Ukraine War 1/28: Russia advances rapidly, rumors spread of Kiev mass withdrawal in Kupyansk

The Russia-Ukraine war is about to enter its third year and is becoming more and more intense (Illustration: Skynews)

Russia breaks through Ukrainian defenses at Kupyansk

The Military Summary channel reported that the Russian army broke through the defenses of the Ukrainian armed forces in the direction of Kupyansk and established control over the village of Tabaivka.

There are reports that Kiev forces have made a large-scale retreat, abandoning positions in Kyslivka and Kotliarivka. If this information is confirmed, the Oskil River will be Ukraine's next line of defense in this direction.

Map of the Ukrainian war in Kupyansk as of January 27. In which Russia controls the brown area, the red arrows show the direction of their attack and the pink area is where Moscow forces have just gained control, the yellow arrows are the direction of Kiev forces' retreat (Photo: Military Summary).

Russia attacks along the Eastern front, Ukrainian army in trouble

The situation on the eastern front is very difficult for the Ukrainian armed forces as the Russian army launched a strong offensive in Marinka, Avdiivka and Bakhmut (Artyomovsk), the RVvoenkory channel reported.

Ukrainian military analysts published a pessimistic analysis and new satellite images of the eastern front, including 3 areas: Marinka, Avdiivka, Bakhmut.

In Marinka, the situation in this area is worrying for Ukraine. Artillery on both sides has reduced the frequency of operations. However, the Russian army is building on previous results, continuing to attack strongly.

At Avdiivka, the Ukrainian artillery situation is better, but the Russian activity is no less. The construction of new Ukrainian fortified areas is underway. It seems that the same tactical pattern as at Bakhmut will be repeated.

If we talk about Avdiivka as a whole, Russian artillery has a multifold advantage. The 2 km2 summer residence area was completely wiped off the face of the earth. However, it can be noted that the density of Ukrainian FPV drones here is very high.

In Bakhmut, the situation is generally similar. Russian troops are advancing towards Kleshchiivka and Bogdanovka. Ukrainian artillery is active but still inferior to Russian.

Map of the Ukrainian war in Bakhmut as of January 27. The red line shows the front line held by Russian troops, while the blue line is the Ukrainian defense line (Photo: RVvoenkory).

Ukrainian Air Force warns of ballistic missile threat from the east

Ukrainska Pravda reported that in the early morning of January 28, the Ukrainian Air Force issued an urgent warning about the ballistic missile threat from the east, as well as the missile threat in the Kharkov and Donetsk regions.

Ukrainian Air Force warns: "There is a threat of using ballistic weapons from the east! Do not ignore the air strike signals!".

In addition, the Ukrainian military also noted that there is a missile threat in the Kharkov and Donetsk regions.

Ukrainian General Staff: Kiev forces repelled 20 attacks in Avdiivka

According to a summary report of the General Staff of Ukraine on the evening of January 28, during the day in the direction of Avdiivka, the defenders repelled 20 enemy attacks. A total of 64 clashes took place on the front. In addition, Russia launched 1 missile attack and 35 attacks from multiple-launch rocket artillery systems on Ukrainian positions, Ukrainska Pravda reported.

The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed that it had repelled Russian attacks in Seversky and Slobozhansky, Kupyansk, Liman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka and Zaporizhia.

Russia did not give up its intention to push Ukrainian units away from the bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnieper River, but their offensive was unsuccessful, the report said.

Telegraph: Russia could win in the next few years

The British newspaper The Telegraph , based on open sources and data analysis, suggests that Russia's transition to a military economy could eventually give it a material advantage in winning the Ukrainian conflict if the West does not have time to produce weapons at the same pace, as Moscow plans to continue hostilities for at least 3-4 years.

One Western official told the Telegraph : "We are now in a situation where Russia is spending 40% of its GDP on this war - more than it spends on health care and education... This is a statistic that the entire West is struggling to catch up with."

Over time, military experts warn, this could give Russia a staggering material advantage in winning the conflict in Ukraine. And while the urgency is growing, it seems Western governments are simply failing to keep up.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu - in his December 2023 report to parliament - said that Russia produced 1,530 tanks and 2,518 armored fighting vehicles in 2023. According to him, this means that tank production will increase by 560%, infantry fighting vehicles by 360% and armored personnel carriers by 350% since February 2022.

