The Ministry of Planning and Investment assessed scenarios 1 and 3 of a 350 km/h passenger and freight railway as unreasonable in the investment plan.
The Ministry of Transport is seeking opinions from the Steering Committee for the development and implementation of the North-South high-speed railway investment policy project on three North-South railway scenarios.
Three high-speed rail scenarios. Graphics: Dang Hieu
Scenario 1 is to invest in building a new double-track North-South high-speed railway, 1,435 mm gauge, 1,545 km long, designed speed 350 km/h, load capacity 17 tons per axle, only for passenger trains. The existing North-South railway is upgraded to carry goods. The total investment capital is about 67.32 billion USD.
Scenario 2 is Construct a new double-track North-South railway line, 1,435 mm gauge, 22.5 tons per axle, operating both passenger and freight trains, design speed 200-250 km/h, maximum freight train speed 120 km/h. Total investment capital is about 72.02 billion USD.
Scenario 3 is to invest in a double-track North-South railway line, with a gauge of 1,435 mm, a load capacity of 22.5 tons per axle, a design speed of 350 km/h, operating passenger trains and reserve for freight transport when needed. The total investment capital of the project is 68.98 billion USD. If investing in infrastructure, equipment, and vehicles to operate freight trains running North-South, the project investment capital is about 71.69 billion USD.
High-speed train in Laos. Photo: Xinhua
Of the three options, the Ministry of Transport proposed choosing scenario 3 with a number of specific mechanisms and policies to shorten the progress, mobilize investment capital, and train human resources.
Commenting on the options, the Ministry of Planning and Investment assessed that scenarios 1 and 3 "do not meet the requirements" according to the direction of the Government Party Committee at the October 2022 meeting, which is to "submit to the Politburo for orientation on modern railway development, with the scenario of investing in a double-track North-South high-speed railway, gauge 1,435 for passenger and cargo transport, design speed of about 200-250 km/h, operating speed of about 200 km/h".
According to the Ministry of Planning and Investment, scenario 3 also has an unreasonable point in that the investment plan has a design speed of 350 km/h but the total project investment (71.69 billion USD if carrying passengers and reserve for carrying goods) is lower than scenario 2 (72.02 billion USD) with a design speed of 250 km/h; there is no content related to the freight transport plan, the basis for calculating internal return indexes, benefit-cost indexes...
"According to international experience, there is currently no high-speed railway line in the world with a design speed of 350 km/h that can transport a mixture of passengers and goods," the Ministry of Planning and Investment commented.
According to the Ministry, through the study trip to Germany, Spain, and China, it shows that countries that have developed railways with speeds of over 300 km/h are all countries that have mastered high-speed railway technology. When investing in developing high-speed railways, these countries already have a complete freight railway network and a GDP many times higher than Vietnam.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Transport’s proposal has not mentioned the development of the railway industry towards technology mastery. Therefore, the Ministry of Planning and Investment proposed to clarify the proposal to develop the railway industry and create human resources, diversify loan sources for the project so as not to depend on technology from the lender.
Regarding the design axle load, scenario 3 mentions a design load of 22.5 tons/axle, but in reality, according to the experience of countries around the world, the design axle load of high-speed passenger railways is 17 tons/axle, and the standard axle load of Chinese freight trains is 23 tons/axle. Therefore, it is necessary to clarify the basis for choosing the design load to ensure international compliance.
The Ministry of Planning and Investment cited the advantage of high-speed trains of 200 km/h, carrying both passengers and goods. High-speed railway projects in Japan are preparing to be put into operation, but are only designed for speeds of 250-260 km/h. New generation high-speed trains, optimizing operating costs such as Siemens has developed the ICE4 train with a maximum operating speed of 250 km/h, Alstom has started producing new generation trains with a speed of 250 km/h for Nordic countries.
This content was once suggested by the Ministry of Planning and Investment to the Ministry of Transport at the end of 2022 as a plan to build a North-South railway with an operating speed of 180-225 km per hour, transporting passengers and goods, with an investment cost of about 64.8 billion USD.
The Ministry also pointed out that the current imbalance in the North-South transport axis means that the high-speed railway project is very important in forming a large-volume transport axis on land, creating momentum for socio-economic development of the country and localities. Therefore, the choice of investment scenario will determine the success or failure of the project, as well as the development of Vietnam's railway system.
However, different from the view of the Ministry of Planning and Investment, the Ministry of Construction recently agreed with scenario 3. According to the Ministry of Transport, the advantage of scenario 3 is that passenger trains with speeds of over 300 km/h use modern technology and high speed, so they can compete with other means of transport, and the transport market share on the North-South corridor is restructured in a more optimal direction.
In addition, this option has the ability to transport goods in case the capacity of the North-South railway line is upgraded to transport goods is overloaded. At that time, the freight train is arranged to run at night at a speed of 160 km/h while passenger trains stop operating, so it does not affect operational safety.
In 2019, the Ministry of Transport submitted to the Government a pre-feasibility report on the North-South high-speed railway project. This is a 1,435 mm gauge double-track line, electrified, with a design speed of 350 km/h and an operating speed of 320 km/h. The Government has established a State Appraisal Council to review this project.
In October 2022, the meeting of the Government Party Committee concluded: "Agree to submit to the Politburo for the orientation of developing railways in a modern direction, with the scenario of investing in a North-South high-speed railway, double track with a gauge of 1,435mm for transporting passengers and goods, with a design speed of about 200-250 km/h".
The Politburo's conclusion in March required the construction of a synchronous, efficient high-speed railway line with a long-term strategic vision; the goal is to complete it before 2045.
In the middle of the year, the Ministry of Transport and a number of relevant agencies studied experiences in several European and Asian countries and researched three investment scenarios for the North-South high-speed railway.
In October, the Prime Minister established a Steering Committee to develop and implement the North-South high-speed railway investment policy project, in which the Ministry of Transport was assigned as the standing agency, to consult with members of the Steering Committee on investment scenarios. In the following meeting, Deputy Prime Minister Tran Hong Ha, Head of the Steering Committee, said that the development of the North-South high-speed railway must be synchronous, modern, in line with world trends, with a design speed of 350 km/h.
Doan Loan
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