Continuous trade surplus helps stabilize exchange rates and macroeconomic indicators!

Import and export exceeds 600 billion USD mark, record trade surplus What do experts say about the record trade surplus in 2023?

Import-export turnover in 2023 will reach nearly 700 billion USD, lower than the record figure of 730.28 billion USD in 2022. What is your comment on this figure?

Figures recently released by the Ministry of Industry and Trade show that total import-export turnover in 2023 is estimated at 683 billion USD, of which exports are estimated at 354.5 billion USD and imports are estimated at 328.5 billion USD.

In 2023, the trade balance continues to record a trade surplus for the 8th consecutive year.

Thus, the trade balance continued to record a trade surplus for the 8th consecutive year with an estimated surplus of 26 billion USD, nearly 3 times higher than in 2022 , contributing positively to the balance of payments, helping to increase foreign exchange reserves, stabilize exchange rates and other macroeconomic indicators of the economy.

In 2023, the export of many items such as electronics, components, textiles, footwear, wooden furniture, etc. did not achieve the desired results. In the context of very strong changes in the world market, but import and export activities reached the same level as in 2022, which is also the effort of ministries, departments, branches, and state management agencies in promoting market access, promoting brands, and promoting related factors in import and export activities. Along with that, businesses have made efforts to actively take advantage of opportunities from the recovery of large, traditional markets to boost exports.

Notably, in the context of the world economy continuing to grow slowly and global aggregate demand decreasing, Vietnam's goods export activities continue to overcome difficulties. Although it has not yet achieved an increase compared to the previous year, the decline continues to narrow.

Accordingly, the decline in exports is increasingly narrowed from a 12% decrease in the first half of 2023 to a decrease of about 4.6% in the whole of 2023.

In export activities, we have done well in diversifying markets in the context of declining exports to major markets; export turnover to African countries, Eastern Europe, Northern Europe, and West Asia has increased ; the export decline in some key markets continues to narrow.

Specifically, exports to the US market will narrow from a decrease of 22.6% in the first half of 2023 to a decrease of about 11.2% in the whole year of 2023; the EU will narrow from a decrease of 10.1% in the first half of 2023 to about 4.8% in the whole year of 2023; South Korea will narrow from a decrease of 10.2% to about 2.5%...

Notably, our country's exports to the Chinese market reversed from a decrease of 2.2% in the first 6 months of the year to an increase of about 8.1% in the whole year of 2023, while other major markets all decreased.

The domestic economic sector continues to make efforts to maintain and expand export markets in the context of many difficulties in the global economy. The export decline of this sector in 2023 (estimated to decrease by 0.9%) is much lower than the export decline of the foreign-invested sector (including crude oil) (estimated to decrease by 5.9%) and lower than the overall export turnover decline of the whole country (estimated to decrease by 4.6%).

Many agricultural products, rice, and fruits took advantage of the opportunity to open the market and increase prices to boost exports. This is the only product group that recorded an increase compared to the same period last year (estimated to increase by 4.8% for the whole year).

The structure of export goods continues to improve in a positive direction, reducing the content of raw exports, increasing the export of processed products and industrial products, creating conditions for Vietnamese goods to participate more deeply in the global production and supply chain.

Many export enterprises shared that they summarized 2023 with two words: "challenges", in which "greening" was the most mentioned topic throughout the past year. In your opinion, how have businesses adapted?

In 2023, the issue of green production, green consumption, and sustainable development has been talked about quite a lot. Many markets have introduced stricter standards, such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) or the European Commission's (EC) Anti-Deforestation Regulation (EUDR).

Chuyên gia kinh tế, PGS.TS Đinh Trọng Thịnh (Học viện Tài chính)

Economist, Associate Professor, Dr. Dinh Trong Thinh

We must meet the requirements of green production, which is a practical requirement. Obviously, in 2023, in some industries, the lack of orders is not only due to the slow innovation of designs and models, but also because we have not yet adapted to and met the green standards in some developed markets.

Vietnam is a country that relies on imports and exports as a growth driver. We have had more than a year for industries such as textiles, footwear, iron and steel, wood, etc. to regain control of the situation in traditional markets, as well as expand in markets with which we have signed FTAs and other markets.

In addition, we also see that in the last months of the year, the number of newly established enterprises is higher, the number of enterprises closing down and ceasing production is significantly reduced. Therefore, import-export activities in 2024 are expected to be better.

Regarding the domestic market, although there are many stimulus policies, it is still unstable. However, we hope that with policies on reducing VAT, reducing fees and charges, domestic consumption in 2024 will record higher growth. On that basis, it will push production and business activities more smoothly, consume goods better, and reduce inventory.

We expect that in 2024, we will see higher growth in both import and export, domestic consumption and achieve the goals set by the National Assembly and the Government, which is GDP growth of 6 - 6.5%, thereby creating a foundation for the coming time.

In 2023, the success of the international economic foreign policy was clearly demonstrated through a series of visits to Vietnam by leaders of leading economies. How will this open up great opportunities for Vietnam's import and export activities, sir?

The United States is Vietnam's largest export partner. The upgrading of Vietnam-US relations to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership has created favorable conditions for Vietnamese enterprises to access the US market and boost import-export activities.

In fact, in 2022, Vietnam's exports to the US market decreased sharply, at times down to 30% compared to the same period last year. However, after US President Joe Biden's visit to Vietnam, Vietnam's import and export volume to the US increased. Obviously, this has created favorable conditions for trade and investment connection activities between the two countries. The US management agency also understands Vietnam better and the policies of the Vietnamese Government.

Previously, some US agencies put Vietnam back on the "currency manipulation monitoring" list. However, Vietnam also affirmed that we do not devalue the currency to compete in unfair trade, Vietnam is a country that maintains the stability of the Vietnamese currency. US regulatory agencies have also noted this.

With China, this is a country that Vietnam exports relatively large, but in terms of imports, this is the partner that Vietnam imports the most from. Every year, we have the largest trade deficit with China.

During the recent visit to Vietnam by General Secretary and President of China Xi Jinping, the two sides signed 36 cooperation documents in many fields, at the central and local levels, creating a framework for long-term cooperation and enriching the content of cooperation between the two countries.

Among them, there are some industries that Vietnam is focusing on and developing, and many large corporations in the world are interested in such as electricity, electronics, spare parts, etc. This will be an opportunity for Vietnamese enterprises to better access the Chinese market in both export and import. At the same time, it will reduce the trade deficit between Vietnam and China.

Particularly in investment, recently, China has emerged as the leading country in direct investment in Vietnam and is currently in the Top 5 countries investing in Vietnam.

Obviously, the Vietnam-China Comprehensive Strategic Partnership signed a long time ago has now been raised to a new level and on the basis of mutual understanding between the two sides, there will be long-term cooperation in both investment and trade between the two countries.

Thank you!

Source link