has increased significantly since the military campaign in Ukraine. Russia is building Turkey’s first nuclear power plant, and since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Moscow has announced plans to turn Türkiye into a natural gas trading hub.
Although Putin has not openly interfered in Türkiye’s elections, recent developments have shown that he has indirectly supported his “friend” Erdogan. For example, on May 3, Russian energy giant Gazprom announced that it had allowed Turkey to postpone payments for natural gas until 2024. Such a move can be interpreted as a gift from Putin to his friend Erdogan ahead of the historic election.
Earlier, on April 28, the two leaders attended online a ceremony marking the loading of nuclear fuel into the first generator at the Akkuyu nuclear plant in southern Türkiye, built by Russia's Rosatom nuclear corporation. As the Turkish opposition is said to be opposed to the construction of the plant, Mr. Erdogan stated that if his opponent comes to power, power outages will become the norm.
Current President Erdogan is considered one of the most powerful leaders of Türkiye today. Having served as Prime Minister from 2003-2014 and since 2014 as President, it is undeniable that under his leadership, Türkiye has had a relatively large influence internationally and regionally.
Having led the economy through a period of steady growth, President Recep Erdogan has also been internationally hailed as a reformer. The country’s middle class has expanded and millions have been lifted out of poverty as he has prioritized massive infrastructure projects to modernize Türkiye.
However, this election took place in the context of Türkiye's poor economic situation, facing many difficulties due to a crisis in living standards, but many voters believe that President Erdogan can handle the situation well.
As for the Turks who turned their backs on Mr. Erdogan, it was largely due to economic difficulties when inflation reached 85% in October 2022 and the collapse of the local currency (Lira).
In addition, along with the prolonged economic crisis and hyperinflation that have been challenging Turkey for the past few years, the horrific earthquake that occurred on February 6, killing nearly 50,000 people and injuring hundreds of thousands, is considered a factor that has upset the political situation of this NATO member country.
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