From pledging to supply 5,000 helmets to the Ukrainian Army at the start of all-out war between Russia and the Eastern European country, Germany is now supplying Kiev with cutting-edge military technology – and is likely to continue doing so in the new year.
Experts agree: Armed conflicts elsewhere will continue to shape life in Germany in the coming year. Issues of war and peace will increasingly influence political decisions.
Alarm bell
More than a decade ago, the German government made a deliberate decision aimed at eliminating the ability of the German Army (Bundeswehr) to fight a conventional land war in Europe.
In 1990, when the Cold War ended, the then West German Bundeswehr alone could field 215 combat battalions in a state of high readiness. Today, Germany has about 34 battalions, and the word “combat” seems something of a distant memory to them.
The Bundeswehr was in such a low state of combat readiness that when the 10th Tank Division conducted an exercise in late 2022, its entire squadron of 18 deployed Puma infantry fighting vehicles broke down.
The Bundeswehr's decaying state is hampering Germany's ambitions to play a greater role in European security and deter any future aggression.
Leopard 2 A7 main battle tank of the German Army (Bundeswehr). Photo: RT
Political scientist Christian Mölling, head of the Center for Security and Defense at the German Council on Foreign Relations, recently presented a report that sounded alarm bells among Berlin's political elite.
The report argues that, in the worst case scenario, NATO countries have only five years to rearm, otherwise the alliance will no longer have the military strength to confront threats from the East.
Mr. Mölling cited the construction of roads and bridges in Germany as an example. He said that roads and bridges in Germany will have to be upgraded because many existing structures were not designed to withstand the weight of tanks and other heavy military equipment.
“A comprehensive defense policy requires, in particular, that civil and social infrastructure be resilient enough to withstand war,” Mölling said. That could make military sense for a city plan for a new road bridge, especially if it would play a strategic role in a war situation.
The expert sees opportunity in the upcoming effort. He argues that, to restore its overall defense capabilities, Germany must “suspend certain regulations for a while. In the report, we described it as: Invest more, regulate less.”
Must prepare now
However, people in Germany are having a hard time coming to terms with the new reality. It has been almost two years since Chancellor Olaf Scholz delivered his “Zeitenwende” (turning point) speech to the German parliament, stressing that Germany’s military policy and defense capabilities would once again be a top priority.
But when asked where Germany should cut spending at a time when the state coffers are almost empty, 54% of Germans polled by public broadcaster ARD answered cutting aid to Ukraine.
Meanwhile, another poll, conducted by public broadcaster ZDF, showed that more than 70% of respondents thought Ukraine should continue to receive weapons, or even larger quantities of military equipment.
This contradiction is reflected in German government policy, Mölling said. “Many people, especially in Germany, do not understand that when it comes to defense, you cannot simply push a button and have a tank roll off the assembly line the next day,” he said.
“It took a long time for these production capacities to be built. The German government and many governments across Europe have not yet caught the signal that this is the turning point of an era and started producing more defense,” said Mölling. “Not because Ukraine needs it, but because we need it.”
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visits Cologne-Wahn military airport, in Cologne, Germany, October 23, 2023. Photo: Euronews
These realities become even more urgent as Europe considers the scenario of Donald Trump returning to the White House after the 2024 US presidential election. Many on the other side of the Atlantic are concerned that if this scenario occurs, the US will most likely withdraw from NATO altogether.
“We have to prepare now” rather than wait until it happens, Moritz Schularick, director of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), told DW. The think tank is the author of the Ukraine Support Tracker, a tool that tracks international financial and military aid to Ukraine.
The most recent update of the Ukraine Support Tracker shows that Berlin is now the second-largest arms supplier to Kiev after Washington. However, Germany’s military production capacity has not increased significantly, as Mr. Mölling pointed out.
“We are just filling in the gaps. We have not started building the production capacity needed to meet the deadlines that were set out in the report,” he said .
Minh Duc (According to DW, Foreign Policy)
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