Gold price "bubble" has not formed yet
Early this afternoon, April 8, the price of SJC gold bars surpassed 82 million VND/tael. Saigon Jewelry Company (SJC) bought at 80.1 million VND/tael and sold at 82.1 million VND/tael. Bao Tin Minh Chau Company bought at 79.9 million VND/tael and sold at 81.9 million VND/tael...
Compared to the beginning of 2024, the price of SJC gold bars has increased by more than 7 million VND/tael, equivalent to an increase of 7.4%. Compared to the beginning of 2020, the price of SJC gold bars has increased by 38 million VND/tael, equivalent to an increase of more than 88.6%.
It is forecasted that in the coming time, domestic gold prices will continue to increase following the increase in world gold prices.
After soaring on the morning of April 8, the price of gold rings dropped by about 200,000 - 250,000 VND per tael in the early afternoon.
Doji Group bought Hung Thinh Vuong gold rings at 73.75 million VND/tael and sold at 75.2 million VND/tael. Bao Tin Minh Chau Company bought at 73.78 million VND/tael and sold at 75.18 million VND/tael...
The selling price of over 75 million VND/tael is also a record number for gold rings up to now. Compared to the beginning of the year, the price of gold rings has increased by 11 - 11.5 million VND/tael.
Meanwhile, the international gold price is at a historic high of 2,346 USD/ounce, up 300 USD/ounce compared to the beginning of the year, equivalent to an increase of 14.6%.
Gold price update on April 8: Gold rings 'shockingly' increased to nearly 75.5 million VND/tael
With the world gold price as well as the domestic gold ring price increasing sharply every day, there are concerns about a gold price "bubble". However, financial and banking expert Nguyen Tri Hieu said that at present, there is no sign of a gold price "bubble".
"In the world gold market, no one has predicted a gold price bubble, demand is still very high. In the country, whether there is a bubble or not is also very difficult to determine. Gold is not an asset that is prone to bubbles because it is an asset with real value. At present, supply is not enough to meet demand, so demand is real demand," Mr. Hieu commented.
Talking to Thanh Nien this afternoon, April 8, economic expert Ngo Tri Long analyzed: "Bubble means that the price does not reflect the reality. For example, a real estate bubble is when the actual price according to demand is only 10 million VND/ m2 but is pushed up to 15 million VND/ m2 . Saying that a gold price bubble has formed in the domestic market at this time is baseless, because the gold price is actually increasing according to market supply and demand and according to the world gold price."
"Need to establish a gold trading floor as soon as possible"
According to Mr. Hieu, the current economic and political situation in the world has many very unusual points. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is very hesitant in deciding whether to reduce interest rates or not. Reducing interest rates is good for the economy but can cause inflation to flare up. The more the Fed hesitates, the more volatile the financial, stock and gold markets will be.
Mr. Hieu predicts that by the end of this year, the world gold price may increase to 3,000 USD/ounce, causing the domestic gold ring price to reach 80 million VND/tael.
"In the coming time, when domestic gold prices continue to increase following world gold prices, it will affect the entire macro economy. Seeing gold prices skyrocketing, people will fear rising inflation, which will lead to a phenomenon of following the flow of water, and prices of goods may also be adjusted to increase," the expert expressed concern.
Expert Ngo Tri Long also acknowledged that from now until the end of the year, gold prices will continue to stay high. Previously, forecasts said that the world gold price in 2024 would increase to 2,400 USD/ounce, but now the forecasts have changed, giving the peak figure of this year's gold price at around 2,600 USD/ounce.
Finance and banking expert Nguyen Tri Hieu
"The price of gold depends largely on the health and inflation rate of the world economy. If the world gold price continues to increase, the domestic gold price will increase as well. The worrying issue in the context of the relatively large gap between the domestic gold price and the world gold price is that it may increase gold smuggling, foreign currency loss and tax loss," said Mr. Long.
Sharing the same view, Mr. Hieu also emphasized: "The domestic gold price, especially the ring gold price, is increasing; meanwhile, the large gap between the domestic gold price and the world gold price will encourage gold smuggling, causing large foreign currency losses. Besides, the exchange rate is also affected and unstable. This is something that needs to be paid close attention to in the coming time."
According to this financial and banking expert, to stabilize the gold market, in addition to amending Decree 24 on gold trading to remove the monopoly on SJC gold bars, "it is necessary to establish a gold trading floor as soon as possible". At that time, the problem of gold speculation will be greatly reduced, "cooling down" the gold market.
Gold fluctuations on April 8: Price reduction trap lurking in gold price
"The State Bank should consider issuing gold certificates to withdraw about 400 tons of gold from people's safes. Doing this will help the gold market cool down quickly," Mr. Hieu expressed his opinion.
Referring to the story of balancing supply and demand and stabilizing the gold market, economic expert Ngo Tri Long said, Abolishing monopoly is just one factor, at the same time, we must synchronize solutions. "We must shift from trading gold bars to trading other gold products such as gold certificates, derivatives... on a centralized trading center," said Mr. Long.
Some economic experts also emphasized the need to soon allow commodity exchanges to trade gold futures through standard futures contracts like other advanced countries. Participating members must meet strict standards and be allowed to import and export gold...
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