A week of struggle

During the week of June 17-21, the stock market recorded a tug-of-war and the VN-Index fluctuated within a fairly narrow range, with reduced liquidity. Investors are waiting for stronger supporting factors for stocks, although there is currently a lack of attractive investment channels.

Over the past week, the world gold price has recorded many sessions of decline. Domestic SJC gold bars sold by the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to the people through 4 state-owned commercial banks remained stable at 76.98 million VND/tael.

Trading in the domestic gold market has been quite quiet recently, with few buyers and sellers, and little price fluctuation. The world gold price is under pressure to decrease in the short term as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to delay cutting interest rates, waiting for clearer signs of weakness in the US economy and for inflation to cool down further, towards the threshold of 2%/year.

Savings channels are considered a good choice. Interest rates have been continuously adjusted up by banks recently, although they are still low compared to a few years ago. Most banks mobilize around 5%/year for 12-month terms and from 5.5-6%/year for 24-month terms.

With the interest rate of mobilization rising, money can flow into the banking channel. According to the latest data released by the State Bank of Vietnam on June 21, the amount of deposits of residents at credit institutions continued to reach a record in March 2024, with nearly 6.68 million billion VND, up 2.2% compared to the end of 2023. This is also the time when many banks are preparing to increase interest rates after a year of continuous interest rate reduction.

The real estate market does not show many positive signs of transactions as apartment prices in many big cities have increased sharply, land prices in the suburbs of big cities have also increased, while transactions in remote areas have not been many.

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Cash flow is quite cautious when entering the stock market. Photo: VNSC

Normally, when most investment channels are gloomy, especially low interest rates, the stock market will attract cash flow. However, strong selling pressure from foreign investors and the return of caution from domestic investors have caused stock prices to increase slowly.

During the week of June 17-21, the VN-Index traded sideways. The market fell slightly by more than 5 points in the first session of the week (June 17), recovered by more than 4 points in the session of June 18, then increased by less than 1 point in the session of June 19. During the two sessions of June 20-21, the index moved sideways.

Money flowed into some stocks with “stories” such as Hoa Phat Group (HPG) of billionaire Tran Dinh Long, Ton Hoa Sen (HSG) of tycoon Le Phuoc Vu, and NKG (Nam Kim Steel)… after investors received information that Vietnam began investigating dumping of galvanized steel imported from China and South Korea.

Money then poured into POW shares of PetroVietnam Power Corporation, which have risen 42% since April on rising electricity demand and investor expectations for the prospects of Nhon Trach 3 and 4 power plants. Rubber stocks have also surged as rubber prices have risen.

VPBank (VPB) also gained points thanks to the recovery of the retail sector, while Mr. Ho Hung Anh's Techcombank (TCB) attracted cash flow after the news of increasing charter capital through issuing shares at a ratio of 1:1. FPT shares continued to make their mark thanks to the AI ​​trend.

For the whole week, VN-Index increased by 0.2% to 1,282 points, HNX-Index increased by 0.2% to 244.4 points and UPCOM increased by 2.6% to 100.6 points. The stocks with the strongest increase included: Vietnam Airlines (HVN), VPBank, FPT... On the contrary, BIDV, Vietcombank, Vincom Retail (VRE) decreased sharply.

Liquidity this week decreased by 4.9%, down to VND23,326 billion/session. Foreign investors continued to net sell VND4,883 billion on all 3 exchanges this week.

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It can be seen that cash flow into the stock market is still quite cautious despite the lack of attractive investment channels.

Cash flow is forecast to continue flowing into bank deposits as interest rates continue to rise, albeit not significantly. A more stable USD/VND exchange rate will also help organizations and individuals choose to deposit money in credit institutions.

However, the stock market is expected to attract money with some supporting information, including the second quarter business results of enterprises.

In the medium and long term, the real estate channel may become more attractive and attract more money when the Land Law and Housing Law come into effect. These laws will help to unlock land resources and stimulate other resources to coexist with land, promoting development.

Regarding stocks, the market is said to be in the accumulation phase and waiting for strong enough information to support a breakout. VN-Index has been accumulating all week but is still clinging to the 1,280+/- point area. There will likely be a more positive trading session in the new week so that VN-Index can fluctuate once again in the 1,290-1,300 point area.

According to Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh, Head of Market Strategy Department, VnDirect Securities Analysis Division, the market fluctuated last week as investors remained cautious before the derivatives expiration session and the restructuring moves of ETF funds.

Entering the new trading week, market attention will turn to important macro data to be released, including: US personal consumption expenditure (PCE), the Fed's preferred inflation measure, and Vietnam's second quarter GDP growth and June CPI figures.

In addition, according to VNDirect experts, the story of second quarter business results will also gradually be mentioned when some enterprises begin to announce estimated figures. Overall, the picture of second quarter business results will still be positive and will be an important supporting factor for the market.

VNDirect experts expect the VN-Index to continue to accumulate around 1,280 points before gathering enough momentum to conquer the resistance level of 1,300 points in early Q3.

Gold prices skyrocket, exchange rates hit new highs, stocks plummet 60 points The stock market plummeted, losing 60 points in one session. Investors sold off amid soaring gold prices and new highs in exchange rates. The international financial market was shaken.