| Vietnamese rice prices continue to increase, widening the gap with Thailand and Pakistan. World rice prices rebound by 15 USD/ton after falling |
Vietnamese rice goes against the trend, returning to historical level
According to the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), rice prices from world sources continued to be adjusted in the trading session on October 20. Of which, Thai rice continued to decrease by another 3-4 USD/ton while Vietnamese rice “went in the opposite direction” and increased by another 5 USD/ton.
Specifically, the prices of both 5% and 25% broken rice from Vietnam increased by 5 USD/ton. The adjusted prices are 643 USD/ton for 5% broken rice and 628 USD/ton for 25% broken rice, respectively.
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| Vietnam rice price now returns to 643 USD/ton |
Meanwhile, Thai rice decreased by 3 USD/ton for 5% broken rice, down to 570 USD/ton; 25% broken rice decreased by 4 USD/ton, down to 524 USD/ton. Previously, in the trading session on October 19, Thai rice was adjusted down by 5 USD/ton for both types of rice.
Pakistani rice alone remains at $563/ton for 5% broken rice and $483/ton for 25% broken rice.
Thus, after fluctuations since the beginning of October, the export price of 5% broken rice from Vietnam has returned to the historical milestone of the end of August 2023 and continues to hold the top position in the world when it is far ahead of the same quality rice from Thailand by 73 USD/ton and Pakistan by 80 USD/ton. In particular, Vietnam's 25% broken rice is currently far ahead of its competitor Thailand by 104 USD/ton and ahead of Pakistan by 145 USD/ton.
World prices will remain high, sellers take the initiative
The increase in Vietnamese rice prices is explained by experts and businesses in the industry as being due to increased demand in the world market, while Thai rice prices are decreasing because the country's currency is losing value compared to the USD.
In addition, Thailand's interest rate is also half lower than the USD. The unfavorable financial market has pushed down commodity prices. This has created a reversal in the price of Vietnamese and Thai rice; while the global demand for rice products is still increasing.
Accordingly, major importing countries such as the Philippines, Indonesia, China, the Middle East and African countries currently have very large demands. For example, the Philippines is actively increasing rice imports, preparing rice reserves to cope with El Nino and high inflation. On average, this country imports over 3 million tons of rice each year.
Or like Indonesia, at the beginning of this year, planned to import 2 million tons of rice, but recently set the import target to 2.4 - 2.5 million tons.
Another market, the Middle East, has been suspended since India banned white rice exports, but stocks in the region are running low and will return to the market around October 2023…
Another factor that makes Vietnamese rice prices so high today, according to Mr. Nguyen Van Thanh - Director of Phuoc Thanh IV Company - is that other countries are adjusting their prices down because they are in the harvest season while they have large inventories, thereby reducing prices sharply to compete. As for Vietnam, due to the limited supply and the domestic price continuously increasing in recent days, businesses have to offer higher prices.
Regarding the upcoming rice price, businesses forecast that the current economic and political situation is still complicated, climate change is still becoming increasingly severe globally, so the shortage of food in many countries is very large. From there, Mr. Pham Thai Binh, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Trung An High-Tech Agriculture Joint Stock Company, forecasts that in the last months of 2023 and the whole year of 2024, rice prices will remain high. For the standard product of 5% broken rice, the price is from 640 - 660 USD/ton due to the import demand of many countries that do not have the conditions to produce rice.
Although rice prices are high, the Vietnam Food Association (VFA) believes that businesses should still be cautious when signing contracts. Because the initiative is now in the hands of the seller and businesses should prepare their goods in advance before signing to avoid risks.
| High export rice prices have had a positive impact on the domestic rice market. Accordingly, domestic rice prices have been continuously adjusted upward this week. Rice varieties have been adjusted up by 300-500 VND/kg; raw rice and finished rice have also increased by about 1,000 VND/kg. |
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