Ukraine War 23/1: Kiev's strongest defense line in Avdiivka collapses

Russia is attacking strongly on almost all fronts and making new advances against Ukrainian forces (Illustration: Skynews).

Russia destroys Ukraine's strongest defense line in Avdiivka

The Military Summary, Geroman and Suriyakmaps channels simultaneously reported that Ukraine's most fortified defense line near Avdiivka had fallen. Facing the strong attack of the Russian army, with the risk of being surrounded, Kiev forces were forced to retreat from the old air defense base in the south of the city.

The entire fortified area is now under the complete control of Moscow forces, creating a favorable springboard for them to develop an offensive on the center of Avdiivka from the southeast.

RVvoenkory channel reported in more detail that the Russian army launched a strong attack, breaking through the enemy's defenses to enter the city center of Avdiivka.

In the south, Russian infantry, supported by tanks and aircraft, broke through a powerful defensive center, drove Ukrainian forces from major strongholds, and then rapidly advanced along Chernyshevsky and Sportivnaya streets to the west.

Ukrainian military analysts acknowledged the Russian advance, writing: "Armored tank groups with large numbers of infantry from Yasinovataya are trying to break through the forest along the Sobornaya road... South of the city, the Russians are making noticeable progress."

Map of the Ukrainian war in southern Avdiivka as of January 22. Russia controls the brown area, the red arrows are the direction of their attack, and the red box is where Moscow forces have just taken control after Ukrainian troops retreated according to the yellow arrow (Photo: Military Summary).

Analyst Mikael Valtersson, who supports Kiev, said that Ukraine will most likely have to withdraw its troops from Avdiivka due to a lack of logistical supplies. Specifically, if you look at the map of the roads leading into the city, it seems that there are many options, although almost all roads end at the coal-chemical plant north of Avdiivka.

But if you move a little further out you will see that the main supply routes have two branches, Novobakhmutivka to the north and Netailove to the south. Both of these places are threatened by Russian thrusts that are only about 3km away.

In the worst case scenario for Ukraine, both supply centers could be captured in the next few days. This is unlikely, but Kiev forces must still be prepared. Currently, supply routes south from Berdychi and east from Severne are unusable.

While there are a few minor roads that could be used in a worst case scenario, they all end at Novoselivka Persha. The road heading east from Novoselivka would act as a bottleneck, if Russia established fire control over the area, it would be very difficult for Ukraine to support Avdiivka.

Map of the Ukrainian war in Avdiivka as of January 22. Russia controls the pink part, the red arrows are their attack directions and the roads leading to Avdiivka are yellow, green and purple (Photo: Mikael Valtersson).

Obviously the current logistical problems as well as the risk of much worse situations may be a major factor that could lead Ukraine to decide to abandon Avdiivka.

Geroman Channel reported that, in the face of fierce Russian attacks, Ukrainian armed forces are retreating from the outskirts to the city center. The channel predicted that the Ukrainian army may retreat to hold urban areas, while trying to protect a corridor so that if they cannot hold on any longer, they still have a way to retreat.

Map of the Ukrainian war in Avdiivka as of January 22. Russian troops have surrounded the city on three sides and are advancing into the city center, Kiev forces may retreat to the yellow lines (Photo: Geroman).

Russian tanks attack in Lugansk

Geroman channel reported that in the Lugansk direction, the offensive of the 1st Guards Tank Corps of Russia continued as motorized assault forces penetrated the settlements of Tobaevka, Krokhmalnoye and Berestovoe.

On the northern flank, Russia has taken control of another hill, reaching the village of Kotlyarevka. Fighting also continues southeast of Berestovoe, where Ukraine has launched a counterattack with reserve forces, and fighting is fierce there.

Map of the Ukrainian war in Lugansk as of January 22. In which, Russia controls the right part of the red front line, the arrows show the direction of their attack and the areas surrounded by the dashed line are where Moscow forces have just gained control (Photo: Telegram).

Ukrainian General Staff: Russia tries to eliminate bridgehead in Dnieper

Ukrainska Pravda reported that the Ukrainian General Staff reported on the evening of January 22 that there had been 53 clashes on the front in the past 24 hours, with Russian forces trying to advance on the left bank of the Dnieper River to eliminate the bridgehead at the village of Krynki.

The report said: "In the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian air force has carried out attacks on eight areas where enemy personnel and weapons are concentrated. Missile units attacked one control point, destroyed one Russian artillery piece and one radar station. In addition, one enemy Kh-59 missile was destroyed by Ukrainian air defense."

