In the second half of September 2023, export rice prices from Asian suppliers continued to make strong adjustments, falling below 600 USD/ton, while Vietnamese rice remained stable at 613-617 USD/ton for 5% broken rice.
At this level, Vietnam's rice continues to be 23 USD higher than Thailand's (590 USD/ton) and 15 USD/ton higher than Pakistan's (598 USD/ton).
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| Vietnam's rice export price is currently higher than that of countries like Thailand and Pakistan. |
The reason why Vietnam's rice prices are far above its competitors is that Vietnam has not yet reached the peak harvest season for the Autumn-Winter rice crop. In addition, the amount of commercial rice and the ability to export from now until the end of the year is not much, only about 1 million tons. Meanwhile, countries such as Thailand, Myanmar, Pakistan and especially India are preparing to enter the peak harvest of the main rice crop of the year. Therefore, in these countries, production is abundant and prices have slightly decreased.
Regarding the price of rice in the coming time, opinions say that it is very difficult to make an accurate prediction because the world rice market depends on many factors. "In October 2023 - when the Indian crop is harvested and the Indian Government sells goods to import new crops, the price of world rice may continue to decrease. If the Indian Government continues to maintain the current ban, the price of rice will still be maintained" - Mr. Dinh Minh Tam, Director of Co May Company Limited commented.
In fact, rice consumption demand continues to be high in major importing countries. Specifically, in the Philippines, as of September 15, the Philippines imported only about 2.4 million tons of rice while the US Department of Agriculture forecasts that the country's rice import volume for the whole year will reach 3.5 million tons.
Along with the Philippines, Indonesia is also looking for rice supplies for its national food security goals and maintaining its reserves. Recently, the head of the Indonesian National Food Agency (Bapanas) Arief Prasetyo Adi said that the country's President, Joko Widodo (Jokowi), has directed the import of 1 million tons of rice from China to increase the government's rice reserve (CBP) for 2024.
In addition, although Malaysia is a rice producing country, it still needs to import up to 30% to ensure domestic consumption and reserve requirements. Specifically, according to the press, in Malaysia, domestic white rice is a controlled commodity with a price ceiling of 26 ringgit (5.54 USD) per 10 kg. However, the rice production industry can only meet 70% of demand. Therefore, the country imports white rice mainly from India, Pakistan, Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia.
The increasing demand for rice in many countries is expected by businesses to make the market more vibrant in the last months of the year. This will be an opportunity for Vietnam's rice industry to take advantage of.
Regarding rice output, according to the General Statistics Office, the whole year of 2023, rice output will reach 43-43.4 million tons, an increase of about 650-700 thousand tons compared to 2022, exceeding 170 thousand tons compared to the plan of the rural agriculture sector in 2023. According to the General Statistics Office's estimate, it is possible to achieve 7.5 million tons of rice for export in 2023 while still ensuring domestic food security.
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