Gasoline prices are expected to continue to decrease in the operating period tomorrow, October 24, 2024

Domestic gasoline prices tomorrow (October 24) are expected to decrease for the second consecutive time following world prices.

Tomorrow (October 24) is the retail price management period. gasoline according to Decree 80/2023/ND-CP amending and supplementing a number of articles of Decree 95/2021/ND-CP and Decree 83/2014/ND-CP of the Government on petroleum trading.

Domestic gasoline prices tomorrow (October 24) are forecast to decrease for the second consecutive time following world prices. (Illustration photo, source: haiquanonline.com.vn)

According to data from Oilprice, at 8:52 a.m. on October 23 (Vietnam time), Brent oil price was at 75.74 USD/barrel, down 0.39%; WTI oil price was at 72.09 USD/barrel, down 2.17% compared to the previous session.

On October 22, the price of imported gasoline in the Singapore market was traded at 84.73 USD/barrel for RON 95 gasoline, down slightly by 0.25 USD/barrel compared to last week; RON 92 gasoline was at 79.06 USD/barrel, down more than 1 USD/barrel. Therefore, domestic gasoline prices are likely to decrease slightly during this adjustment period.

In the world market, the increasing tension in the Middle East has strongly affected the price of oil. In particular, the risk that Israel may retaliate against Iran has increased concerns about supply disruption from this region.

Based on the developments in world oil prices, some oil businesses believe that domestic gasoline prices may be slightly adjusted down in the next adjustment period, October 24. If the management agency does not affect the Oil Price Stabilization Fund, domestic gasoline prices may decrease by 70-120 VND/liter. Diesel prices may decrease by 330-380 VND/liter.

In case the regulatory agency draws from the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund, gasoline prices may decrease less or remain the same. If the above forecast is correct, domestic gasoline prices will have a second consecutive decrease.

In another development, the Machine Learning-based gasoline price forecasting model of the Vietnam Petroleum Institute (VPI) said that in the operating period on October 24, it is forecasted that retail gasoline prices in the upcoming operating period may decrease by 1.2%, bringing the price of E5 RON 92 gasoline to VND 19,500/liter, and RON 95-III gasoline to VND 20,714/liter.

VPI's model predicts that this period, oil prices are expected to decrease slightly from 1.8 - 3.1%; in which diesel oil will decrease the most by about 3.1%, equivalent to 562 VND to 17,758 VND/liter. Next, fuel oil may decrease by 2% to 15,776 VND/kg, while kerosene may decrease by 1.8% to 18,286 VND/liter.

VPI forecasts that the Ministry of Finance and Industry and Trade will continue not to set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund this time.

In the most recent management period (October 17), the prices of all types of gasoline and oil were jointly regulated by the ministries. Industry and Trade - Financial adjustment down.

Specifically, the regulatory agency decided to reduce the price of E5 RON 92 gasoline by VND110 per liter to VND19,730 per liter; RON 95 gasoline by VND100 per liter to VND20,960 per liter. Similarly, the price of diesel oil decreased by VND180 per liter to VND18,320 per liter; kerosene decreased by VND170 per liter to VND18,620 per liter. Fuel oil increased by VND180 per kilogram to VND16,090 per kilogram.

Currently, the room for the petroleum price stabilization fund of some key enterprises is still recording a large positive level because in many recent management periods, the fund has not been used. The fund balance as of the end of the second quarter was VND 6,061 billion, down VND 18 billion compared to the previous quarter and the fifth consecutive quarter of decrease. Compared to the end of 2023, the fund balance decreased by nearly VND 600 billion.

Of which, the fund balance at the Vietnam National Petroleum Group (Petrolimex) - the enterprise holding half of the domestic petroleum retail market share - accounts for more than half, at nearly VND3,079 billion.

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