The attack by the Hamas Movement on Israel has created a huge shock. Is Hamas deliberately trying to "hit a rock with an egg" or is there some calculation at hand?
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| Hamas militants and an Israeli tank were destroyed. |
"False red flags" mislead intelligence
Hamas's attack on Israel on October 7 was shocking not only because of its surprise but also because of the unprecedented events surrounding the attack: the Israeli intelligence community's failure to anticipate it; the Israeli military's initial lack of a quick response; and the militia's success in the first hours.
Although it is too early to determine the cause of these situations, educated guesses can be made.
Clearly, Israel did not foresee the intense conflict that was about to unfold. In recent years, the Israeli intelligence community has focused primarily on Iran and its border areas with Syria and Lebanon.
Israel essentially uses its intelligence capabilities primarily to counter the development of Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs, and to prevent the transfer of advanced military equipment from Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon via Syria.
The shift in the Israeli intelligence community is reflected in Tel Aviv's recent heightened vigilance regarding Iran and Hezbollah's construction of an airport in southern Lebanon, the activities of the Iran-backed Hussein Brigades in Syria, and Hezbollah's setting up of a camp in the city of Ghajar.
It can therefore be argued that Hamas and its supporters, primarily Iran and Hezbollah, are misleading Israel. As of now, Israel and other sources do not know exactly what is inside the Hezbollah camp, leading some to speculate whether it is a “false red flag” operation.
Just three weeks ago, on September 12, the so-called Joint Operations Room in the Gaza Strip, which includes Palestinian resistance forces led by Hamas’s military wing, the al-Qassam Brigades, conducted an exercise that included rehearsing large-scale rocket attacks, using drone strike capabilities, and perfecting urban guerrilla warfare techniques.
All of these tactics were used in the current attack, however, the Israeli intelligence community failed to anticipate the attack.
Aside from being misdirected, it seems that Israel in the recent attack did not demonstrate its main advantage: the element of surprise.
Strategic paralysis
In most conflicts, Israel has the advantage of surprising its opponents with massive airstrikes to achieve its goal of “strategic paralysis.” However, in this conflict, Hamas not only deprived Israel of that advantage, but also left the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) with no time to react.
The Hamas Islamist movement has used a Blitzkrieg-like strategy - a blitzkrieg, concentrating forces at specific penetration points, then advancing rapidly, followed by successive raids behind Israel's defenses.
In addition, Hamas appears to have attempted to sow public confusion and distract the Israeli military by launching attacks by sea and air.
Hamas’s tactical innovations also include the use of new weapons and unprecedented deployment of firepower. Learning from the 2021 conflict with Israel, Hamas realized that, although it could not overcome the Iron Dome missile defense system (Israel) technologically, it could neutralize it with a “rocket rain”.
By concentrating its firepower, launching numerous rockets, artillery shells and suicide drones at Israeli territory, Hamas hopes to overwhelm the Iron Dome’s capabilities. Learning from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Hamas has used hard-to-detect quadcopter drones to target Israeli troops and observation posts.
In this conflict, Hamas appears to be trying to neutralize key Israeli advantages such as air superiority, by taking hundreds of Israelis hostage.
The main goal of the hostage-taking may be to use it as a bargaining chip in future negotiations – as Hamas leaders have claimed they have enough hostages to force Israel to release all Palestinian prisoners.
However, it should be noted that Hamas may be holding hostages in bunkers and tunnels. This tactic not only restricts the freedom of movement of the Israeli air force but also increases the potential for secondary losses.
In previous conflicts, militias have stored ammunition and soldiers in civilian areas to act as human shields. Hamas has now created a double-edged sword: If Israel attacks, its citizens will be at risk; if it does not attack, Israel will continue to face Palestinian attacks.
Ultimately, despite these tactics, the asymmetry in military capabilities between Israel and Hamas is clear.
The IDF has absolute superiority in every aspect, which begs the question: Why is the attack being launched? For now, it seems that Hamas is hoping that, by using the hostages, it can pressure Israel to ease restrictions on the Gaza Strip or release prisoners.
Furthermore, any Hamas action could be part of a larger strategy, to provoke and draw the DIF forces into a conflict of attrition. Obviously, only time will tell!
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