Global rice exports to increase to 56.3 million tons
On October 22, citing data from the October 2024 Rice Outlook Report recently released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), the Vietnam Trade Office in Houston (USA) said that global rice prices are expected to decrease in 2025 due to increased supply.
On September 28, right after the Indian government suspended the more than 14-month ban on non-basmati milled rice exports, and one day after reducing the export tax on parboiled and brown rice from 20% to 10%, the USDA revised India's 2025 rice export forecast up 3 million tons to 21 million tons, while the rice export forecast for Brazil, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam was lowered.
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| Global rice exports in 2025 will increase to 56.3 million tons, 2.3 million tons higher than the previously announced forecast. Illustrative photo |
Import forecasts for 2025 are raised for several countries due to lower expected prices and larger export supplies, with China, Nepal and the Philippines forecast to see the largest increases.
India, the world’s largest rice exporter, has lifted its ban on exports of non-Basmati regular white rice, ushering in a period of abundant supply and more affordable prices for global consumers. India’s return to the market is expected to help stabilize global rice prices, benefiting importing countries.
Also according to the USDA Report, global rice production in the 2024-2025 crop season is expected to reach a record 530.4 million tons, an increase of 3.1 million tons compared to the previous forecast.
India contributed significantly to this growth, along with other countries such as Egypt, Guyana, Japan and Venezuela. The Philippines was the only exception with a forecast decline in output.
For the US rice market, the forecast for US rice production in the 2024-2025 crop year was adjusted up slightly to 219.8 million US quintals (1 US quintal equals 100 pounds, equivalent to about 45.36 kg), the highest level since the 2020-2021 crop year.
The country’s rice imports are expected to hit a record 46.5 million US quintals. Total rice exports are expected to reach 101 million US quintals, up 3% from a year ago and the highest since the 2016-2017 season.
The USDA report paints an optimistic picture for the global rice market in 2025. More abundant supplies, more competitive prices, and stable demand are expected to benefit consumers and contribute to global food security. However, it also signals that competition is increasing in the global rice market.
Vietnamese rice price is the most expensive in the world
According to the General Department of Customs, in the first 9 months of 2024, Vietnam's rice export volume reached 7 million tons, worth 4.37 billion USD. Our country's total rice export turnover increased by 23.5% over the same period.
Recently, at the end of September, India officially relaxed the export of white rice, making the supply more abundant. The increased supply caused the export price of rice from countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, and Pakistan to decrease.
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| Vietnam's rice export price is still the most expensive in the world. Illustrative photo |
According to the assessment of the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), on October 18, the price of 5% broken rice in Vietnam was at 534 USD/ton, unchanged from the previous session, especially the export price of our country is still 30 USD/ton higher than the price of the same type of rice from Thailand. It is still holding the most expensive position in the world. Thus, our rice price has been adjusted down according to the general trend of the world market but is still maintaining the mark of 530 USD/ton, a mark that according to experts still harmonizes the interests of farmers and export enterprises.
The same type of rice is 5% broken rice, but according to experts, the quality of Vietnamese rice has an advantage in terms of deliciousness and freshness, so it is more suitable for consumers' taste than competitors. In addition, from now until the end of the year is also a period of increasing demand from our traditional customers such as China, Indonesia, Philippines, Singapore.
Mr. Hoang Trong Thuy - Agricultural expert said, China imported rice in the last four months of the year, including 5% broken rice and regular rice for processing, therefore, businesses that import 5% broken rice should take advantage of the Chinese market and find niche markets, we still focus on Korea, Japan, the EU, and the US.
According to the assessment of rice exporting enterprises, in addition to white rice, high-grade rice products such as fragrant rice, sticky rice, and ST25 rice will not be affected by India's reopening of rice exports because the demand for Vietnamese rice in this segment is still positive in markets from Japan, Europe, and Korea.
Source: https://congthuong.vn/xuat-khau-gao-toan-cau-nam-2025-du-bao-dat-563-trieu-tan-354032.html
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