Coffee exports have continuously achieved remarkable records in terms of turnover and value since the beginning of the year. At the same time, they also promise new records in the near future.
Exports exceed $5 billion for the first time in a crop year
According to the latest information from the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, in the 2023-2024 crop year (from October 2023 to September 2024), Vietnam exported about 1.46 million tons of coffee with a value of 5.43 billion USD.
This is the highest export turnover in a coffee crop year ever and also the first time it has exceeded the 5 billion USD mark.
In fact, although the volume of coffee exports decreased by 12.1% compared to the 2022-2023 crop year, the turnover increased by over 33%.
Notably, the export price of this item has continuously increased sharply in recent times. In the whole crop year 2023 - 2024, the average export price of coffee reached 3,673 USD/ton, nearly 50% higher than the crop year 2022 - 2023.
According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, with the above increase, coffee is currently the agricultural product with the strongest price increase among Vietnam's key agricultural export products.
According to the General Department of Customs, from the beginning of the year to October 15, Vietnam exported 1.13 million tons of coffee with a turnover of 4.44 billion USD, down 11.1% in volume but up 39.1% in value compared to the same period in 2023.
Thus, on average in the first 9 months of 2024, the average export price of Vietnamese coffee reached 3,896 USD/ton, an increase of 56% over the same period last year. In September 2024 alone, the average export price of coffee reached 5,469 USD/ton, the highest export price ever.
EU continues to lead in import turnover
Statistics from the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association show that the European Union (EU) continues to be Vietnam's largest coffee export market in the 2023-2024 crop year, with a value of 2 billion USD, an increase of 41% over the previous crop year, accounting for 38% in volume and 37% in value in Vietnam's coffee exports.
Next, Germany, Italy and Spain were the three largest single markets for Vietnamese coffee in the last crop year.
Besides, some other major markets also increased sharply in turnover in the 2023-2024 crop year despite decreasing in volume, such as Japan (up 38%) and Russia (up 20%).
Forecast for the coming time, prices will remain high
According to a representative of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, the decrease in supply in the 2023-2024 crop year not only increases coffee prices but also affects the amount of coffee in stock to be transferred to the beginning of the 2024-2025 crop year. According to information from some traders, the amount of coffee in stock to be transferred to the new crop year 2024-2025 is almost non-existent.
Therefore, coffee prices at the beginning of the 2024 - 2025 crop year continue to remain high.
In fact, since the beginning of October, coffee prices in the Central Highlands have always been above 110,000 VND/kg, nearly twice as high as the price of coffee at the beginning of the 2023-2024 crop year.
Many businesses in the industry believe that Vietnamese coffee prices in the 2024-2025 crop year are forecast to remain high due to reduced output. Meanwhile, coffee consumption demand in Vietnam as well as in the world continues to increase. Coffee prices will hardly fall below VND100,000/kg in this new crop year.
Overcoming challenges to move forward sustainably
According to experts, businesses in the Vietnamese coffee supply chain are currently facing many challenges. The most obvious is the obstacle of cash flow for production. According to Mr. Le Van Duong - Vuong Duong Coffee Production and Export Company, the high price of raw materials has made the company quite struggling with capital. Meanwhile, many businesses like Vuong Duong still have to borrow from banks at high interest rates. Therefore, we really want to access better interest rates, to be given priority in interest rates to have enough capital to purchase coffee.
In the long term, the sustainability problem is very big. Rising prices stimulate farmers to pursue short-term benefits. This requires the direction of management agencies and multi-sectoral coordination in linking the value chain from producers to the final stage.
On the other hand, according to Mr. Le Thanh Tung - Deputy Director of the Department of Crop Production, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, in 2024, the shortage of domestic supply may increase due to the domestic inventory gradually depleting, while there are still 6 months left until the new harvest. This continues to be a significant challenge that the Vietnamese coffee industry has to face...
Regarding this issue, Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai, Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, also said that Vietnam's coffee supply is in short supply, while speculators have begun to stockpile goods, so coffee prices in the third quarter are expected to continue to increase.
Faced with this situation, experts say the short-term solution is to continue importing raw coffee from neighboring countries. This will help supplement raw materials for processing enterprises and ensure enough coffee for export.
"In the long term, we need to improve coffee cultivation and harvesting processes. The government and businesses can support farmers in applying advanced cultivation methods to increase productivity and promote early harvest... to reduce pressure on raw materials for exporting enterprises," a representative of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association emphasized.
At the same time, export enterprises should focus on enhancing the value of exported coffee products, increasing the proportion of deeply processed coffee to increase added value and reduce dependence on raw coffee exports...
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