Gasoline prices are expected to decrease in the operating period tomorrow, February 22, 2024

In the world market, oil prices last week recorded the second consecutive week of increase with Brent oil increasing more than 1% and WTI oil increasing about 3%. In the previous week, world oil prices increased by more than 6%. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to be a factor supporting the increase in oil prices.

Gasoline prices at tomorrow's adjustment period (February 22) are forecast to decrease following world trends.

However, this week, world oil prices have shown a cooling trend. According to data from Oilprice, at 7:44 a.m. on February 21 (Vietnam time), Brent oil was trading at $82.34 per barrel, down $1.22, or 1.46%, from the previous session. WTI oil was trading at $78.18 per barrel, down $1.01, or 1.28%, from the previous session.

In addition, oil prices fell as the International Energy Agency (IEA) released a report predicting that oil demand this year will fall to 1.22 million barrels per day, about half the growth rate in 2023, lower than the previous forecast of 1.24 million barrels per day.

In addition, a larger-than-expected increase in US producer prices in January raised concerns about inflation and the appreciation of the US dollar also negatively impacted oil prices.

In the domestic market, according to leaders of some petroleum trading enterprises, last week, the average price of finished gasoline in the Singapore market tended to decrease compared to the previous period. The adjustment was not too large.

Based on world price developments, businesses forecast that in the operating period on February 22, domestic E5 RON 92 gasoline prices may decrease by VND400-500/liter, RON 95 gasoline may decrease by VND300-400/liter. Similarly, diesel is forecast to decrease by VND350-450/liter.

If the forecast is correct, domestic gasoline prices will have their second price reduction since the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, if the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Ministry of Finance draw from the stabilization fund, gasoline prices may decrease less, or even not at all.

In another development, the Machine Learning-based gasoline price forecasting model of the Vietnam Petroleum Institute (VPI) shows that in the operating period tomorrow, February 22, except for fuel oil, retail prices of other types of gasoline may decrease by 1.4 - 2.1% and the Ministry of Finance - Industry and Trade may set aside the Gasoline Price Stabilization Fund for fuel oil.

The gasoline price forecasting model applying the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model and the supervised learning algorithm in Machine Learning of VPI predicts that the retail gasoline price in the operating period on February 22 may decrease by 343 - 395 VND, bringing the gasoline price to 22,435 VND/liter (E5 RON 92) and 23,567 VND/liter (RON 95).

In the most recent petrol price adjustment (February 15), petrol prices were adjusted up across the board. Of which, the price of RON 95 petrol increased sharply, reaching nearly VND24,000/liter.

Specifically, the price of E5 gasoline increased by 710 VND/liter, the selling price is 22,830 VND/liter. The price of RON95 gasoline increased by 650 VND/liter, the selling price is 23,910 VND/liter.

Diesel price increased by 660 VND/liter, selling price is 21,360 VND/liter. Kerosene price increased by 640 VND/liter, selling price is 21,220 VND/liter.

In this management period, the Ministry of Finance - Ministry of Industry and Trade only allocated 300 VND/kg for fuel oil to the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund. The management agency did not allocate nor spend the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund for all other types of petroleum.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/gia-xang-dau-du-bao-giam-trong-ky-dieu-hanh-ngay-mai-2222024-304498.html