Stocks soar
In the trading session on October 16, PVS shares of Vietnam Oil and Gas Technical Services Corporation (PTSC) increased by more than 2%, reaching a new historical peak of VND40,700/share. PTSC's capitalization increased by about 30% in the past 2 months and nearly doubled in the past year, reaching nearly VND20,000 billion.
This enterprise won bids for many large projects, including the contract to supply an offshore transformer station for the Fengmiao offshore wind power project of Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners.
PTSC is known as one of the few enterprises in the field of M&C construction of renewable energy in the region. PTSC has contracts with enough work volume for the next 3-4 years, with projects such as Hai Long 2&3, Greater Changhua and Baltica 2...
Domestically, PTSC also won the EPCI 1 package worth 1.08 billion USD, belonging to the Block B - O Mon super project.
PVD shares of PetroVietnam Drilling and Well Services Corporation (PV Drilling) also increased by more than 1.9% to VND29,000/share (session October 16), the highest level in nearly 10 years.
In a forecast, Dragon Capital Securities (VDSC) estimated that PV Drilling's Q3/2023 profit could increase sharply compared to the same period last year (the same period lost VND34 billion) thanks to continuing to record the remaining part of Valeura's contract compensation, equivalent to VND70 billion. Profit is expected to reach VND160 billion, equal to Q2/2023.
VDSC forecasts that PV Drilling can maintain high rig rental prices until 2024 and the number of rig operating days will also be higher.
PVT shares of PetroVietnam Transportation Corporation increased impressively for the fourth consecutive session, reaching a historical high price of VND30,100/share (adjusted price).
Many other oil and gas stocks increased such as GAS, BSR, PVB, OIL, PLX, PVC...
Oil and gas-related stocks continued to climb and are all around one-year or historical peaks amid rising crude oil prices and are around one-year highs.
According to Mirae Asset, the amended Petroleum Law, effective from July 1, 2023, creates major turning points for the oil and gas industry, helping to remove bottlenecks in upstream activities, when natural reserves are gradually decreasing over time.
Meanwhile, the mega project Block B - O Mon brought positive supporting information. This is a project combining upstream gas fields, midstream pipelines and downstream power plants, with a total investment of tens of billions of USD.
SSI Securities believes that the businesses that benefit the most from this super project include: PVS (building the central processing platform, living area, floating warehouse), PVB (providing coatings for the project), PVD (oil wells), GAS (purchasing billions of cubic meters of gas from the project, participating in the pipeline system)...
VNDirect also assessed that the Block B - O Mon project will be the main growth driver for the oil and gas industry in the coming time.
Boost from world crude oil prices and the mega project Lot B - O Mon
According to MBS Securities, oil and gas stocks will have bright prospects in 2024 thanks to the support of rising Brent oil prices and information on progress in the Block B - O Mon mega project.
Oil prices are expected to remain high amid tight supply and recovering demand. Brent crude oil prices increased by 10.5% quarter-on-quarter to an average of $85.90 per barrel in the third quarter of 2023, due to tight supply and gradually recovering demand. Oil prices have recently increased again amid news of the Israel-Hamas conflict.
World crude oil prices are an important factor affecting the business results of oil and gas enterprises. However, world crude oil prices may not increase too strongly.
According to MBS, global oil demand has recovered quite well but in reality, it is not as high as expected. According to data from Bloomberg, in the first 9 months of 2023, global demand for crude oil and fuel reached an average of 100.7 million barrels/day, up 1.7% compared to the relatively low base level of the same period in 2022.
Bloomberg forecasts average global demand in 2023-2024 to reach 101 million barrels/day and 102.34 million barrels/day, respectively.
China’s crude oil demand growth will be one of the major factors influencing global crude oil demand in 2023-2024. The country’s gradual reopening from early 2023 will drive capacity increases at some refineries such as Shenghong and PetroChina Jieyang, thereby boosting China’s crude oil demand.
However, in late September 2023, concerns about crude oil demand in China resurfaced as the financial crisis of Evergrande Real Estate Group worsened, leading to concerns about the recovery of the real estate industry in particular and the economy in general in this country.
Overall, China will continue to grow crude oil demand in the last quarter of 2023 and 2024, but the growth rate in 2024 may be slower due to the impact of the economic recovery.
MBS experts expect the world Brent crude oil price to average $93/barrel in the fourth quarter of 2023 and reach $92/barrel in 2024.
History shows that the prices of domestic oil and gas stocks mostly fluctuate in phase and are quite correlated with fluctuations in world crude oil prices.
Based on the positive outlook for oil prices in the coming time, oil and gas industry stock prices are also expected to have bright prospects in 2024.
Source
Comment (0)