How will the attack on former President Trump affect the 2024 US election?

The July 13 attack on leading US presidential candidate Donald Trump has shifted the focus of the election campaign to a whole new level, as Republicans accuse President Joe Biden and the Democrats of inciting hatred and failing to stop the attack.

US Secret Service agents immediately formed a human shield around former US President Donald Trump after the attack at an election rally in Pennsylvania on July 13. (Source: AP)

Republican lawmakers said they would launch swift investigations into how the gunman fooled Secret Service agents, climbed onto the roof of a building near where former President Donald Trump was speaking at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania on July 13 and fired multiple shots before being killed.

While details about the incident remain sparse, initial media reports indicated that the shooter was outside the campaign’s security perimeter. At least one person interviewed said he tried to alert police and the U.S. Secret Service, but to no avail.

Security failure

Trump supporters have criticized the Secret Service, the agency primarily responsible for protecting him as a former US president.

Even American billionaire Elon Musk, who is said to have donated a huge sum of money to support former President Trump's election campaign, called on the agency's leader to resign.

“How is it that a sniper with a full rifle is allowed to crawl onto a roof so close to a presidential candidate?” asked conservative activist Jack Posobiec on the social networking site X.

Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson said on social media that the House will request that US Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle and other officials from the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) appear at the hearing as soon as possible.

Immediately after the shooting, the Secret Service began an investigation and briefed current President Joe Biden, a Democrat who was Trump's opponent in the November election.

Ben Maser, a 41-year-old welder standing outside the Butler area, said he was listening to Trump speak when he noticed two officers trying to search for someone. He then helped the security agency sweep the area.

"I saw the suspect on the roof. I told the police officer that the suspect was up there. He then went to look for the suspect," Mr. Maser recalled.

Joseph LaSorsa, a former Secret Service agent who protected presidents, said the attack would certainly lead to a review of former President Trump's security and that in the future, he would likely be protected like a sitting president.

“There will be an ‘in-depth review’ of the incident. This cannot be allowed to happen,” Mr. LaSorsa said.

Mr Trump's assassination was the first shooting of a former US president or major party candidate since the assassination of former Republican President Ronald Reagan, who was in the White House from 1981 to 1989.

This raises immediate questions about security failures by the Secret Service, the agency that provides lifetime protection to former presidents, including Mr. Trump.

In a recent statement, the US Secret Service said the agency had added “resources and protective capabilities” to the former US President’s security plan, but did not provide further details.

The incident should prompt an internal review and, ideally, an external review, said a retired agent. “The severity of the incident requires a thorough review to prevent such failures in the future and ensure accountability at all levels,” the former agent said.

At most of Mr. Trump’s campaign stops, local police will typically assist the Secret Service in securing the site. Sometimes, they will be joined by related agencies such as DHS, the Transportation Security Administration, etc.

Ensuring security is no easy task when election campaigns often involve thousands of people, take place outdoors and last for hours.

Before each event, agents sweep the venue for bombs or other threats, and a heavily fortified motorcade always escorts former President Trump.

Law enforcement officials often set up barricades as perimeters and require all attendees to pass through metal detectors to enter the venue. Armed security guards search every bag and even the wallet of all attendees.

Paul Eckloff, a former Secret Service agent, said agents should have surveyed all rooftops with their sights. “The shooter either concealed himself until he became a threat, or he wasn’t a threat until he revealed his weapon.”

Immediately after the shocking attack, the former US President was quickly surrounded by Secret Service agents forming a human shield. Heavily armed agents wearing body armor and rifles approached the stage area and scanned the surrounding area for threats.

Mr Trump was then escorted by agents into a black SUV and taken straight to a local hospital.

Impact on the election

The calculation of who is likely to prevail in November has been thrown into disarray by Democrats questioning Mr Biden's health, sanity and determination to run despite his age.

After this shocking attack, Mr. Biden will now be under more pressure, and analysts say that the United States could fall into more political instability than ever.

“The central premise of President Biden’s campaign is to portray Trump as a fascist dictator who must be stopped at all costs. That rhetoric led directly to this attack,” Ohio Senator JD Vance, who was on Trump’s short list for vice president, commented on X.

US House Speaker Mike Johnson said Congress “will conduct a full investigation into the tragedy to determine where the security failures occurred.” Speaking on NBC News on the morning of July 14, the top Republican said it was time to “reject the rhetoric.”

The attack on former President Trump made the front page of a British newspaper on the morning of July 14. (Source: AP)

“We have to de-escalate. We need leaders of all parties to speak up and make sure that happens so we can move forward and maintain the free society that we are all so lucky to have,” Mr Johnson said.

Florida Sen. Rick Scott, another Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said that quick efforts to find answers would minimize the damage the attack has done to America's image.

Mr. Casey Burgat, director of the legislative affairs program at George Washington University (USA), said the attack will have a significant impact on the election and global perception of the stability of the United States.

“Domestically, this event has the potential to deepen partisan divisions and heighten political tensions. Internationally, the attack raises serious concerns about the safety and security of political figures in the United States and has the potential to undermine confidence in the country’s stability and democratic process,” Burgat commented.

Authorities have identified the gunman involved in the attack on former US President Donald Trump on July 13 as Thomas Matthew Crooks, 20, who was killed by Secret Service agents at the scene after the shooting.

Former President Donald Trump's plane landed at Newark Airport in New Jersey on the morning of July 14.

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