F-16s and other weapons could help Ukraine regain control of its airspace

Kyiv Independent reported that at a press conference with his Lithuanian counterpart, Gabrielius Landsbergis, in Kiev on January 27, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba believes that it is realistic for the country to regain control of its airspace by 2024.

Earlier on January 26, Foreign Minister Kuleba said that preparations for the transfer of F-16 fighter jets from Denmark to Ukraine were proceeding as planned. In mid-August 2023, Denmark committed to providing Ukraine with 19 F-16s, with the first batch of six expected to be delivered in the spring of 2024 and the remainder in 2025. Ukraine is also expecting F-16s from the Netherlands.

Danish Air Force F-16 fighter jet (Photo: Danish Ministry of Defense).

UK Ministry of Defense: Avdiivka unlikely to fall into Russian hands in coming weeks

The BBC reported that the British Ministry of Defense - in an intelligence report on January 27 - said that despite Russia's efforts to overcome the defense system in Avdiivka, Ukrainian defense forces are likely to defend the city for at least the coming weeks.

Russia stepped up its attacks on Avdiivka in October 2023, however, they are said to have suffered heavy losses in their efforts to encircle the frontline city just a few kilometers from Donetsk.

"Russian forces are believed to be attempting to bypass Ukrainian fortifications by entering the city's outskirts through tunnels, a method of infiltration they have attempted since October 2023," the UK Ministry of Defence said.

"Ukrainian counterattacks are preventing Russian forces from advancing further into the city. As the main supply route remains intact and Ukrainian forces carry out local counterattacks, Avdiivka may remain under Kiev's control in the coming weeks," the report said.

Earlier this week, it was reported that the situation around Avdiivka had deteriorated as Russian forces reportedly began advancing on Ukraine's defenses from the south.

The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on January 21 that Russian forces entered the Tsarska Okhota entertainment area along Soborna Street south of Avdiivka.

On January 26, the BBC reported that Ukrainian counterattacks had likely pushed back Russian forces, and the head of the city's military administration, Vitalii Barabash, said that Tsarska Okhota and Soborna Street were in Ukrainian hands.

A group of Russian forces had also sneaked into the city to try to establish a foothold, BBC sources said. Mr Barabash confirmed the report but said they were small reconnaissance units and had been repelled.

In addition, Russian forces achieved some local successes such as capturing the village of Krokhmalne in Kharkov on 21 January and Vesele, near Bakhmut in Donetsk, on 18 January, but the British Ministry of Defence considered them to be of no strategic significance.

The war in Ukraine at Avdiivka is taking place very fiercely (Illustration photo: CinCAFU).

US President to meet German Chancellor to discuss aid to Ukraine

US President Joe Biden will host German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the White House on February 9 to discuss aid to Ukraine, among other issues, AP reported.

"The two leaders will reaffirm their unwavering support for the defense of Ukraine's land and people from Russian aggression," the White House said in a statement on January 27.

Washington has sent Ukraine $111 billion in weapons, humanitarian assistance and other aid. However, disagreements between Congress and the White House have stymied Mr. Biden’s proposal for $61 billion in new aid to Ukraine.

The European Commission has proposed providing Ukraine with 50 billion euros ($55 billion), with 26 of the bloc's 27 national leaders in favor, but Hungary has used its veto to block it. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is considered Putin's closest ally in the EU.

EU leaders are expected to meet again on February 1 to discuss the financial package.

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Biden and Scholz will also discuss the Israel-Hamas war. The leaders will discuss “efforts to prevent regional escalation in the Middle East, their steadfast support for Israel’s right to self-defense, and the urgency of increasing life-saving assistance and protecting civilians from harm in Gaza.

According to AP, BBC, The Telegraph, Kyiv Independent, Ukrainska Pravda, RVvoenkory, Military Summary

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/the-gioi/chien-su-ukraine-281-nga-tien-nhanh-ro-tin-kiev-rut-hang-loat-o-kupyansk-20240128073509398.htm