The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed that defense forces repelled most of the Russian attacks in Kupyansk, Liman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka and Zaporizhia.

The enemy did not give up the intention to push the Ukrainian units away from the bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnieper River, however, their attacks were unsuccessful, the report said.

General Syrsky: The situation between Seversky and Bakhmut is extremely tense.

Ukrainska Pravda reported that the Commander of the Ukrainian Army, Colonel General Alexander Syrsky, announced that the situation in the Seversky and Bakhmut directions remained extremely tense, with Russia using a lot of artillery fire, mortars, and drones to support the assault.

According to General Syrsky, while working with the brigade commanders in this direction, he heard assessments of the situation as well as proposals for further operations. In addition, all necessary decisions were made on the spot to increase the effectiveness of defense.

General Syrsky at the Ukrainian defense line in the city of Soledar (Photo: Reuters).

ISW: Russian air defenses may not be prepared for Ukrainian attacks

The Kyiv Independent reported that Russia's air defense network in Leningrad Oblast may not be well-positioned to protect the region from attacks from the south, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in a report on January 21.

ISW said air defense systems in Leningrad Oblast may not be well-equipped to counter attacks from Ukraine. “Historically, Russia has deployed air defenses in the region to protect against hypothetical NATO attacks,” the analysts wrote.

Russian forces are building a “Leningrad military district” along the border with Finland to counter NATO members and possibly prepare for a future war with the alliance. Continued Ukrainian attacks on Russian military facilities in the region could force Moscow to change tactics.

“Ukrainian attacks in Leningrad Oblast may prompt Russian forces to redeploy short-range air defense systems along the expected flight path of Ukrainian UAVs to protect strategically valuable targets,” ISW said.

Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat said on January 20 that Russian air defense systems are capable of protecting a string of targets near the front line and in the Crimean peninsula, but are not enough to protect targets on Russian territory.

“Russian air defense is weakening. They fill the frontline and Crimea, but you see that Russian territory does not have much air defense equipment,” said Mr. Ihnat.

According to ISW, if Ukraine continues to target areas deep inside Russia, it could “increase pressure on Russia's air defense system in general.”

Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense missile-gun complex fires (Photo: Russian Ministry of Defense).

White House: Next few months will be critical for Ukraine

Ukrinform reported that White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on January 22 that the fighting in Ukraine in the coming months will be critical to the country's defense capabilities, so the US Congress must act quickly to support Ukraine.

Mr. Kirby stressed that Russia continues to attack with UAVs and missiles. Therefore, the Ukrainian command is having to make difficult decisions about what weapons and ammunition to use as their reserves are depleted.

Therefore, he noted that the US administration is committed to bringing victory to Ukraine, "and we want to be able to continue to provide Kiev with the necessary support so that it can achieve these results."

Zelensky: Poland provides new military aid package to Ukraine

European Pravda reported that Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, after meeting with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk during his visit to Kiev, said that Poland will transfer a new package of weapons to Kiev.

"There is a new Polish defense package. We appreciate such continued support. There is a new form of our interaction aimed at larger-scale purchases of weapons for Ukraine's needs, this is a Polish loan to Ukraine," Zelensky said.

According to him, the two leaders held "very productive" talks on all aspects of bilateral relations between Ukraine and Poland. "Today we discussed with the Prime Minister the possibility of joint production of weapons in the future. Thank you for supporting Ukraine!", Mr. Zelensky said.

Ukrainian tanks participate in the counterattack (Photo: Domena publiczna).

Belgium pledges $665 million in military aid to Ukraine in 2024

After a phone call with his Belgian counterpart Ludivine Dedonder on January 22, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said Belgium has pledged to provide 611 million euros ($665 million) in military aid to Ukraine by 2024, Kyiv Independent reported.

The announcement is significant because the figure is larger than the total amount Belgium has provided to Ukraine since the start of hostilities, 496 million euros ($540 million).

According to the Belgian government's Foreign Affairs website, the country has allocated 1.7 billion euros ($1.8 billion) to support Ukraine until the end of 2025.

Belgium is one of 11 founding countries of a "fighter alliance" set up in July to train Ukrainians to operate F-16s, and has pledged to provide some fighter jets to Kiev.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/the-gioi/chien-su-ukraine-231-phong-tuyen-manh-nhat-cua-kiev-o-avdiivka-sup-do-20240123102838565.htm