What prevents Russia from mass producing Il-96-400M aircraft?

News of the first flight of the new Il-96-400M aircraft makes Russians dream of the brighter days of the past.

Witnessing the successful flight, Mr. Chemezov, General Director of Rostec (Russia's Corporation for Development, Production and Export of High-Tech Products), excitedly declared that the Russian aviation industry has everything necessary to design and build wide-body long-haul passenger aircraft.

The head of Rostec believes that the creation of such aircraft will ensure the country's technological sovereignty. Boeing and Airbus will no longer be monopolists. But the appearance of hundreds of Il-96-400M in the Russian sky is too early. There are many reasons for concern.

In fact, the technology to build such aircraft has existed for a long time, in the Soviet era, when the Il-86 was born in the 70s of the last century, then the Il-96, the Il-96-300 version in 1988 and now the Il-96-400M.

So, the foundation was laid 50 years ago, and it has not disappeared yet. Of course, one can talk about breakthroughs and victories, but in fact, the Il-96-400M is just a modified Il-96-300, flying since 1988.

Điều gì cản trở Nga sản xuất máy bay Il-96-400M hàng loạt?

Breakthrough?

Over the past 30 years, the aircraft industry has developed, a lot of work has been done to modernize the Il-96-300 into the Il-96-400, in particular, replacing almost all 20th century avionics with modern ones. But what is Russia's main headache? First of all, the engines.

The engine that gives this plane its maximum range is declared by Rostec to be 8,100 km. But this is still the PS-90A, which appeared in the 70s of the last century.

The PS-90A is the engine of the Il-96-300, Il-96-400, Tu-204, Tu-214. Development began in 1979, testing in 1983, the first flight of the Il-96-300 took place in 1988, and certification was granted in 1992. This old engine type has performed very well for Russian aviation in the 90s.

There was an interesting version, the PS-90A2, using Pratt & Whitney technology, but the United States later imposed restrictions on engine exports, thus canceling a contract to supply Russia's Tu 204SM to Iran.

The PS-90A-3 is a replacement for the imported PS-90A-2 engine, certified in 2011, with a capacity of 16,000 kgf and the ability to fly beyond Russian territory. It is a four-engine design, unlike today's modern giant and fuel-efficient twin-engine aircraft.

This engine has stood the test of time. With the Il-86 as its origin, hundreds of aircraft have flown countless kilometers but with only one accident that took the lives of 14 people. The other four accidents were completely not the fault of the aircraft, of which 2 were due to crew error, 1 was due to a terrorist bomb in the cabin of the aircraft and 1 was due to a collision with a Boeing aircraft at the airport in New Delhi.

However, even Mr. Chemezov believes that with the PS-90A, the Il-96-400M has no chance of becoming an effective aircraft for the commercial air transport market. In fact, economic characteristics have never been a highlight of aircraft engines since the Soviet era. This situation can be remedied by the PD-35, but the engine developed since 2016 can only appear on the market after 2030.

It is not that Russia is completely uninterested in commercial aircraft production, as it conducted an unsuccessful joint venture project with China on the wide-body CR-929 aircraft from 2014 to 2022. Meanwhile, China is developing its own passenger aircraft.

The presence of the Il-96-400 is a good solution. They can operate both domestic and international routes, carrying up to 400 passengers or cargo with a range of 8,000 km.

Despite its economic inefficiency, the Il generation has one feature that is highly valued by Russia. Some experts believe that abandoning the mechanical control system and switching to a digital control system will significantly lighten the design and reduce fuel consumption for the IL-96, but on the other hand, the mechanical system has the highest reliability, ensuring flight even if all electronics are completely disrupted.

That is why the IL-96 had a reason to develop. Here we can recall an Il-96 project with Pratt and Whitney engines that was certified in the United States. However, after realizing the prospects of this aircraft in the American transport market, Boeing and their partners began to sink this version together. And as a result, the project was cut short, the Russian aircraft lost its American engines.

In theory, the Il-96-400M is needed not only in a situation where the MS-21 and Sukhoi Superjet do not meet expectations in the field of long-haul transportation.

In general, the Il-96 with its 270-ton structure can become a savior for Russian airlines. This aircraft is practically completely Russian, that is, all imported equipment is replaced by domestic production. This is a continuation of the IL-86 series, but at a modern level. Not pretentious, but reliable and also very convenient. If the Il-96 carries the name “Russia” and flies around the world, it means that the navigation system and the level of safety comply with all international requirements.

But according to Mr. Chemezov, the Il-96-400M is unlikely to appear soon on the passenger aviation market of airlines. This aircraft will first be produced according to the orders of VIPs or as a transport aircraft to transport goods. That is, currently the IL-96-400M has no potential airline to order.

The only complete one currently in production will be used as a model, and testing will continue until completion. As everyone knows, the Il-96 has a huge drawback from the Soviet era: its high fuel consumption, which is not worth using from an economic point of view.

One, two or how many?

The key issue in reducing air transport costs includes not only fuel prices and fuel consumption, but also the speed of spare parts production, aircraft maintenance and repair capabilities.

There is a well-known nuance here: the more planes you fly, the more profit you make. The more planes you produce, the lower their cost. This means that planes need to be mass produced.

Voronezh Aircraft Production Association (VASO)

And here is the second problem. Where and who will ensure mass production of IL-96?

Voronezh Aircraft Production Association (VASO) located in the city of Voronezh is number one. There the IL-86 is assembled, everything necessary is there: production area, warehouse, staff.

Inside the VASO Complex

While the production space is still fortunately available, the situation of the staff is truly sad. With salaries of 16-18 thousand rubles (about more than 200 USD), many workers from engineers to assembly workers have left the factory. To restore production, many recruitment ads have been posted publicly. However, with an average salary of 30,000 rubles (about nearly 400 USD), including design engineers, it is too low, even tragic. Meanwhile, Yandex shippers earn more than aircraft design engineers. VASO simply cannot guarantee any aircraft production with such salaries.

VASO has experience in assembling the Il-96-300, Il-96-400T and assembling the Il-96-400M. These are different machines, differing significantly in shape, size and layout. Therefore, the plant does not particularly consider the Il-96-400M as a new and improved aircraft, but it also appreciates its importance and stature.

Avionics is half the job, the manufacturer has to create a passenger cabin from scratch, and it has not only rows of seats and luggage racks, but also a life-support system for 400 passengers, each of whom must receive 27.5 liters of breathing air per minute on the plane.

Business class seats

Economy class

With this, Russia can still build very good aircraft. But the problem is not modernity or uniqueness, but quantity. Producing 6-10 aircraft per year right now will be impossible.

It would be great if VASO could produce 02 (two) Il-96-400M aircraft per year. This makes no sense for the aviation industry. Even if tomorrow, for example, there is an order for 20 aircraft from Aeroflot, it will be difficult to call the team back to work, because the salaries are simply too low and the trust in previous promises has been shaken many times.

In any case, the Il-96-400M took off normally, without any incidents, which is already a success. But that is only half the story. How to set up mass production of the necessary equipment for domestic companies is still not entirely clear.

After a while, flying on Boeing and Airbus aircraft that have not been properly maintained by the manufacturer will become risky. Replacements are needed, but how to implement this in practice is a question to which the head of Rostec still has no precise answer.

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