From the end of last year to mid-February, domestic rice prices and export rice prices have continuously decreased, marking a reversal after the previous period of rapid increase.
According to the Vietnam Food Association, the export price of 5% broken rice from Vietnam is currently below 400 USD/ton, the lowest level among the world's leading exporting countries.
The Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV) commented that the world rice market has just gone through a period of slow trading compared to the annual cycle. The reversal of domestic rice prices and export rice prices from the end of 2024 is considered to be due to oversupply in the market.
While major importing countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines are suspending, reducing, or delaying purchases to monitor price developments, rice output from major producing and exporting countries, especially India, is increasing sharply.
According to the latest report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), global rice production in the 2024-2025 crop year is forecast to reach a record 532.66 million tons, nearly 10 million tons higher than the previous crop year.
Of which, the rice output of the four rice-providing countries in the world, India, Vietnam, Thailand and Pakistan, all increased compared to the previous crop year. India's output alone reached 145 million tons, an increase of 7.2 million tons compared to the previous year, causing the world's supply to become surplus. This caused rice prices to continuously plummet and lose the "golden age".
Not only has supply surged, but import demand has also weakened markedly. As the rice shortage caused by India’s ban ended, many traditional Vietnamese customers delayed purchases in the expectation that prices would fall further.
However, after about 2 months of sharp decline in domestic rice prices, the upward trend has returned. In the trading session this morning, February 18, in the Mekong Delta region, rice prices increased slightly by 100 - 200 VND/kg.
According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange, Vietnamese rice has long held an important position on the global export map. When major customers return, the price of Vietnamese rice is likely to recover strongly.
The world's largest rice import market in 2025 will still be the Philippines. This is also Vietnam's main customer. On average, this market has to import up to 350,000 tons of rice per month to meet domestic consumption needs. Although the Philippines is trying to diversify its supply from Thailand, Cambodia and India, the Vietnamese market still plays an important role. Another important market is China. According to experts, China's rice supply comes from Thailand and Vietnam, not India.
With the above developments, the export price of rice is forecast to increase again soon. Although not as high as last year, it will be at least in the range of 435 - 450 USD/ton for the popular 5% broken rice. The fragrant, high-quality, and specialty rice will still be consumed well.
According to PV/VTV
Source: https://doanhnghiepvn.vn/kinh-te/gia-gao-xuat-khau-du-bao-som-tang-tro-lai/20250219073741452
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